The problem with Zogby.... (voters, Democrats, Republicans, polls)

[brattpowered]

There is one very, very significant concern with Zogby, which is that he has a longstanding rule to set his party weightings based on the exit polls from the most recent election. In this case, that means 2004, when a roughly equal number of Democrats and Republicans turned out. However, according to essentially every available poll, Democrats now have somewhere between a 5-point and a 10-point advantage in party ID.

Also note.... Registration Gains Favor Democrats - washingtonpost.com

This particular procedure has bitten Zogby in the [arse] before. Between 2000 and 2004, there was a shift in party ID toward the Republicans; as a result, Zogby's numbers were 2-3 points high for Kerry across battleground states.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Tracking Poll Primer

Just sayin'....

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by brattpowered

Also note.... Registration Gains Favor Democrats - washingtonpost.com



FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Tracking Poll Primer

Just sayin'....

Yup, how many times have I told folks do not react to Zogby even if you like his results.
That would be easier to decide if you could buy polls the way you buy canned food or cereal, with all the ingredients disclosed on a label. But pollsters don't package their products that way. Consequently, most of us believe, mistakenly, that a poll is a simple tabulation of a random sample of voters. In reality, polls are full of additives and preservatives, subtractions and selective multiplications, none of which are generally published. The reason many polls consistently differ from others is that their hidden ingredients differ. Here's a guide to those ingredients, poll by poll.

I just posted a couple of very good links on polling samples and differences between pollsters in the Oct 31 polling thread.

[eastcoastlady]

I wish people would just give up on polls all together. I mean, think of a pollster like you think of the weatherman. You watch the polls (weather) and you hear what is predicted, but even if the weatherman says it won't rain, you still take your umbrella.
They can't predict this stuff. We'll just have to wait and see.

[brattpowered]

Originally Posted by eastcoastlady

I wish people would just give up on polls all together. I mean, think of a pollster like you think of the weatherman. You watch the polls (weather) and you hear what is predicted, but even if the weatherman says it won't rain, you still take your umbrella.
They can't predict this stuff. We'll just have to wait and see.

Sage advice.