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Unread 10-20-2009, 01:32 PM
 
737 posts, read 616,695 times
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Default Is Pennsylvania really a swing state? New swing states?

Barack Obama won Pennsylvania with a 11% margin. The same margin Senator McCain won Texas by. In '04 the margin was 2.5% and in '00 it was 4.2%

Is Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic state like Illinois where the get out the vote efforts in the major metros (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) and surrounding areas overwhelm the Republican vote?

Obviously it is really early to start handicapping the next Presidential election but it is fun
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Unread 10-20-2009, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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PA, isn't as strong as Illinois for the Dems or Texas for the GOP. You really can't compare the margins from PA to Texas in 08 due to the amount Obama won nationally.

With that being said I do agree PA is no longer a swing state, its more of a Democratic leaning state, and it will be quite hard for the GOP to pick it up.

Portions of the state have trended Republicans (basically western PA outside of Pittsburgh and its immediate suburbs), however the Republican stronghold of suburban Philly is gone. It will be very hard for the GOP to take back the state due to how Democratic suburban Philly has become. The GOP just doesn't have the votes in the rest of the state (even with the trend in some areas) to make up for the drubbings they get in the SE.

Someone like Corbett could have a chance in his bid for Gov. next year as he is a bit more moderate and while will still lose suburban Philly could at least hold down the numbers there. Someone such as Toomey or any GOP candidate for President won't be able to do that.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 05:27 AM
 
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It's more of a middle ground. Outside major urban areas liberal candidates don't do well at all, even in surrounding suburbs. Democrats, yes, liberals no. And the voters know the issues and judge the candidates on their merits, not so much by party affiliation( again, outside of major urban areas). You have some really rural areas that are probably just as partisan but even then far right wing candidates aren't common. The Philly suburbs aren't becoming liberal hotbeds nor are they staying conservative. Peoples views moderate when confronted with new ideas.
Think of the state as more of a blue collar democrat/ moderate republican state with most being in the middle with only a few extremists thrown in to muck things up on either side. Casey would be an example, Specter another. But one and possibly both won't be in office much longer. I think thats the very definition of a swing state.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 05:29 AM
 
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Corbett is from Montgomery County so expect him to carry suburban Philly. That's a big incentive to vote for somebody, not being from either Pittburgh or Philadelphia.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 09:35 AM
 
Location: On a hill near a river
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The Democrat city machines in Philly and Pittsburgh have been in power since the end of the Second World War. They can manipulate and create votes any way they want. No way any Republican wins statewide office for the foreseeable future.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 11:32 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
The Democrat city machines in Philly and Pittsburgh have been in power since the end of the Second World War. They can manipulate and create votes any way they want. No way any Republican wins statewide office for the foreseeable future.
Saying they "manipulate and create" votes isn't true unless there is some evidence. There have been several Republican state wide winners of Pennsylvania after World War Two. Bush Sr, Reagan Twice, Nixon Once, Eisenhower Twice and Dewey. Since WW II there have been 13 different Governors in Pennsylvania and 7 have been Republicans. So the idea that Pennsylvania is a Democratic bastion which crushes Republicans is a bit disingenuous.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 01:29 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icy Tea View Post
Corbett is from Montgomery County so expect him to carry suburban Philly. That's a big incentive to vote for somebody, not being from either Pittburgh or Philadelphia.
No he isn't. Corbett is from suburban Pittsburgh. In fact both candidates could be from Alleghaney County (if Dan Onorato wins the Dem nomination). Both sides do have candidates running from suburban Philly, Republicans have Congressman Jim Gerlach who is from Chester County, and the Dems have former Congressman Joe Hoeffel who is from Montgomerry and currently the county's Commissioner. Hoeffel has a better chance of winning the Primary than Gerlach does, though Onorato is probably the favorite to win the Dem nomination at this point.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 03:21 PM
 
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You are right, Smash. I was thinking of Bruce Castor who ran against Corbett in 2004. My bad. I couldn't vote for either in the primary and Castor lost a bitter but still pretty close race.
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Unread 10-21-2009, 03:28 PM
 
Location: On a hill near a river
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CityPerson09 View Post
Saying they "manipulate and create" votes isn't true unless there is some evidence. There have been several Republican state wide winners of Pennsylvania after World War Two. Bush Sr, Reagan Twice, Nixon Once, Eisenhower Twice and Dewey. Since WW II there have been 13 different Governors in Pennsylvania and 7 have been Republicans. So the idea that Pennsylvania is a Democratic bastion which crushes Republicans is a bit disingenuous.
I never said that no Repulbicans have been elected since World War II. I said -- and I stand by the statement -- that the two cities which constitute the lion's share of votes in Pennsylvanina have been run by long-time Democrat machines.

Name a viable Republican candidate for any current statewide office in Pennsylvania. They haven't got a chance when the Dems control Philly and Pittsburgh. Those late city votes just seem to come in a flood every election night...
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Unread 10-21-2009, 06:15 PM
 
737 posts, read 616,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
I never said that no Repulbicans have been elected since World War II. I said -- and I stand by the statement -- that the two cities which constitute the lion's share of votes in Pennsylvanina have been run by long-time Democrat machines.

Name a viable Republican candidate for any current statewide office in Pennsylvania. They haven't got a chance when the Dems control Philly and Pittsburgh. Those late city votes just seem to come in a flood every election night...
I completely agree that no Republican is going to win a state wide election in Pennsylvania. But it won't be because of "manipulated and created votes" it will be because of get out the vote efforts with strong political engagement and a higher turn out relative to the more rural part of the state. That has also been a staple of the Democratic machine in most states. Get as many people registered to vote as possible and get out the vote on election day (or absentee ballots for those unable to get to the polls) get turn out in areas favorable to you as high as possible. That's not "manipulating" the vote, its called "Election Day"
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