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Todays Rasmussen show the race at 4.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.
Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls
Another poll shows Pennsylvania as being very close.
Strategic Vision Political (http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_103108.htm - broken link)
Results of the second poll showing Pennsylvania as being very close
In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.
Todays Rasmussen show the race at 4.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.
Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see
So, If McCain got 100% of the undecideds, he'd still lose.
"The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model."
"The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model."
Thanks for getting this up. Yup good news for Obama and maybe the half hour presentation helped. Looking better for Obama today. Not that it was bad but McCain did have some momentum.
RCP Average 10/25 - 10/30 -- -- 49.9 43.5 Obama +6.4
Readers the attached link shows the accuracy of Gallup polls over the last many elections. It is a great discussion tool or myth debunker. Election Year Presidential Preferences
Also a good article on how and why Gallup got Dewey/Truman wrong and the lessons learned from. No. 1199: Gallup Poll
Then, in 1948, Gallup blew the Truman-Dewey prediction. How? His mistake was to quit polling two weeks before the election with fourteen percent of the electorate still undecided. After that humiliation, Gallup went back to analyze his error. He emerged with the maxim, "Undecided voters side with the incumbent."
Unlike the Literary Digest, Gallup bounced back, and his polls flourish today. Meanwhile, every trailing politician since 1948 has promised to do what Truman did, but few actually have. And yet Gallup's great gaffe was a fine legacy. It reminded us that the best oracle cannot be trusted absolutely. The stars do not control our lives, and it is never completely over -- until it's over.
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