U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 11-03-2008, 10:10 AM
 
0 posts, read 1,344,052 times
Reputation: 10

Advertisements

Everyone said they would tighten at the very end, but I haven't seen Obama's leads as large as they are now in the final polls. 13, 10, 11, 9 points, etc.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-03-2008, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers, FL
1,286 posts, read 2,640,126 times
Reputation: 249
because the polls changed there models and are including big black voter turn out and young voters, but yet the polls have found that they only expect about a 3-6% increase in black voter turnout and 0% increase in young voters. they never re-adjusted the models to reflect it.

that is why the numbers are so skewed

i think that obama has a a +2 pt lead using the historical models and adjusting for the anticipated turnout. undecideds and non-affiliates will be the swing votes.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2008, 10:13 AM
 
4,814 posts, read 3,259,314 times
Reputation: 1112
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokerdave View Post
because the polls changed there models and are including big black voter turn out and young voters, but yet the polls have found that they only expect about a 3-6% increase in black voter turnout and 0% increase in young voters. they never re-adjusted the models to reflect it.

that is why the numbers are so skewed
And because 75% of voters vote on Election Day.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2008, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,400 posts, read 25,776,806 times
Reputation: 18989
Quote:
Originally Posted by Americanboy View Post
Everyone said they would tighten at the very end, but I haven't seen Obama's leads as large as they are now in the final polls. 13, 10, 11, 9 points, etc.
October Surprise?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2008, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers, FL
1,286 posts, read 2,640,126 times
Reputation: 249
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pressing-On View Post
And because 75% of voters vote on Election Day.
funny over 30% have already voted and they are expecting 36% with absentee. i can see facts are your cornerstone.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:51 PM.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top