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Old 05-09-2009, 07:15 PM
 
Location: The Planet Mars
2,150 posts, read 2,310,040 times
Reputation: 523

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie117 View Post
I made it from data located here:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - bea.gov Home Page

The U.S. Department of Labor Home Page (http://www.dol.gov/ - broken link)

A lot of useful info on those sites, you can run a search query on just about any aspect of the economy you want. I tried to find a correlation between political party and the economy, but there really was none. The recovery process and wars seem to be the only politically influenced factors.



I will double check to make sure, but so far I do not see any typos in the excel document..

EDIT: You were right, there was a typo, I had -.62% instead of 6.2%. Oops. Now I am afraid I may have missed something else (although the rest of it looks fine).

Here is the corrected graph:



..Yikes!

Although, it probably won't be as dire looking when averaged with the rest of the year..
Thanks for the links - they do seem to have loads of good information...

Thanks for the chart also..
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Old 05-09-2009, 07:54 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,522,987 times
Reputation: 9363
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbob View Post
I've never claimed that the recovery is solely Obama's doing - it is partially his doing to be fair, due to his Stimulus Plan and resulting boost in spending and consumer confidence...
I'll give you the consumer confidence, but his stimulus plan hasnt even been fully funded, and its now just being put into place.

Lets not even discuss that unemployment levels have risen again, wholesale inventory rates fell more than expected, consumer credit has fallen faster than the last 18 years... etc..

The stock market isnt even close to the tip of the iceburg and is in no way an indicator of the economy..
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Old 05-09-2009, 07:56 PM
 
2,260 posts, read 3,372,005 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbob View Post
I've never claimed that the recovery is solely Obama's doing - it is partially his doing to be fair, due to his Stimulus Plan and resulting boost in spending and consumer confidence...

His actions bailing out the banks is encouraging banks to lend more too... The FED's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) is also helping spur lending and economic activity..

This recession will end as most do - consumer and business balance sheets improve as saving increases, and pent-up-demand begins to exert itself, which causes spending to increase, confidence to go up, spending to increase more...
I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. Nobody said we're in a recovery. We did lose over half a million jobs in April.

I don't think the stimulus plan has had much to do with it. How much of it have they spent?

I'll admit the banks was a good move. I will give them full credit for that and I'm sure that definitely helped.
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Old 05-09-2009, 08:07 PM
 
Location: The Planet Mars
2,150 posts, read 2,310,040 times
Reputation: 523
Quote:
Originally Posted by paullySC View Post
I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. Nobody said we're in a recovery. We did lose over half a million jobs in April.

I don't think the stimulus plan has had much to do with it. How much of it have they spent?

I'll admit the banks was a good move. I will give them full credit for that and I'm sure that definitely helped.
You're right - nobody said we're in a recovery... Read my post carefully- neither did I.
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Old 05-09-2009, 08:22 PM
 
2,153 posts, read 5,003,859 times
Reputation: 649
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbob View Post
Oh my - time flies - forgot to mention...

The market was up about 9% in April also... (S&P)...

Sorry Obama Haters - more good news to make you feel bad...
Im not reading through all the pages so can someone explain.

The market is apparently up now, but since President Obama has been in office hasn't it dropped huge amounts? The up it is currently on doesn't even come close to what it has dropped since President Obama has been in office. Why does President Obama get the credit now and not for the huge drop? Why do his supporters jump on the current upswing but not bring up the huge amount of money lost in the previous months. Also, if President Obama is getting the credit for the upswing, what policy changes (or whatever changes) has led to this that are a result of President Obama?

I have seen articles about this being a upswing that you do not want to jump in on because it isn't going to last. Why is this?

If nothing I say makes sense then please let me know. Im a novice at this so just realize Im trying to figure out what is going on.
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Old 05-09-2009, 08:27 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,522,987 times
Reputation: 9363
Quote:
Originally Posted by bls5555 View Post
Im not reading through all the pages so can someone explain.

The market is apparently up now, but since President Obama has been in office hasn't it dropped huge amounts?
I think we're rather even now from when Obama was elected, but not even close since the Democrats have taken over Congress.

Lets look at the stock market under the Republican Congress

now Democrats in Congress

Recap, Republican congress and the market increases 372%, Democratic Congress and the market drops 42%..

big difference..
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:28 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,795,399 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
I'll give you the consumer confidence, but his stimulus plan hasnt even been fully funded, and its now just being put into place.
All the more reason I'm optimistic
The Recession is bottoming out - and the stimulus money is about to kick in.
This will provide the kick start the economy needs to begin growing again (as was it's purpose).

Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Lets not even discuss that unemployment levels have risen again, wholesale inventory rates fell more than expected, consumer credit has fallen faster than the last 18 years... etc..
Of COURSE the unemployment levels have risen again. We ARE still in a recession - and unemployment is a LAGGING indicator - just about the LAST thing to increase at the onset of a recession and the LAST thing to decrease at the end of a recession. But look at the job losses. Look at the bell curve that's developed. Job losses peaked in Jan, went down in Feb, rose slightly in Mar and then dropped a lot in April (see attachment).

True enough, the backlog of employed will increase for a while - for the simple reason that as long as the number of new job losses remains high, this total number of employed will not begin to subside. However even that will begin to erode once the number of new jobs lost drops below a certain point.

Also - you mention that inventory rates fell more than expected as if that's somehow a BAD thing.
Falling inventory rates is a GREAT thing, it means soon there will be new orders to factories to replenish stock.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
The stock market isnt even close to the tip of the iceburg and is in no way an indicator of the economy..
Sure it is.
It's not the sole indicator of the economy - nor even the main one, but's certainly an indicator - it's a LEADING indicator. More to the point though, the stock market is more than just an indicator, it's a driver. A big part of the reason the economy fell apart so quickly late last year was because the sudden collapse of the market panicked the average American. He/she saw their investments (in some cases their life savings) falling apart before their eyes and they put the breaks on their spending as a result. In addition, CEO's saw their company stock plummitting and did what CEO's typically do under those conditions - they moved quickly to cut costs. This almost always means laying people off - which brought about the rapid increase in the unemployment numbers mentioned above.

How can you possibly make the statement with a straight face that the stock market is NOT and indicator of the economy? That's just laughable.

GET REAL!


Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 01-31-2010 at 01:42 PM..
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:28 PM
 
2,659 posts, read 2,578,385 times
Reputation: 366
Quote:
Originally Posted by bls5555 View Post
Im not reading through all the pages so can someone explain.

The market is apparently up now, but since President Obama has been in office hasn't it dropped huge amounts? The up it is currently on doesn't even come close to what it has dropped since President Obama has been in office. Why does President Obama get the credit now and not for the huge drop? Why do his supporters jump on the current upswing but not bring up the huge amount of money lost in the previous months. Also, if President Obama is getting the credit for the upswing, what policy changes (or whatever changes) has led to this that are a result of President Obama?

I have seen articles about this being a upswing that you do not want to jump in on because it isn't going to last. Why is this?

If nothing I say makes sense then please let me know. Im a novice at this so just realize Im trying to figure out what is going on.
Dow on Jan 20, 2009
7,949.09

Today:
8,574.65

Nasdaq from roughly 1450 to 1739 in that time.
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:32 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,795,399 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
I think we're rather even now from when Obama was elected, but not even close since the Democrats have taken over Congress.

Lets look at the stock market under the Republican Congress

now Democrats in Congress

Recap, Republican congress and the market increases 372%, Democratic Congress and the market drops 42%..

big difference..
The problems that led to the economic meltdown were in place for a long time and warnings had been noted well before the Democrats took over Congress.

Ken
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:35 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,795,399 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by bls5555 View Post
Im not reading through all the pages so can someone explain.

The market is apparently up now, but since President Obama has been in office hasn't it dropped huge amounts? The up it is currently on doesn't even come close to what it has dropped since President Obama has been in office. Why does President Obama get the credit now and not for the huge drop? Why do his supporters jump on the current upswing but not bring up the huge amount of money lost in the previous months. Also, if President Obama is getting the credit for the upswing, what policy changes (or whatever changes) has led to this that are a result of President Obama?

I have seen articles about this being a upswing that you do not want to jump in on because it isn't going to last. Why is this?

If nothing I say makes sense then please let me know. Im a novice at this so just realize Im trying to figure out what is going on.
As Compjocky noted, you are dead wrong.
The DOW, S&P - and especially the NASDAQ are ALL ABOVE where they were when Obama came into office.

Ken
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