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Wednesday, October 08
Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6 from 8 yesterday
National Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1 from 7 two days ago
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4 from 7 yesterday
Strange. Nothing that I know happened over the weekend to justify the change.
Strange. Nothing that I know happened over the weekend to justify the change.
Probably fiddling with the party ID.
either the Palin attacks or as you say fiddlning with party ID. That is a real tough one for them and their reference base is 2004 and they aren't sure how accurate that will be. Seems like each campaign is truly focusing on state races and numbers. It also may be that as one candidate shifts from a state there is the potential for the other to see a surge in numbers if still working the state. Also to be considered are the third party candidates which seem to be collectively impacting McCain and Obama equally. This isn't over and you are right about asking how do you factor in the Bradley effect and which states is that even a factor in 2008.
Oh, look who's back loving polls....Sanrene. The same sanrene who said they didn't matter last week, but loved them 2 weeks ago...as long as they say what she wants.
This is Lord's post from yesterday regarding the Hotline poll.
Quote:
Once again, sanrene there are more dems than there are republicans.
Dems 40%
Reps 38%
Ind 18%
That is the sampling the diego poll used. I also find it hard to believe that the independents in the poll gave McCain an 8 point lead on the economy.
This is today's party ID from the Hotline poll;
Quote:
Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.
See what I mean? Why would they fiddle with the numbers overnight? They've increased the gap between dems and reps by 2% and Mac has gained by 1 overnight. If they had left the party ID the same as yesterday, what would the poll say today? Mac in the lead?
See how they can manipulate the numbers to get the result they want?
Strange. Nothing that I know happened over the weekend to justify the change.
Probably fiddling with the party ID.
I would expect the national polls to tighten somewhat as election day draws closer, history shows us they generally do.
Obama just needs to win all the Gore states, plus one more. For example he currently leads in NV, CO, MO, NH, OH, VA, & FL..all states that Bush won, Obama only needs one of them.
You know, I went through this poll state by state, and in all the blue states, Obama was winning by the "margin of error" or a little more. I noticed in a lot of the red states, McCain was up by as much as 30 points in some of these states.
Can anyone theorize what the disparity could be here, especially given some of these states border each other?
I also notice that while Minnesota is still blue, McCain is making a lot of ground there and closing in on the margin of error.
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