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Old 11-03-2008, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Texas
471 posts, read 707,203 times
Reputation: 318

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That isn't a lead. Especially for a democrat. You people should have learned your poll lesson years ago.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:48 PM
 
1,688 posts, read 2,134,794 times
Reputation: 822
Quote:
Originally Posted by snuffster View Post
Wonder why Hussein Obama is not leading in Florida lol
He is...
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:49 PM
 
1,688 posts, read 2,134,794 times
Reputation: 822
Quote:
Originally Posted by snuffster View Post
That isn't a lead. Especially for a democrat. You people should have learned your poll lesson years ago.
What is wrong with you guys? Obama is leading. Take off the shades, please.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Texas
471 posts, read 707,203 times
Reputation: 318
Quote:
Originally Posted by honeyinhouston View Post
Obama is leading.
No he isn't.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:52 PM
 
29,819 posts, read 34,912,438 times
Reputation: 11735
Quote:
Originally Posted by snuffster View Post
That isn't a lead. Especially for a democrat. You people should have learned your poll lesson years ago.
And that lesson is please don't offer the debunked Kerry was leading myth and remember Gallup stopped polling the Truman/Dewey race a week prior to the election. Thus I would think most objective people reviewing this thread would give greater credence to polling data then to a blanket statement from some anonymous poster. Wouldn't you concur that logic would suggest that?
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:55 PM
 
29,819 posts, read 34,912,438 times
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The First Measured Century: Timeline: Events - 1948 Election
Truman beat Dewey and the race wasn't even that close (Truman won by 3.5 percentage points). What had gone wrong? The pollsters had stopped polling a week before the election. They thought that people's votes would not change before the election. But in 1948 there were two strong independent candidates whose support eroded away in the last week. By stopping their polling too soon, the pollsters missed this shift away from the third party candidates back to the major parties. Since most of the votes shifted to Truman, he won the election.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:56 PM
 
29,819 posts, read 34,912,438 times
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Final Gallup results compared to the actual results, still wondering what we Dem's are suppose to know.

Election Year Presidential Preferences
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7 -2
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +1
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9 0
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4 -2
Ralph Nader 4 2.7 +1
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 +3
Robert Dole 41 40.7 0
H. Ross Perot 7 8.4 -1
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 +6
George Bush 37 37.4 0
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 -5
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 +3
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6 -2
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8 0
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6 0
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7 -4
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 +3
John Anderson 8 6.6 +1
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1 -2
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 +1
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 +1
George McGovern 38 37.5 0
1968 Richard Nixon
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Old 11-03-2008, 03:12 PM
 
20,923 posts, read 39,233,384 times
Reputation: 19219
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
The First Measured Century: Timeline: Events - 1948 Election
Truman beat Dewey and the race wasn't even that close (Truman won by 3.5 percentage points). What had gone wrong? The pollsters had stopped polling a week before the election. They thought that people's votes would not change before the election. But in 1948 there were two strong independent candidates whose support eroded away in the last week. By stopping their polling too soon, the pollsters missed this shift away from the third party candidates back to the major parties. Since most of the votes shifted to Truman, he won the election.
Yes, all that and the fact that Gallup did that 1948 poll by telephone, when a lot of people did NOT have a phone at the time. Pundits surmise this was a factor; the slightly better off GOP types had phones, the worker bee DEMs did not.

This year, there is talk of 'cell phone gap' in that tons of young people, who are mostly Obama fans, only have cell phones, but the pollsters only call people with traditional land-line phones (the not so young folks). Thus the pollsters are NOT calling quite so many young people, giving rise to a theory that Obama actually has a bigger lead than the polls are showing. We'll know in 36 hours.
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Old 11-03-2008, 03:16 PM
 
1,688 posts, read 2,134,794 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snuffster View Post
No he isn't.
I'm not sure what world you're living in, but please come to our world....
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Old 11-03-2008, 03:19 PM
 
2,857 posts, read 5,994,616 times
Reputation: 1716
Quote:
Originally Posted by honeyinhouston View Post
I'm not sure what world you're living in, but please come to our world....
I think what he's trying to say is that the fix is in. Remember Florida 2000? He's saying Obama's lead in the polls is not big enough to overcome the vote count shenanigans planned by the Florida GOP.
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