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So OP, are you assuming that the final proportion of voters by party is going to be the same as in the early balloting? Do you have any reason to believe this?
So OP, are you assuming that the final proportion of voters by party is going to be the same as in the early balloting? Do you have any reason to believe this?
I guess we assume that for other early voting states, like NC, right?
California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course, how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed. The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I'm sure that Obama will eventually win in California, but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election! Everybody thought he would win California in a landslide, but so far anyway,it's very tight. That means that in the less liberal states he is in real trouble.
Now the rest of the story:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/counterevidence_watch_gop_earl.php (broken link)
Analysis: Context is important. Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early voting rate. Don'tknow if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state.
More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?
Verdict: Nothingburger.
Have some counterevidence to submit to the jury? E-mail me
Mmmm... Mccain has trailed the national polls for the last month, several red states are turning blue... and he is only leading in Arizona by 5 points... and California is going red... get real
Which is precisely why "you people" live where you do. Even in CA, McCain captures the votes of those in the rural, desolate, and backwards areas. These regions of CA are no different than rural West Virginia...and thank God are offset by the more enlightened, more educated, and progressive segment in and around the cities.
In a few days, it will be President Obama...and don't you forget it either.
California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course, how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed. The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I'm sure that Obama will eventually win in California, but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election! Everybody thought he would win California in a landslide, but so far anyway,it's very tight. That means that in the less liberal states he is in real trouble.
OP, I think you have a better claim if you think that in early voting in Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, or Mississippi, Obama is winning. Thanks for the laugh!
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