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That's fine, but will you concede that you were guilty of some serious hyperbole when you wrote that this, regarding how we feel about 2010?:
going to lose a ton of seats, perhaps lose the majority.
Not really. After seeing some of the posts about the GOP possibilities in 2010 as well as the poll results in the thread I linked to I was looking to see if those who made some of those posts, and voted a certain way in that poll were able to back up their suggestions and claims and give concrete examples of which Democrats they felt were in danger and which Republicans they felt would be able to knock them off.
Perhaps I could have worded it a bit differently and simply asked a question regarding what does everyone think will be the competitive seats in 2010 and the candidates from each side for those seats. However, I started this thread right after I viewed the results of that poll which is why I worded it the way I did.
Here is a seat that could be up for grabs,it is a rematch of Virgil Goode and Tom Perriello in Virginia's 5 th district.The last election was decided by a few hundred votes, and if Perriello signs on to health care and and the cap and trade he might be in trouble.
It is not a sure bet that Goode is running,but I like him because he was one of Paul's lunch buddies and was conservative.Most {R}s deserved the boot but I thought he did not and lik to see him reclaim his seat.
Virgil Goode raised $154 for likely 2010 bid | Lynchburg News Advance (http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/virgil_goode_raised_154_for_likely_2010_bid/17742/ - broken link)
Here is a seat that could be up for grabs,it is a rematch of Virgil Goode and Tom Perriello in Virginia's 5 th district.The last election was decided by a few hundred votes, and if Perriello signs on to health care and and the cap and trade he might be in trouble.
It is not a sure bet that Goode is running,but I like him because he was one of Paul's lunch buddies and was conservative.Most {R}s deserved the boot but I thought he did not and lik to see him reclaim his seat.
Virgil Goode raised $154 for likely 2010 bid | Lynchburg News Advance (http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/virgil_goode_raised_154_for_likely_2010_bid/17742/ - broken link)
I think he would had a tough time if he did run again, but Goode has since stated he will not run.
Quote:
Area Republican leaders said Monday they are saddened by Virgil Goode Jr.’s decision not to seek the party’s nomination for his former seat in Congress in 2010, but they respect his decision and think the party will find another strong candidate.
“You will see a number of people announce during the next few weeks” their plans to seek the Republican nomination for the 5th District seat, said Tucker Watkins, the party’s district chairman. “All of them were waiting for Virgil” to decide if he would run for the seat again.
The Democrats always cried about taking back the Whitehouse.
Wow, they did it. Six months in....America realizes ( again) that putting Dems in office is the stupidest thing ever. Every time.
You can wear sandals and wish that every day provides you a rainbow, and you can welcome your new illegal Mexican family members. You can wish to some hubcap or something that the Democrats in Congress will keep spending enormous amounts of taxpayer money. But, that is not the CHANGE that you have all put your lips around.
For goodness sake, for all Democrats to yearn for free monetary support, is just, well, I suppose radical.
Everyone who voted for Obama expects wealth redistribution, and free money.
Folks who voted for Obama are dumb.
Congress will change in 2010. The reason ... Americans that are willing to get off of their a^sses to improve their lives will succeed. The folks who want ACORN to bail them out will fall to the side.
And what will these people do? They will vote for Democrats again.
Hmmm,
Public National Healthcare. What the f*ck do they care? As long as people that work pay for it.
Thank you for not contributing to society. And for voting for a free ride.
The Democrats always cried about taking back the Whitehouse.
Wow, they did it. Six months in....America realizes ( again) that putting Dems in office is the stupidest thing ever. Every time.
You can wear sandals and wish that every day provides you a rainbow, and you can welcome your new illegal Mexican family members. You can wish to some hubcap or something that the Democrats in Congress will keep spending enormous amounts of taxpayer money. But, that is not the CHANGE that you have all put your lips around.
For goodness sake, for all Democrats to yearn for free monetary support, is just, well, I suppose radical.
Everyone who voted for Obama expects wealth redistribution, and free money.
Folks who voted for Obama are dumb.
Congress will change in 2010. The reason ... Americans that are willing to get off of their a^sses to improve their lives will succeed. The folks who want ACORN to bail them out will fall to the side.
And what will these people do? They will vote for Democrats again.
Hmmm,
Public National Healthcare. What the f*ck do they care? As long as people that work pay for it.
Thank you for not contributing to society. And for voting for a free ride.
Yes, because having an approvals of 54.8-36.2 (net approval 16.6) is so horrid right?? Please....
Congress will change in 2010?? If you think that back it up. What current Democratic officeholders will lose in 2010? Who will be the Republicans that will be able to knock them off? Or is this simply another Republicans will win post without the ability to back up what you say.....
Here is another one for you Smash,the Steve Chabot rematch against Steve Driehaus.In the article I posted Chabot claims that the Obama factor played a huge role because the black voters were energized.This being a off year election and Obama not on the ballot he could pick up the 4% that he lost by.
His argument is logical and I think his chances are good.
Here is another one for you Smash,the Steve Chabot rematch against Steve Driehaus.In the article I posted Chabot claims that the Obama factor played a huge role because the black voters were energized.This being a off year election and Obama not on the ballot he could pick up the 4% that he lost by.
His argument is logical and I think his chances are good.
You make a good observation and I think this will be a raise to watch, however I think it will be hard for Chabot to defeat Driehaus. Turnout in the midterm will obviously drop compared to the Presidential election, and African American voters might see a larger drop off than white voters. With that being said this is still a district Obama won solidly. He won it by 11 points, so even with the drop off its still a district with a Democratic lean to it.
The other key factor is $$$. Yes, Chabot only lost by 4 last year, but perhaps a big reason why it wasn't larger than that is the fact he outspent Driehaus by $1,00,000 (2.4 mil compared to 1.4 mil) That four point margin is suddenly a bit larger when you no longer have an almost 2-1 spending advantage you previously had and instead you are basically even in spending (which is basically the best Chabot can hope for). Now I'm not suggesting Chabot can't win it and as I said it is one to watch. However, the lack of $$ advantage this time compared to 08 will likely cancel out any benefit the turnout differences will give him, which makes this a bit harder pickup than you might think.
I can honestly say I do not think the republicans will take back the house and I am a republican from the word go, but I do think they will make some serious gains. It is too soon to say who will go down, here in AR Blanche Lincoln is going to have her hands full it appears. It is way too soon to say she will be defeated. If the NV election were held today, the democrats coudl kiss Reed good-bye. That is another one, but there is still 14 months to go.
Let's see who others think could pull it off.
Nita
I agree.
Actually, I hope that more than 1 Libertarian or Constitution party candidate gets elected. it would set both the dems and repubs back onto their feet.
I don't know, but I know many of the Democrat's own strategists, depending on who they are have been predicting that if current trends continue that they could lose 20-50 seats in the house...big gap, but none of them as of right now are predicting the dems keeping seats.
It seems the dems most in trouble in the house are the "blue-dog" dems, those conservative democrats in conservative districts. (I have one as my own congress-critter.) They are in a tough spot over the health-care issue.
In the senate, the only one I keep hearing about possibly being in trouble is Reid--I'm sure there are others the dems are concerned about.
Funny, I don't see the Blue Dogs being in all that much trouble. Of course I am seeing it maining from states like AR and a few other mid western and southen states. They are inclined to be conservative but like to vote democrats in cause mommy and daddy always did. As long as the blue dogs don't buckle under they are probably safe.
Nita
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