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Old 09-26-2008, 10:33 AM
S65 S65 started this thread
 
92 posts, read 68,988 times
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"It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in McCain’s direction.

For most of Election 2008, McCain has attracted more support from Democrats than Obama earned from Republicans. That is no longer the case. Each man now attracts 12% of voters from the other political party.

McCain’s lead among white women is down to two-percentage points. This is a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago."

Obama getting 12% of the Republican vote is huge.
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
2,868 posts, read 8,638,226 times
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Good night McSame...
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:39 AM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,491 posts, read 7,863,226 times
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serious problem for McCain because John Kerry was not getting those percentages of republican support.
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Old 09-26-2008, 11:02 AM
S65 S65 started this thread
 
92 posts, read 68,988 times
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Bush got 94% of Republicans. Around 1% of Republicans will vote for third-parties. This would mean, if continued to election day, that McCain could get no better than 87% of Republicans -- 6% fewer than Bush did.

When you consider that there are around 4-5% fewer Republicans in 2004 than in 2008 (33% as opposed to 37% in 2004) according to Scott Rasmussen's constant polling, that's utterly fatal.

Unless McCain turns this dynamic around very quickly, he's going to be destroyed, not just defeated. Because those numbers point to a 5-10% win for Obama, and 330+ electoral votes.
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Old 09-26-2008, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,491 posts, read 7,863,226 times
Reputation: 619
Quote:
Originally Posted by S65 View Post
Bush got 94% of Republicans. Around 1% of Republicans will vote for third-parties. This would mean, if continued to election day, that McCain could get no better than 87% of Republicans -- 6% fewer than Bush did.

When you consider that there are around 4-5% fewer Republicans in 2004 than in 2008 (33% as opposed to 37% in 2004) according to Scott Rasmussen's constant polling, that's utterly fatal.

Unless McCain turns this dynamic around very quickly, he's going to be destroyed, not just defeated. Because those numbers point to a 5-10% win for Obama, and 330+ electoral votes.
It does spell bad news for McCain considering that Bush NARROWLY won in 2004.
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