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Old 06-03-2009, 10:24 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,798,190 times
Reputation: 7186

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
A 1% increase is hardly surprising, or any reason to celebrate, especially considering that we're at a negative 3.6% for the quarter. This is similar to celebrating a rise in the DJIA for 1 day.

Your second link confirms what I said previously, that things were not as bad for "the economy" as previously thought, most of it was fear, and also confirms that we are following a normal business cycle. Heck, the link is about the "Business Cycle Indicator"

U.S. Leading Indicators Improve Sharply To The Highest Level Since November

But from you link, in November, it was this high, remind me again how awful the economy was in November, and then tell me why its different this time..

Dont misunderstand me, the economy will recover, primarily because consumer confidence is improving, and its consumer confidence, (i.e. fear or lack of fear) which causes an economic fall or recovery. Its not due to Washington.
First of all you should own up and admit you were DEAD WRONG when you just said "NOT ONE economic indicator is improving". The fact is, it isn't just ONE indicator that's improving, it's MOST of the indicators.

In regards to your statement that "that things were not as bad for "the economy" as previously thought, most of it was fear" - I've said that ALL ALONG. Bush panicked the market when he appeared on TV looking like a "deer in the headlights". That panic of the market then deepened the recession when corporate leaders responded as they typically do to crumbling stock price - by trying to cut costs, with generally means (among other things) laying people off (which of course reduced buying by the general public, which then led to a further deepening of the recession). As I've said over and over and over (to no apparent affect on you). Again, the market and the economy affect EACH OTHER.

Ken
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:29 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,530,793 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
First of all you should own up and admit you were DEAD WRONG when you just said "NOT ONE economic indicator is improving". The fact is, it isn't just ONE indicator that's improving, it's MOST of the indicators.
My statement stands, you can pick it to the "exact" fact that you found one indicator that shows a 1% increase, but its so low that its not even worth noting, unless your trying to pretend it holds meaning other than to prove "another poster wrong"..
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
In regards to your statement that "that things were not as bad for "the economy" as previously thought, most of it was fear" - I've said that ALL ALONG. Bush panicked the market when he appeared on TV looking like a "deer in the headlights". That panic of the market then deepened the recession when corporate leaders responded as they typically do to crumbling stock price - by trying to cut costs, with generally means (among other things) laying people off (which of course reduced buying by the general public, which then led to a further deepening of the recession). As I've said over and over and over (to no apparent affect on you). Again, the market and the economy affect EACH OTHER.
I've always stated that the market was feared into a "depression" that it wasnt real. Sure a few companies had massive problems but the economy in general was fine. Since you've now admitted that you also agree the market was "panicked", why would a natural recovery be surprising? Why do you think a natural recovery on the market, means an improved economy? The market is just adjusting itself to where it should have been, and yes, it will recover and probably rise higher than previous records, but that wont be due to more layoffs. It will become possible when people are being hired and they have disposable income to put back into the market.

You do realise that companies like GM and Chrysler just went bankrupt and this means hundreds of thousands of more individuals unemployed dont you? Sorry, but those two companies alone will drag out a recovery due to the massive numbers of unemployment coming.. Of course economic indicators will show that when they file unemployment that its not as bad as people expected, but maybe thats because people are expecting to much. After all, I can expect 750,000 unemployed and then be jumping for joy at only seeing 600,000, but that still doesnt mean things are improving enough to make it noteworthy.
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:30 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,798,190 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post

Dont misunderstand me, the economy will recover, primarily because consumer confidence is improving, and its consumer confidence, (i.e. fear or lack of fear) which causes an economic fall or recovery. Its not due to Washington but an average business cycle that fell further than it should have primarily due to fear.
It not only WILL recover, it's ALREADY starting to recover (as the leading indicator show). The very thing that you deny over and over again.

The fact is, you've been DEAD WRONG in that.
Are things still bad?
Heck yes!
Could they still get worse?
Of course they could.
Is that what most economists expect?
No.
The general expectation is that recovery is coming, and there are LOTS of signs of that - which is EXACTLY what I've been saying for 3 months now - and you've been denying it every step of the way.

Now most of the leading indicators are saying the same thing I've been saying.

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 06-03-2009 at 10:40 PM..
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:32 PM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,556 posts, read 19,318,981 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Probably most - but that's fine, I don't care. Every foreclosed home off the market is one more house off the market. Foreclosed homes are bound to be the first to sell - I wouldn't expect it to be otherwise. The glut of foreclosed homes is simply the ugly residue of the Bush years. It ain't going away overnight, but it IS going away.

Ken
Every foreclosed home also sells for WAY less than other homes....driving down home prices thereby making the situation worse.

Foreclosed homes that sell are also used as comps when doing an appraisal.
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:36 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,798,190 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
My statement stands, you can pick it to the "exact" fact that you found one indicator that shows a 1% increase, but its so low that its not even worth noting, unless your trying to pretend it holds meaning other than to prove "another poster wrong".
It's not "one indicator" that increased - it's MOST of the set of leading economic indicators. Got that? There are a series of them - and for the first time in a year and a half more of them are trending positive than are negative - so as I said, it's not ONE indicator. You claimed there was "not one" when the fact is, there are MANY. The improvements ARE small, but they ARE improvements, and there are SEVERAL of them and the number of indicators showing improvement is INCREASING rapidly. Just a few months back there were NONE - now MOST of them are positive. Thats pretty big news - news that's almost certain to be affecting the markets.

Ken
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:40 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,872 posts, read 22,798,190 times
Reputation: 7186
Quote:
Originally Posted by oz in SC View Post
Every foreclosed home also sells for WAY less than other homes....driving down home prices thereby making the situation worse.

Foreclosed homes that sell are also used as comps when doing an appraisal.
Sure, no one says prices have stablized yet - but EVERY house sold (even foreclosed homes) is one less house on the market. The ONLY way the housing market WILL recover is to get those homes sold. At some point when the supply gets small enough prices will stabilize and then begin to recover. It won't happen overnight, but it WILL happen.


Ken
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:44 PM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,556 posts, read 19,318,981 times
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LOL....yes things will eventually get better...could take ten years or more but why worry.
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:45 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,530,793 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Sure, no one says prices have stablized yet - but EVERY house sold (even foreclosed homes) is one less house on the market. The ONLY way the housing market WILL recover is to get those homes sold. At some point when the supply gets small enough prices will stabilize and then begin to recover. It won't happen overnight, but it WILL happen.


Ken
Home sales, while up in volume, are down by $ amount. (Treasury Secretary Geithner can't sell Larchmont home - Jun. 3, 2009 for example)

Meanwhile, home prices have plummeted 32.2% nationwide since the height of the housing bubble in July 2006

Home sales prices plummeting 32.2% is NOT good. This means that every home being sold, the sellers of those properties, which normally would go out and spend, will not be able to. Lets not even discuss that many of these homes have a 32.2% drop in addition to a $8,000 welfare check from the government which also needs to be paid back.

Needing to print money in order to sell debt as a nation is DEFINATELLY not good, and all of the market increases that we are seeing is being offset by the government buying up our own debt because it needs to be paid back.

Is a recovery coming, of course a recovery is coming, ITS A BUSINESS CYCLE. THEY ALWAYS COME, but you can not ignore the future ramifications of actions being taken now and pretend that the DJIA (or the stock market in general) is an indicator at all of the economy..
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:54 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,530,793 times
Reputation: 9363
Quote:
Originally Posted by oz in SC View Post
LOL....yes things will eventually get better...could take ten years or more but why worry.
And when they get better, how long until they fall back out due to such actions like inflation.

I can only see it now, the economy will recover, Obama will leave office, the next administration will have to deal with a new faltering economy and the blame even though they have nothing to do with it. Printing money to buy up debt, artificially inflating housing prices by handing people checks to buy homes, keeping interest rates so low as to encourage individuals living off of debt (previous administrations are to blame on this one for sure), increasing "entitlements" without a means to pay for them, all have ramifications.

Yes, we can come out without any long term consequences but not with current policies in place. In 10 years the debt on our interest will be more $1T a year.. How do we expect to pay for it? Even with an improved economy the only way to do so is by cutting benefits massivly AND increasing taxes on everyone.. Are the poor ready to make such sacrificies? (I ask that because they are the only ones not paying taxes).

Biggest fear, yeah we receive a recovery now, and the next drop makes this drop appear to be a picnic..
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:57 PM
 
Location: San Diego
5,319 posts, read 7,864,691 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
You do realise that companies like GM and Chrysler just went bankrupt and this means hundreds of thousands of more individuals unemployed dont you? Sorry, but those two companies alone will drag out a recovery due to the massive numbers of unemployment coming.. Of course economic indicators will show that when they file unemployment that its not as bad as people expected, but maybe thats because people are expecting to much. After all, I can expect 750,000 unemployed and then be jumping for joy at only seeing 600,000, but that still doesnt mean things are improving enough to make it noteworthy.
GM is not going out of business. They just filed for bankruptcy.

They will just go through a court-ordered restructuring process, to make them a sound company once again.

GM will likely cut back employees as part of the bankruptcy restructuring, but still keep as many as required to keep operations going as normal.

So layoffs will most likely be in the tens of thousands, but not hundreds of thousands.
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