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Except you clearly don't have a concept of history. Check out the historical patterns of post-convention bounces. McCain's bounce is well within the historical norm. And bounces hardly predict who actually wins the election. Goldwater had a bigger bounce than LBJ, yet LBJ won by landslide. Carter and Mondale had bigger bounces than Reagan, yet Reagan won by landslide. So, yeah, feel free to wallow in your ignorance......
It's useless to argue with newbies who've never witnessed the election process before.
Since you mentioned Carter/Reagan, here's what Time has to say about that:
Quote:
For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.
But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote—a rout for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the Reagan victory was a 10-to-l avalanche that left the President holding only six states and the District of Columbia.
Those of us who have been around for a while have at least a minuscule understanding of voters.
Historically, it's people who scream loudest that change their minds most often, and at the last minute.
Statistics is about models and controlling for varibles, how the range of a possible outcome effects the outcome is irreleveant. Comparing polls in this race to past polls is a useless endeavor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf
Well, I think you have little to no knowledge of statistics. These bounces occur within a range. The numbers may range from -1% (Kerry) to +12% (Bill Clinton). 2.4% is well within the range, albeit on the low end. With regards to your intelligence, what can I say? I suspect you haven't benefited from Dubya's No Child Left Behind education program. I suggest you take advantage of it now before the Republicans are booted out of office.
Most of these polls have an advantage to the democrat. Rasmussen and Gallup both use approx 9 or 10% more dems than republicans.
Of course the Left is questioning them now. There are in their bubble and can't fathom how McCain could possibly be ahead of obama - unless someone is cheating.
Most of these polls have an advantage to the democrat. Rasmussen and Gallup both use approx 9 or 10% more dems than republicans.
Of course the Left is questioning them now. There are in their bubble and can't fathom how McCain could possibly be ahead of obama - unless someone is cheating.
Dems dont vote at the same percentage Republicans do. When they actually only show "likely voters" McCain is almost always ahead.
If that's all McCain got from his convention, then that's a rather weak bounce than usually happens.
Gallup had obama up by 8. McCain now leads by 5. That's a 13 point bounce.
USATodat/Gallup poll had obama by 3 with LV, McCain leads that by 10 now. Big bounce.
Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.
The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.
Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000.
As you can see, Obama's was the fourth weakest in the last 44 years.
Outside of Clinton, most of the ones who got a big bounce lost. Could it be that a big bounce is fleeting? A smaller bounce might be a good sign.
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