the Meta-Analysis at
Princeton Election Consortium
Calculations are based on recent available
state polls, which are used to estimate the probability of a n Obama/McCain win, state by state. These are then used to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes corresponding to all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations. For a popular article about this calculation, read
this article and the
follow-up.
- As of October 7, 5:00PM EDT:
- Obama: 353
- McCain: 185