Rasmussen: Horrible polling news for McCain (voters, campaign, Democrats, Republicans)

[TuborgP]

It is not the continuing seven point Obama lead but the following that is the most damaging for the candidate:
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

McCain would need to move those leaning to Obama towards him. Any intelligent person can look at the numbers and interpret the significance themselves. More data in the article.

[blacknight04]

National polls don't matter, only state polls do.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by blacknight04

National polls don't matter, only state polls do.

they aren't any better and they reflect the hardening attitudes of those polled in state polls. National polls are very important as they measure voter thinking and sentiments. State polls become important in conjunction as they reflect the distribution of those voters by state. Thus it may be that there are enough won't change their mind Obama supporters in Michigan that it became not worthy of Team McCain in time and money.

[Tesaje]

The decent polls take into account the state tally on the electoral map, and it isn't looking good for McCain.

But as we all know, the polls are less accurate these days than they used to be and it could completely turn around in the month left before the election.

Then there's those nagging doubts about the potential of stolen elections that have lingered for years.

[SuperIncumbent]

Rasmussen canvasses 2,000-5,000 people at a time...Definitely not accurate or indicative of anything.

[justNancy]

Whether this poll is accurate or not, all polls show Obama has a significant lead. The reason I don't like polls is that they will give McCain no other choice but to increase his smear tactics and continue to instill fear in those who have doubts.

[calmdude]

Originally Posted by SuperIncumbent

Rasmussen canvasses 2,000-5,000 people at a time...Definitely not accurate or indicative of anything.

May I suggest a $14 investment that can show you why the sample population is quite meaningful?
Science Books - Statistics for Dummies

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

It is not the continuing seven point Obama lead but the following that is the most damaging for the candidate:
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

McCain would need to move those leaning to Obama towards him. Any intelligent person can look at the numbers and interpret the significance themselves. More data in the article.

I have little doubt that Obama is the next President and the democrats will have both house and Senate. The media has done an excellent job of giving shelter to all the crooked democrats over the financial mess. I will support Obama now and make my family happy. I just wonder if all you liberals will be happy with the continued theft of American taxpayer money and ignore the people put in charge of watching the fund, like Barney Frank. Or will you find some steel in your backbone and hold your own party members accountable?
I think the republicans are getting what they deserve.

[WestCobb]

Look, if McCain really was interested in putting the country first, he'd suspend his campaign indefinetly and give back his matching federal funds. He's wasting tax payer dollars at this point. If he's so concerned about the three million spent on testing bear DNA (and what a golden oldie that one was .. shows McCain comes from a different era) he needs to quit spending my money on his futile presidential bid.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by SuperIncumbent

Rasmussen canvasses 2,000-5,000 people at a time...Definitely not accurate or indicative of anything.

A couple of points:

1) A single poll - no matter how carefully carried out - really doesn't mean a great deal. When LOTS of polls are all more or less showing the same thing, then that's significant - which is why I prefer sources such as Real Clear Politics (RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama) which look at a number of different major polls and tabulates the results of all of them to come up with a result. Those sorts of polls are showing Obama in the lead and pulling away. RCP has Obama at +6 this morning (which I believe (not entirely sure) is a high for him. Now admittedly it MIGHT drop below 6 this morning (or not) as other polls are factored in, but the fact is, it's been trending higher and higher overall. It drops a bit, then surges up higher than it was before - and this trend has been going on since McCain's high point right after the Republican Convention.

2) It seems to me (based on watching these poll of polls) that there is first a surge for one candidate or the other at the national level - which is then followed by a surge at the level of the individual states. This is just an observation of mine and thus non-scientific but it seems like it's been very consistent this election cycle. So, to the claim that "national polls mean nothing, it's the state polls that count" I reply "watch the national polls for the coming trends in the state by state polls."

Fortunately for Obama, he is trending upwards in both.

McCain still has time to turn it around, but I don't think he will. For one thing, as mentioned in another post, people seem to be solidifying now and there are probably fewer and fewer undecideds up for grabs. That's bad news for whoever is behind.

Ken