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Old 10-27-2008, 08:14 PM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,489 posts, read 20,632,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walidm View Post
538 reports Tightening in AZ in two polls. Senator McCain may lose Arizona...+5 in one poll, +2 in another....
The poll at 2% is Zimmerman, a Democratic polling organization.
The next closest after that is 5%, 7% and 8%
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:35 AM
 
31,683 posts, read 41,024,360 times
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I don't think Obama will carry Arizona. I do think he would like to force McCain to defend it in the last few days. His being close is great PR for his campaign.
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:38 AM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,642 posts, read 15,593,556 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Peterson View Post
The poll at 2% is Zimmerman, a Democratic polling organization.
The next closest after that is 5%, 7% and 8%
Interesting. Why do you feel the race so close? A poll done earlier in the year predicted this was happening, and showed the Senator losing a lot of ground in traditional Republican areas to Democrats, in the more populous ares. If the poll you cited isn't weighted for the cell phone crowd - lookout!
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:45 AM
 
31,683 posts, read 41,024,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walidm View Post
Interesting. Why do you feel the race so close? A poll done earlier in the year predicted this was happening, and showed the Senator losing a lot of ground in traditional Republican areas to Democrats, in the more populous ares. If the poll you cited isn't weighted for the cell phone crowd - lookout!
Is Obama making much of a push there? Either in media or staff? What is the Hispanic population number?
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:28 AM
 
Location: Looking over your shoulder
31,304 posts, read 32,869,458 times
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Many republicans in Arizona are Goldwater republicans ~ and Goldwater didn’t like McCain very much! I continue to hear endorsements for Obama from some well known republican names. McCain hasn’t that good of a reputation in his own state and many people remember just who he is with the Keating Five from back in the mid 80’s.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:30 AM
 
1,748 posts, read 2,478,115 times
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That would be an embarrassment to lose one's own state......but I'd love to see it!
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Orlando
8,276 posts, read 12,854,528 times
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If I had it my way AZ would go for Nader and surprise the H out of everyone...
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:37 AM
 
26,206 posts, read 49,012,208 times
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I sure hope McCain loses AZ, would serve him right. I hope he loses all 50 states, but that won't happen, there are too many racists in red states who'll choose guaranteed economic servitude and poverty under McCain before voting in a black guy who WILL improve their lives in many ways; and that is a sad statement on where we are as a nation - divided and conquered.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,642 posts, read 15,593,556 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Is Obama making much of a push there? Either in media or staff? What is the Hispanic population number?
Here is a link to the Demographics, which appear to show Hispanics comprise 29.2% of the population total.
Keep in mind however there have been Demographic shifts due to housing and the Economy, a local Realtor would be able to give a much more detailed analysis of on the ground sentiment.
If you consider the enormous Tipping point pressure being exerted by the surrounding States - CA, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, and understand the Tipping point methodology, Arizona is under a lot of pressure and will be very interesting to watch.

RCP now has the State as a leaner
.
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,402 posts, read 28,934,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
I don't think Obama will carry Arizona. I do think he would like to force McCain to defend it in the last few days. His being close is great PR for his campaign.
Yup, you hit the nail on the head. The media will really talk this up, especially if there aren't any announcements or new policies to discuss. Wonderful PR.
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