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Interesting electoral map. These guys predicted every state except Hawaii in '04. This was primarily due to lack of poll data. The accuracy of their method increases with more polling data, such as in the battleground states. The methodology is very simple statistics. Something interesting to keep an eye on.
I still think the polls that are being taken right now are incorrect. Come election day I do believe the numbers will be different than they are now. I'm not saying that McCain is going to win, but I do see the election coming down to a few key states and we not having a winner until the early hours of the 5th.
Why do I say this.... well I hate to say it but probably due to race. I know a large number of people who would feel the need to lie to a pollster about voting for Obama just because they were afraid that they would look racist by saying they would vote for McCain. This is why I think some states are a lot more in the toss up category than currently listed.
I grew up in Indiana and I spent years and years around folks who were all kindness and politeness around our black/asian/hispanic neighbors, but once that door closed out game the true racist inside of them. I have a feeling it is still like this to some degree and once those voting booth curtains close, out will come that racist again.
For once I would love an election that was real. Maybe we could change it where everyone was on the ballot and have a primary election knocking it down to three or four and then give them like two months to campaign and have a final election, majority vote wins.
I'm sure it's just a pipe dream, but hey, I can wish eh?
Interesting electoral map. These guys predicted every state except Hawaii in '04. This was primarily due to lack of poll data. The accuracy of their method increases with more polling data, such as in the battleground states. The methodology is very simple statistics. Something interesting to keep an eye on.
Hmm...Princeton uses a methodology similar to 538 if I remember correctly and actually discovered a flaw in 538 in the past which I think was corrected....Your source draws from RCP but has the Electoral count higher at this point...interesting. 313-338.
I grew up in Indiana and I spent years and years around folks who were all kindness and politeness around our black/asian/hispanic neighbors, but once that door closed out game the true racist inside of them. I have a feeling it is still like this to some degree and once those voting booth curtains close, out will come that racist again.
Yes, I definitely agree with you. I know a lot of people like that.
Many of them have worked hard all their lives to raise their children not to be racist. They make a point of treating their neighbors and co-workers equally. But they may find there's still a trace of uncertainty deep down deep when it comes to voting for a black president. It's very hard to overcome some of the hardwiring you get when you're young, and there will be people who'll need to get used to having a black president before they can bring themselves to vote for one.
This is why we cannot allow ourselves to get complacent--everyone has to vote, especially the young people. The Bradley effect still exists, but if we get everyone to vote maybe this will be the election that extinguishes it.
But predict it when? About half the elections in American history have the loosing candidate leading late in October. Seriously, look at the history. Just some I can recall. Gore lead bush by 11 freakin points in October! Kerry lead by 5 points just a few days before the election, Then there is Trueman and even Carter lead Reagan by 4 points with less then 2 weeks.
In this election, we have so many bad polling data being taken based on who they "PROJECT" will actually vote. The glaring stats? +13% more Democrats being polled. 22% more people under aged 30 being polled then in any other election and then we have the Bradley affect, confirmed to be at least 3% in this election.
This game is far from over! Democrats who think they have this wrapped up are nuts, they need to read history. This will be a close election, like it or not.
But predict it when? About half the elections in American history have the loosing candidate leading late in October. Seriously, look at the history. Just some I can recall. Gore lead bush by 11 freakin points in October! Kerry lead by 5 points just a few days before the election, Then there is Trueman and even Cater lead Reagan by 4 points with less then 2 weeks.
In this election, we have so many bad polling datat being taken based on who the PROJECT will actually vote. The glaring stats? +13% more Democrats being polled. 22% more people under aged 30 being polled then in any other election and then we have the Bradley affect, confirmed to be at least 3% in this election.
This game is far from over! Democrats who think they have this wrapped up and nuts, they need to read history. This will be a close election, like it or not.
Actually, NOT.
I have read up on elections and there is absolutely NO candidate in history who has had as big as of a lead (national and electoral) on October 14th and lost the presidency.
Gore only lead by 11 in ONE poll very briefly and that was in very early October, and the electoral map was still tilted towards George W Bush. In contrast, Obama is dominating the electoral map and btw, Gore won the popular vote so the polls were right.
But predict it when? About half the elections in American history have the loosing candidate leading late in October. Seriously, look at the history. Just some I can recall. Gore lead bush by 11 freakin points in October! Kerry lead by 5 points just a few days before the election, Then there is Trueman and even Carter lead Reagan by 4 points with less then 2 weeks.
This game is far from over! Democrats who think they have this wrapped up are nuts, they need to read history. This will be a close election, like it or not.
Which day in History, in October, would you like us to Remember?
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Hmm...
