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The popular vote will likely be close, but the electoral vote - not necessarily so. The structure of the electoral vote method of deciding who wins often results in landslides. I mean think about it - all any candidate would need to do is to win by 1 vote in each state to get 100& of the electoral votes - so a 50 vote advantage COULD (in theory) translate into the loser getting ZERO electoral votes and the winner getting them ALL. Now, obviously that's an extreme example and is NOT going to happen, but I think you get my drift (I hope so anyway). What COULD happen though is that Obama (or possibly even McCain (though it's very unlikely) could win all or nearly all of the battleground states by a very narrow margin - but by winning in all (or even most) come away with an impressive electoral win rather than a narrow margin.
That's the nature of the electoral vote system - blowouts can happen much more easily than they would if we used the popular vote to determine who wins. The way things are trending (assuming of course that they continue that way) Obama could have a near-landslide win (even if the popular vote is very close).
This map shows NC, Ohio, and Florida all virtual ties with Virginia slipping into the blue column. If Obama even gets one of these states its curtains for Mccain.
this is the scenario that would be a nightmare for republicans. If neither candidate gets a majority of the Electoral Votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. Senators would elect the Vice-President. The democrats control both the house and senate.. So there would be ALOT of BITTERLY and ANGRY republicans at this scenario. There is a high chance that this could happen too. If it does happen, say goodbye to the electoral college system because of the outrage by many people.
In this scenario the House would vote to pick Obama as president since the House has a democratic majority. But the senate picks the VP. The Senate has a majority by two people thanks to two independents. Joe Liberman is one of those independents and he supports the McCain Palin ticket. There is a possible scenario of having Obama has president and Palin as Vice-President. That would happen if Lieberman votes for Palin to be VP. That would mean there would be a tie in the senate and Dick Cheney would have to break that tie meaning its possible that Obama would be president and Sarah Palin as Vice President.
In this scenario the House would vote to pick Obama as president since the House has a democratic majority. But the senate picks the VP. The Senate has a majority by two people thanks to two independents. Joe Liberman is one of those independents and he supports the McCain Palin ticket. There is a possible scenario of having Obama has president and Palin as Vice-President. That would happen if Lieberman votes for Palin to be VP. That would mean there would be a tie in the senate and Dick Cheney would have to break that tie.
I am curious whether the Dems actually have the advantage in the House. I know Dems outnumber Reps in the House, but with each state getting one vote; there may actually be more states with Republican majorities than Dem majorities. If the Dems numbers come from few very populous states, and the Reps numbers come from many less populoust states, McCain could win.
I am curious whether the Dems actually have the advantage in the House. I know Dems outnumber Reps in the House, but with each state getting one vote; there may actually be more states with Republican majorities than Dem majorities. If the Dems numbers come from few very populous states, and the Reps numbers come from many less populoust states, McCain could win.
That depends on how many of the representives vote. If its one vote, one state, that could be an issue. it could also be an issue because half the states have laws that would require the representive to vote for the person in their state that won the popular vote in that scenario. So a republican in the house may end up voting for Obama. But honestly I dont want Obama winning this way. Lets hope it doesnt come to a tie. In this scenario, its possible we may not know who is president until the first week of January. Its really a nightmare scenario worse than what happened in 2000, but this time the republicans would be raging mad and feel like they have been cheated out of the election. The last thing we want is another divided country.
I think Obama will win Virginia and Ohio. I think Florida will go to McCain. I also think New Mexico and Colorado will go to Obama. McCain might even get Indiana and New Hampshire this time, but no matter. McCain will lose this election.
Everything is going Obama's way right now with the economy, financial situation, McCain's VP just not being the *right* choice, McCain making the mistake of "halting" his campaign for the financial debacle and not being able to pull anything together, and just the momentum of the country not wanting 4 more years of Bush.
Obama's got this...he truly does...he's just gotta keep on doing what he's been doing for 4 more weeks.
I dont know about you guys, but have you heard of the Bradley Effect??
Obama needs about 7 point lead in the polls to win.
If Obama is winning in the the polls, 3-5 points, he may not win that state.
I think Obama will win Virginia and Ohio. I think Florida will go to McCain. I also think New Mexico and Colorado will go to Obama. McCain might even get Indiana and New Hampshire this time, but no matter. McCain will lose this election.
Everything is going Obama's way right now with the economy, financial situation, McCain's VP just not being the *right* choice, McCain making the mistake of "halting" his campaign for the financial debacle and not being able to pull anything together, and just the momentum of the country not wanting 4 more years of Bush.
Obama's got this...he truly does...he's just gotta keep on doing what he's been doing for 4 more weeks.
Lets hope it happens. In that case we wouldnt have to worry about a tie dragging the election til January
I dont know about you guys, but have you heard of the Bradley Effect??
Obama needs about 7 point lead in the polls to win.
If Obama is winning in the the polls, 3-5 points, he may not win that state.
Of COURSE we've heard of the Bradley Effect. Folks like you keep reminding us - and folks like me keep pointing out that the Bradley Effect has NOT been showing up in the actual voting for quite a while now. If anything, overall Obama OVERPERFORMED in the primaries (compared to what the polls were saying) so one could say there was a a REVERSE Bradley Effect.
The fact is, the White bigot vote has ALREADY been accounted for in the polls - considering that polls on the subject of race have shown that anywhere from 15-30% of Whites ADMIT they are less likely to vote for a Black man - and indeed this is probably why Obama is not even further ahead in the polls.
Ken
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