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Old 09-26-2008, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Austin
4,102 posts, read 7,350,580 times
Reputation: 2124

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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
So that's another can of worms for this election - considering the bradley affect.
A lot of McCain supporters are hoping that race has affected Obama's high polling numbers, but the Bradley Effect is an outdated idea.

"....the phenomenon has been absent in other recent high-profile races in which black and white candidates competed. In Harold Ford's unsuccessful 2006 bid for a U.S. Senate seat from Tennessee, for example, most of the polls actually underestimated his vote -- and overestimated the vote for Ford's white opponent, Bob Corker, who won by just three percentage points. Ford was hurt by a racist television ad, to be sure, but my point is that at least the polls were close to the mark."

Eugene Robinson - Echoes Of Tom Bradley - washingtonpost.com
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Old 09-26-2008, 09:28 AM
 
4,172 posts, read 5,980,082 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
I don't particular trust polls - remember in 2004, the exit polls were showing an easy win for Kerry. So that's another can of worms for this election - considering the bradley affect.
You may be right about the Bradley effect. Obama needs to have a comfortable lead going into the elections.
Regarding other comments on # of dems etc, there are very very easy ways to statistically treat such variances in the population being sampled. I am assuming most polling agencies have at least a few very good statisticians and experts in probability on their payroll.
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Old 09-26-2008, 09:28 AM
 
Location: Came-by-Chance
1,792 posts, read 1,168,787 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Yeah today's results will be out in an hour or so...
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:17 AM
 
Location: parrish florida
22 posts, read 43,629 times
Reputation: 11
why is race an issue? does the black in obama out number the white in him? i thought he was half black and half white. would it be different if he was married to a white woman? theres white trash and black trash. sen obama and sen mccain are neither. i personally would rather see colin powell and joe liberman on a ticket, with romney doing the financial aspect. im ok with mccain but palin is starting to seem unqualified to take over if neccesary. and then we have Biden. dont like him much either. on the issue of mccain dying. ok well its very possible, but then again you people with the bradley effect thing, dont you also think some redneck, backwoods, weirdo individual could act like a suicide bomber and go after obama? its possible too. Im really unsure who im voting for at this point. very confusing, i side with both parties on issues pretty much about 50 50. i dont go to church but i do believe in god. i support abortion but only in the 1st term. im all for drilling and selling it to other countries but want us to get off of it, im for socialized medicine but want it run like it is in France and not canada. health care is outrageous. insurance companies are pretty much thieves. I like obamas personality but am outraged over the wright sermons he participated in. He is a fresh face and mccains been around along time but i trust mccain more on foreign policy even though he needs a refresher course in geography. i just dont know.
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:28 AM
 
Location: parrish florida
22 posts, read 43,629 times
Reputation: 11
so now news says mccains going to debate. maybe they should do an emergency vote on this bailout plan. option A, B, and C. have it next tuesday and let the ppl decide. why dont we have any say so in this plan?
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Old 09-26-2008, 11:14 AM
 
Location: Came-by-Chance
1,792 posts, read 1,168,787 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
And the Gallup poll was tied yesterday, when obama had a 3 point lead the day before.
That was yesterday, today Obama has regained his 3 point lead!



Gallup Daily: Obama 48%, McCain 45%
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