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Old 11-03-2008, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Limestone,TN/Bucerias, Mexico
1,452 posts, read 2,810,729 times
Reputation: 488

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc View Post
Oh yeah, as for North Carolina, I think McCain might win here, when everyone else thought it was Obama. The state will be close I think. The one thing that could turn it is turn-out. A big turn-out turns it blue!!!
I think the senatorial races could have a big impact on the presidential race, especially in North Carolina and Virginia.. R. Liddy Dole is not doing well in NC after her commercial mocking her opponent's supposedly Godless friends. Add to that huge turnouts in pre-election voting in a state with lots of transplants and a large black population.

Then in VA there's the popular former governor D. Mark Warner who's a shoe-in for R. John Warner's former senatorial seat. And VA's other senator, Jim Webb, Repub turned Dem has proved himself an excellent senator and is also quite popular. So I wonder if some still-confused, undecideds may just say, what the heck, the GOP has screwed things up royally - maybe I need to give *all* the Dem candidates a chance.

Thus I think it's very possible Virginia and North Carolina could easily turn blue *this* time around. Now that would add up to a mandate of sorts for Obama and his message!
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,491 posts, read 7,850,846 times
Reputation: 619
Quote:
Originally Posted by SarahSal View Post
I think the senatorial races could have a big impact on the presidential race, especially in North Carolina and Virginia.. R. Liddy Dole is not doing well in NC after her commercial mocking her opponent's supposedly Godless friends. Add to that huge turnouts in pre-election voting in a state with lots of transplants and a large black population.

Then in VA there's the popular former governor D. Mark Warner who's a shoe-in for R. John Warner's former senatorial seat. And VA's other senator, Jim Webb, Repub turned Dem has proved himself an excellent senator and is also quite popular. So I wonder if some still-confused, undecideds may just say, what the heck, the GOP has screwed things up royally - maybe I need to give *all* the Dem candidates a chance.

Thus I think it's very possible Virginia and North Carolina could easily turn blue *this* time around. Now that would add up to a mandate of sorts for Obama and his message!
The governor's race in NC will be interesting to see too. Currently NC has a democratic governor (Mike Easily) thats not running for another term. Democrat Beverly Perdue is running against Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory. The governor's race is a dead heat but many are predicting Pat McCrory will win. That would be ironic if Obama won the state of North Carolina but then NC elects a republican governor. But NC has had a democratic governor for years and never votes for a democrat in the presidential election. North Carolina hasnt had a republican governor since the 1980s.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:52 PM
 
Location: 3219'03.7"N 10643'55.9"W
8,114 posts, read 17,281,853 times
Reputation: 7276
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi View Post
The governor's race in NC will be interesting to see too. Currently NC has a democratic governor (Mike Easily) thats not running for another term. Democrat Beverly Perdue is running against Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory. The governor's race is a dead heat but many are predicting Pat McCrory will win. That would be ironic if Obama won the state of North Carolina but then NC elects a republican governor. But NC has had a democratic governor for years and never votes for a democrat in the presidential election. North Carolina hasnt had a republican governor since the 1980s.
I think part of the reason for NC's shift politically, in this election, anyway, stems from people from the northeast relocating to NC, but taking with them their liberal political identity. If you read the NC forums, its amazing to me how many have relocated from states such as PA, NJ, NY, etc.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:58 PM
 
573 posts, read 595,947 times
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As "Deep Throat" (Watergate era) said: "follow the money."



Quote:
Originally Posted by PollingReport.com

Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
How to Forecast an Election
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:07 PM
 
259 posts, read 123,739 times
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Mccain 282

Obama 256



that is my prediction
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:09 PM
 
259 posts, read 123,739 times
Reputation: 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteyNice View Post
This. The only states that are "within a point or two" are states McCain *must* win. Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio. PA is not "within a point or two". And guess what, even if ALL of those states break for McCain, he still loses!

he will win all those plus New Hampshire
and a couple others that people are claiming are either leaning or solidly Obama
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:10 PM
Status: "Nobody's right if everybody's wrong" (set 2 days ago)
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
9,771 posts, read 21,080,213 times
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If McCain wins Ohio, Virginia, & Florida but LOSES Colorado and Neveda Obama still wins
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:24 PM
 
Location: The Silver State (from the UK)
4,663 posts, read 7,315,568 times
Reputation: 2862
The most irresponsible thing that the MSM could do tomorrow is to call the election for Obama if Virginia goes blue. There will be millions of people going out to vote after that happens.

My prediction: Obama 318.
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Old 11-07-2008, 01:13 AM
 
573 posts, read 595,947 times
Reputation: 199
Yep, I got it right: 364 vs 174.

However, it will probably be 365 electoral votes once Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (Omaha) results are announced.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tennis702 View Post
As "Deep Throat" (Watergate era) said: "follow the money."


Last edited by Tennis702; 11-07-2008 at 01:23 AM..
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Old 11-07-2008, 07:53 AM
 
573 posts, read 595,947 times
Reputation: 199
Looking back through the various predictions in this thread, I noticed that I was the only one who (following the Intrade.com "market based" lead) predicted over 350 electoral votes for Obama.

So, Obama fans, why so pessimistic? Next time, "follow the money".

Quote:
Originally Posted by PollingReport.com

Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
How to Forecast an Election
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