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Old 10-01-2008, 11:18 AM
S65 S65 started this thread
 
92 posts, read 85,186 times
Reputation: 27

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This guy is right in EVERY election. It looks like Obama is going to win Florida too!

Obama has this wrapped up!!!!!

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1
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Old 10-01-2008, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Austin
4,105 posts, read 8,288,273 times
Reputation: 2134
Don't get too cocky now! We need to make sure we stay on our game and get the vote out. If you are into volunteering, I know that moveon.org has calling parties where callers from non-swing states call moveon members in swing states to recruit them to volunteer at registration booths in colleges in democratic areas. Maybe that would be a good idea for you.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,937,590 times
Reputation: 7118
I seem to remember the same declaration a while back. If the election was this coming Tuesday, I'd be worried. A lot can happen in 4-5 weeks.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:14 PM
 
13,053 posts, read 12,948,893 times
Reputation: 2618
Quote:
Originally Posted by S65 View Post
This guy is right in EVERY election. It looks like Obama is going to win Florida too!

Obama has this wrapped up!!!!!

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1
I see his charts on the history of votes in past elections, but I do not see his past picks in previous elections compared to observational results. Maybe I am missing it, but could you point me to the charts that does this? Again, I would like to see the history of his projections in the past elections compared to the actual turn out of the election. This will allow us to see if his "method" is consistently able to properly project or if he is way off base.

Don't forget we got ourselves into a lot of trouble over the past elections by putting too much faith in the projection models and too little into the peoples actual votes.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:15 PM
 
13,053 posts, read 12,948,893 times
Reputation: 2618
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
I seem to remember the same declaration a while back. If the election was this coming Tuesday, I'd be worried. A lot can happen in 4-5 weeks.
Even then you can't be sure. the Gore/Bush projections were way off in silly ville all the way up to the election and including during the reporting of the districts. When it is over, then it is over. Until then, I ain't making any bets.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:15 PM
 
Location: um....guess
10,503 posts, read 15,563,744 times
Reputation: 1836
I'm not going to celebrate until the polls officially close & we have an actual winner. These polls constantly go up & down until right before the election, they're not an accurate decider.
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