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Old 10-15-2008, 09:57 PM
 
1,369 posts, read 3,357,427 times
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I think that McCain will close to within the margin of error by election day, and the Bradley effect combined with a strong complacency of Obama supporters will negatively effect Democratic turnout. McCain supporters are scared to death of Obama getting into office, and I am not sure if Obama supporters are as passionate about getting him into office as many Republicans are with keeping Obama out of office...

Furthermore, I just don't believe polls that poll 25% more democrats than Republicans. There aren't 25% more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans. I also think that too many of these polls are conducted on or near liberal college campuses rather than in white middle class suburbs --

Obama's lead in the liberal polls has dropped from 11% to now apparently 6.2%. I think that in the coming weeks we will see a neck and neck race.
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Old 10-15-2008, 09:59 PM
 
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I agree completely. I think the Democrats may be crying in their beer on Nov. 5th. Their hatred has made Republicans even more determined to vote and has turned off some independents who may have voted for Obama. And then there are the PUMAs.
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:01 PM
 
1,788 posts, read 3,545,698 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by big mean bear View Post
I think that McCain will close to within the margin of error by election day, and the Bradley effect combined with a strong complacency of Obama supporters will negatively effect Democratic turnout. McCain supporters are scared to death of Obama getting into office, and I am not sure if Obama supporters are as passionate about getting him into office as many Republicans are with keeping Obama out of office...

Furthermore, I just don't believe polls that poll 25% more democrats than Republicans. There aren't 25% more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans. I also think that too many of these polls are conducted on or near liberal college campuses rather than in white middle class suburbs --

Obama's lead in the liberal polls has dropped from 11% to now apparently 6.2%. I think that in the coming weeks we will see a neck and neck race.
Same analogy I've been yelling about for a month now! This will be a close election and both campains know it!

Also, the poll sampling for under aged 30 potential voters is higher in this election then ever before! Yet historically, they simply don't turnout.
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:02 PM
 
1,647 posts, read 2,320,117 times
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Historically, the race does become closer near election day.
But I am going to comment on something else. I find it pathetic that McCain has to hope for racism to win. Or hope that ppl don't show up to win.
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:02 PM
 
323 posts, read 427,015 times
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Default Pumas for mccain

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaCowboy View Post
Same analogy I've been yelling about for a month now! This will be a close election and both campains know it!

Also, the poll sampling for under aged 30 potential voters is higher in this election then ever before! Yet historically, they simply don't turnout.
We will come out in full force.
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:03 PM
 
0 posts, read 1,353,222 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by big mean bear View Post
I think that McCain will close to within the margin of error by election day, and the Bradley effect combined with a strong complacency of Obama supporters will negatively effect Democratic turnout. McCain supporters are scared to death of Obama getting into office, and I am not sure if Obama supporters are as passionate about getting him into office as many Republicans are with keeping Obama out of office...

Furthermore, I just don't believe polls that poll 25% more democrats than Republicans. There aren't 25% more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans. I also think that too many of these polls are conducted on or near liberal college campuses rather than in white middle class suburbs --

Obama's lead in the liberal polls has dropped from 11% to now apparently 6.2%. I think that in the coming weeks we will see a neck and neck race.
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:03 PM
 
1,369 posts, read 3,357,427 times
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Obama's most fervant voting blocks are college students and blacks, traditionally the biggest no-shows on election day...
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:06 PM
 
0 posts, read 1,353,222 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by big mean bear View Post
Obama's most fervant voting blocks are college students and blacks, traditionally the biggest no-shows on election day...
No. According to polls;

Women are Obama's biggest voting block.
Elderly people have swung towards Obama
People under 50 have swung towards Obama.

Everyone has swung towards Obama!! McCain is toast!!

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Old 10-15-2008, 10:06 PM
 
Location: DFW Texas
3,096 posts, read 6,780,053 times
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I think this election will hold many surprises!!!!
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Old 10-15-2008, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
7,184 posts, read 16,280,788 times
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I expect the polls to start tightening; Obama's lead is historic, it's unrealistic to expect it to remain that high.

But the talk will turn in the coming weeks to the electoral map, where the Bradley effect is effectively negated -- a 4% shift in overall popular vote due to the Bradley effect (if that is even how high it is now, might be closer to 2%) will not change the electoral math. McCain needs not only to close the gap and come from 10% back in certain states, he's also got to build an extra 4% "beyond-the-margin of error" in 5 out of 6 battleground states. I'm not saying a swing like that isn't possible, but it's highly improbable. It would be a comeback beyond the likes of the "comeback kid", Bill Clinton himself. It would be a historical comeback.
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