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Update time as Democratic Congressman David Obey WI-7 has announced he will not seek reelection. The district covers northwest and north central Wisconsin. It is generally a Democratic leaning district. Gore and Kerry both won the district pretty narrowly, Obama did win by double digits.
The Dems hold a 77 seat majority in the House at 254-177, with four vacant seats The Democrats had a 257-178 advantage when the current Congress session started.
Out of the four vacant seats, three were formerly held by Democrats, one by a Republican. Three of the four have Special Election scheduled, one does not and remains to be seen if it will be filled prior to November.
Vacant Seats
1. GA-8. Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21st in order to run for Governor. Special Election will be held on May 11th, if needed runoff will occur on June 8th.
2. PA-12. Democratic Congressman John Murtha passed away on Feb 8th, a Special Election will occur on May 18th.
3. HI-1. Neal Abercrombie resigned on Feb 26th in order to run for Governor. A Special Election will occur on May 22nd.
4. NY-29. Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned on March 8th as a result of sexual harassment claims. No Special Election is st at this time.
Currently 36 members of the House will not be running for re-election, 19 of them are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. However, 36 seats will actually be open (17 Democratic, 20 Republican) as FL-25 Congressman Republican Mario Diaz-Balart will actually be running in FL-21 instead (which is being vacated by his brother) Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart.
Republicans not seeking re-election
1. John Boozman AR-3 McCain 64-34 running for Senate
2. John Shadegg AZ-3 McCain 57-42 retiring
3. George Radanovich CA-19 McCain 52-46 retiring
4. Mike Castle DE-AL Obama 62-37 running for Senate
5. Ginny Brown-Waite FL-5 McCain 56-43 retiring
6. Adam Putnam FL-12 McCain 50-49 running for FL Comm of Agriculture
7. John Linder GA-7 McCain 60-39 retiring
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart FL-21 McCain 51-49 retiring
9. Mario Diaz-Balart FL-25 McCain 50-49 running in FL-21 instead
10. Mark Kirk IL-10 Obama 61-38 running for Senate candidates Bob Dold-R vs Daniel Seals-D
11. Steve Buyer IN-4 McCain 56-43 retiring, candidates Todd Rokita-R vs Daniel Sanders-D
12. Jerry Moran KS-1 McCain 69-30 running for Senate
13. Todd Tiahrt KS-4 McCain 58-40 running for Senate
14. Pete Hoekstra MI-2 McCain 51-48 running for Governor
15. Vern Ehlers MI-3 McCain 49-49 retiring
16. Roy Blunt MO-7 McCain 63-35 running for Senate
17. Mary Fallin OK-5 McCain 59-41 running for Governor
18. Henry Brown SC-1 McCain 57-42 retiring
19. Gresham Barrett SC-3 McCain 64-35 running for Governor
20. Zack Wamp TN-3 McCain 62-37 running for Governor
Democrats not seeking re-election
1. Artur Davis AL-7 Obama 72-27 running for Governor
2. Marion Berry AR-1 McCain 59-38 retiring
3. Vic Snyder AR-2 McCain 54-44 retiring
4. Diane Watson CA-33 Obama 87-12 retiring
5. Kendrick Meek FL-17 Obama 87-12 running for Senate
6. Brad Ellsworth IN -08 McCain 51-47 running for Senate, candidates Trent Vanhaaften-D vs Larry Bucshon
7. Dennis Moore KS-3 Obama 51-48 retiring
8. Charlie Melancon LA-3 McCain 61-37 running for Senate
9. William Delahunt MA-10 Obama 55-44 retiring
10. Bart Stupak MI-1 Obama 50-48 retiring
11. Paul Hodes NH-2 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
12. Joe Sestak PA-7 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
13. Patrick Kennedy RI-1 Obama 65-33 retiring
14. Bart Gordon TN-6 McCain 62-37 retiring
15. John Tanner TN-8 McCain 56-43 retiring
16. Brian Baird WA-3 Obama 52-46 retiring
17. David Obey WI-7 Obama 56-43 retiring
The Dems have a 57-41 edge in the Senate, which becomes 59-41 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 36 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 18 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. Currently out of the 36 Senate seats up for re-election, 11 seats will be open, five currently held by Democrats, six by Republicans. I will be posting the match ups as they are known.
The breakdown of the 36 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows,
Retiring Democratic Senators
1. Chris Dodd- Connecticut Obama 61-38 retiring
2. Ted Kaufman- Delaware Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment)
3. Roland Burris- Illinois Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment) candidates Alexi Giannoulias-D vs Mark Kirk-R
4. Evan Bayh- Indiana Obama 50-49 retiring
5. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota McCain 53-45 retiring
Retiring Republican Senators
1. George Lemieux- Florida Obama 51-48 retiring (was temp appointment)
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas McCain 57-42 running for Governor
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky McCain 57-41 retiring
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire Obama 54-45 retiring
5. Kit Bond- Missouri McCain 49-49 retiring
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio Obama 51-47 retiring
13 Democrats are running for re-election, 12 Republicans are running for re-election.
Democrats running for re-election
1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas McCain 59-39
2. Barbara Boxer- California Obama 61-37
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado Obama 54-45
4. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii Obama 72-27
5. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland Obama 62-36
6. Harry Reid- Nevada Obama 55-43
7. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York Obama 63-36
8. Chuck Schumer- New York Obama 63-36
9. Ron Wyden- Oregon Obama 57-40
10. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania Obama 54-44
11. Patrick Leahy- Vermont Obama 67-30
12. Patty Murray- Washington Obama 57-40
13. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin Obama 56-42
Republicans running for re-election
1. Richard Shelby- Alabama McCain 60-39
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska McCain 59-38
3. John McCain- Arizona McCain 53-45
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia McCain 52-47
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho McCain 61-36
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa Obama 54-44
7. David Vitter- Louisiana McCain 59-40
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina Obama 50-49
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma McCain 66-34
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina McCain 54-45
11. John Thune- South Dakota McCain 53-45
12. Bob Bennett- Utah McCain 62-34
Anyway predict away
p.s note to moderators, since this thread is also an overview of the elections, can you please change the title to 2010 Predictions/ Overview, as I can't change the title name.
When it comes time for people to mark their choices on the ballots in Nov, what would make the GOP think, at least for Senate seats, that the GOP's purging of Moderates will result in statewide selection of the right wing candidates? The wings of both Partys will opt for their wing of choice, but the deciders of the elections, will be Moderates of both Partys and Independents. Jobs will be a big issue, why would people think the RW candidate would better address that issue? The tact of the GOP, I think, is a huge, huge mistake. Unfortunately, we need Moderate Conservatives in the Senate, but we will likely have fewer of those choices. And, that is to all of our detriment.
Castle would be a moderate if he wins in Delaware, Hoeven would be a moderate if he wins in ND. I wouldn't agree with the GOP purging moderates at all.
Update time. Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett failed to get enough votes in the GOP Convention to get a spot on the Primary ballot. As a result it will wind up being an open race in Nov. Utah is staunchly GOP so keeping the seat should not be a problem.
The Dems hold a 77 seat majority in the House at 254-177, with four vacant seats The Democrats had a 257-178 advantage when the current Congress session started.
Out of the four vacant seats, three were formerly held by Democrats, one by a Republican. Three of the four have Special Election scheduled, one does not and remains to be seen if it will be filled prior to November.
Vacant Seats
1. GA-8. Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21st in order to run for Governor. Special Election will be held on May 11th, if needed runoff will occur on June 8th.
2. PA-12. Democratic Congressman John Murtha passed away on Feb 8th, a Special Election will occur on May 18th.
3. HI-1. Neal Abercrombie resigned on Feb 26th in order to run for Governor. A Special Election will occur on May 22nd.
4. NY-29. Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned on March 8th as a result of sexual harassment claims. No Special Election is st at this time.
Currently 36 members of the House will not be running for re-election, 19 of them are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. However, 36 seats will actually be open (17 Democratic, 20 Republican) as FL-25 Congressman Republican Mario Diaz-Balart will actually be running in FL-21 instead (which is being vacated by his brother) Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart.
Republicans not seeking re-election
1. John Boozman AR-3 McCain 64-34 running for Senate
2. John Shadegg AZ-3 McCain 57-42 retiring
3. George Radanovich CA-19 McCain 52-46 retiring
4. Mike Castle DE-AL Obama 62-37 running for Senate
5. Ginny Brown-Waite FL-5 McCain 56-43 retiring
6. Adam Putnam FL-12 McCain 50-49 running for FL Comm of Agriculture
7. John Linder GA-7 McCain 60-39 retiring
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart FL-21 McCain 51-49 retiring
9. Mario Diaz-Balart FL-25 McCain 50-49 running in FL-21 instead
10. Mark Kirk IL-10 Obama 61-38 running for Senate candidates Bob Dold-R vs Daniel Seals-D
11. Steve Buyer IN-4 McCain 56-43 retiring, candidates Todd Rokita-R vs Daniel Sanders-D
12. Jerry Moran KS-1 McCain 69-30 running for Senate
13. Todd Tiahrt KS-4 McCain 58-40 running for Senate
14. Pete Hoekstra MI-2 McCain 51-48 running for Governor
15. Vern Ehlers MI-3 McCain 49-49 retiring
16. Roy Blunt MO-7 McCain 63-35 running for Senate
17. Mary Fallin OK-5 McCain 59-41 running for Governor
18. Henry Brown SC-1 McCain 57-42 retiring
19. Gresham Barrett SC-3 McCain 64-35 running for Governor
20. Zack Wamp TN-3 McCain 62-37 running for Governor
Democrats not seeking re-election
1. Artur Davis AL-7 Obama 72-27 running for Governor
2. Marion Berry AR-1 McCain 59-38 retiring
3. Vic Snyder AR-2 McCain 54-44 retiring
4. Diane Watson CA-33 Obama 87-12 retiring
5. Kendrick Meek FL-17 Obama 87-12 running for Senate
6. Brad Ellsworth IN -08 McCain 51-47 running for Senate, candidates Trent Vanhaaften-D vs Larry Bucshon
7. Dennis Moore KS-3 Obama 51-48 retiring
8. Charlie Melancon LA-3 McCain 61-37 running for Senate
9. William Delahunt MA-10 Obama 55-44 retiring
10. Bart Stupak MI-1 Obama 50-48 retiring
11. Paul Hodes NH-2 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
12. Joe Sestak PA-7 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
13. Patrick Kennedy RI-1 Obama 65-33 retiring
14. Bart Gordon TN-6 McCain 62-37 retiring
15. John Tanner TN-8 McCain 56-43 retiring
16. Brian Baird WA-3 Obama 52-46 retiring
17. David Obey WI-7 Obama 56-43 retiring
The Dems have a 57-41 edge in the Senate, which becomes 59-41 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 36 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 18 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. Currently out of the 36 Senate seats up for re-election, 12 seats will be open, five currently held by Democrats, seven by Republicans. I will be posting the match ups as they are known.
The breakdown of the 36 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows,
Retiring Democratic Senators
1. Chris Dodd- Connecticut Obama 61-38 retiring
2. Ted Kaufman- Delaware Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment)
3. Roland Burris- Illinois Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment) candidates Alexi Giannoulias-D vs Mark Kirk-R
4. Evan Bayh- Indiana Obama 50-49 retiring
5. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota McCain 53-45 retiring
Retiring Republican Senators
1. George Lemieux- Florida Obama 51-48 retiring (was temp appointment)
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas McCain 57-42 running for Governor
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky McCain 57-41 retiring
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire Obama 54-45 retiring
5. Kit Bond- Missouri McCain 49-49 retiring
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio Obama 51-47 retiring
13 Democrats are running for re-election, 11 Republicans are running for re-election.
Democrats running for re-election
1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas McCain 59-39
2. Barbara Boxer- California Obama 61-37
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado Obama 54-45
4. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii Obama 72-27
5. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland Obama 62-36
6. Harry Reid- Nevada Obama 55-43
7. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York Obama 63-36
8. Chuck Schumer- New York Obama 63-36
9. Ron Wyden- Oregon Obama 57-40
10. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania Obama 54-44
11. Patrick Leahy- Vermont Obama 67-30
12. Patty Murray- Washington Obama 57-40
13. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin Obama 56-42
Republicans running for re-election
1. Richard Shelby- Alabama McCain 60-39
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska McCain 59-38
3. John McCain- Arizona McCain 53-45
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia McCain 52-47
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho McCain 61-36
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa Obama 54-44
7. David Vitter- Louisiana McCain 59-40
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina Obama 50-49
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma McCain 66-34
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina McCain 54-45
11. John Thune- South Dakota McCain 53-45
No, Democrats who decided to run for re-election have failed to make it out of the convention or Primary. One Republican has failed to do so.
Republicans Defeated in primary/ Convention
1. Bob Bennett- Utah McCain 62-34
Anyway predict away
p.s note to moderators, since this thread is also an overview of the elections, can you please change the title to 2010 Predictions/ Overview, as I can't change the title name.
The North Carolina Senate seat is going to be more contested then the "Washington conventional wisdom" predicts if Elaine Marshall wins.
The "Washington conventional wisdom" I have seen about North Carolina usually tends to be wrong. They were wrong about Dole, wrong about Cunningham, and I think they will be proven wrong about Burr as well.
The North Carolina Senate seat is going to be more contested then the "Washington conventional wisdom" predicts if Elaine Marshall wins.
The "Washington conventional wisdom" I have seen about North Carolina usually tends to be wrong. They were wrong about Dole, wrong about Cunningham, and I think they will be proven wrong about Burr as well.
I generally agree, I think Burr is going to face a tough challenge. Its still lean GOP at this time, but that is a race to watch.
Update time. Democratic Congressman WV-1 Alan Mollohan has lost in a Primary to Democrat Mike Oliverio. Oliverio actually ran to the right of Mollohan on several issues, and also attacked him for his ethical issues. Hard to say what this means for the general. The district is Republican on the Presidential level and has trended that way for sometime, but is very Democratic locally.
The Dems hold a 77 seat majority in the House at 254-177, with four vacant seats The Democrats had a 257-178 advantage when the current Congress session started.
Out of the four vacant seats, three were formerly held by Democrats, one by a Republican. Three of the four have Special Election scheduled, one does not and remains to be seen if it will be filled prior to November.
Vacant Seats
1. GA-8. Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21st in order to run for Governor. Special Election will be held on May 11th, if needed runoff will occur on June 8th.
2. PA-12. Democratic Congressman John Murtha passed away on Feb 8th, a Special Election will occur on May 18th.
3. HI-1. Neal Abercrombie resigned on Feb 26th in order to run for Governor. A Special Election will occur on May 22nd.
4. NY-29. Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned on March 8th as a result of sexual harassment claims. No Special Election is st at this time.
Currently 36 members of the House will not be running for re-election, 19 of them are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. However, 38 seats will actually be open (18 Democratic, 20 Republican) as FL-25 Congressman Republican Mario Diaz-Balart will actually be running in FL-21 instead (which is being vacated by his brother) Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart. One Democrat lost in a Primary.
Republicans not seeking re-election
1. John Boozman AR-3 McCain 64-34 running for Senate
2. John Shadegg AZ-3 McCain 57-42 retiring
3. George Radanovich CA-19 McCain 52-46 retiring
4. Mike Castle DE-AL Obama 62-37 running for Senate
5. Ginny Brown-Waite FL-5 McCain 56-43 retiring
6. Adam Putnam FL-12 McCain 50-49 running for FL Comm of Agriculture
7. John Linder GA-7 McCain 60-39 retiring
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart FL-21 McCain 51-49 retiring
9. Mario Diaz-Balart FL-25 McCain 50-49 running in FL-21 instead
10. Mark Kirk IL-10 Obama 61-38 running for Senate candidates Bob Dold-R vs Daniel Seals-D
11. Steve Buyer IN-4 McCain 56-43 retiring, candidates Todd Rokita-R vs Daniel Sanders-D
12. Jerry Moran KS-1 McCain 69-30 running for Senate
13. Todd Tiahrt KS-4 McCain 58-40 running for Senate
14. Pete Hoekstra MI-2 McCain 51-48 running for Governor
15. Vern Ehlers MI-3 McCain 49-49 retiring
16. Roy Blunt MO-7 McCain 63-35 running for Senate
17. Mary Fallin OK-5 McCain 59-41 running for Governor
18. Henry Brown SC-1 McCain 57-42 retiring
19. Gresham Barrett SC-3 McCain 64-35 running for Governor
20. Zack Wamp TN-3 McCain 62-37 running for Governor
Democrats not seeking re-election
1. Artur Davis AL-7 Obama 72-27 running for Governor
2. Marion Berry AR-1 McCain 59-38 retiring
3. Vic Snyder AR-2 McCain 54-44 retiring
4. Diane Watson CA-33 Obama 87-12 retiring
5. Kendrick Meek FL-17 Obama 87-12 running for Senate
6. Brad Ellsworth IN -08 McCain 51-47 running for Senate, candidates Trent Vanhaaften-D vs Larry Bucshon
7. Dennis Moore KS-3 Obama 51-48 retiring
8. Charlie Melancon LA-3 McCain 61-37 running for Senate
9. William Delahunt MA-10 Obama 55-44 retiring
10. Bart Stupak MI-1 Obama 50-48 retiring
11. Paul Hodes NH-2 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
12. Joe Sestak PA-7 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
13. Patrick Kennedy RI-1 Obama 65-33 retiring
14. Bart Gordon TN-6 McCain 62-37 retiring
15. John Tanner TN-8 McCain 56-43 retiring
16. Brian Baird WA-3 Obama 52-46 retiring
17. David Obey WI-7 Obama 56-43 retiring
No House Republicans have lost in a Primary/ Convention, one Democrat has
Democrats losing in Primary/ Convention
1. Alan Mollohan WV-1 McCain 57-42 candidates Mike Oliverio-D vs David McKinley-R
The Dems have a 57-41 edge in the Senate, which becomes 59-41 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 36 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 18 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. Currently out of the 36 Senate seats up for re-election, 12 seats will be open, five currently held by Democrats, seven by Republicans. I will be posting the match ups as they are known.
The breakdown of the 36 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows,
Retiring Democratic Senators
1. Chris Dodd- Connecticut Obama 61-38 retiring
2. Ted Kaufman- Delaware Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment)
3. Roland Burris- Illinois Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment) candidates Alexi Giannoulias-D vs Mark Kirk-R
4. Evan Bayh- Indiana Obama 50-49 retiring
5. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota McCain 53-45 retiring
Retiring Republican Senators
1. George Lemieux- Florida Obama 51-48 retiring (was temp appointment)
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas McCain 57-42 running for Governor
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky McCain 57-41 retiring
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire Obama 54-45 retiring
5. Kit Bond- Missouri McCain 49-49 retiring
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio Obama 51-47 retiring
13 Democrats are running for re-election, 11 Republicans are running for re-election.
Democrats running for re-election
1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas McCain 59-39
2. Barbara Boxer- California Obama 61-37
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado Obama 54-45
4. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii Obama 72-27
5. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland Obama 62-36
6. Harry Reid- Nevada Obama 55-43
7. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York Obama 63-36
8. Chuck Schumer- New York Obama 63-36
9. Ron Wyden- Oregon Obama 57-40
10. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania Obama 54-44
11. Patrick Leahy- Vermont Obama 67-30
12. Patty Murray- Washington Obama 57-40
13. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin Obama 56-42
Republicans running for re-election
1. Richard Shelby- Alabama McCain 60-39
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska McCain 59-38
3. John McCain- Arizona McCain 53-45
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia McCain 52-47
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho McCain 61-36
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa Obama 54-44
7. David Vitter- Louisiana McCain 59-40
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina Obama 50-49
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma McCain 66-34
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina McCain 54-45
11. John Thune- South Dakota McCain 53-45
No, Democrats who decided to run for re-election have failed to make it out of the convention or Primary. One Republican has failed to do so.
Republicans Defeated in primary/ Convention
1. Bob Bennett- Utah McCain 62-34
Anyway predict away
p.s note to moderators, since this thread is also an overview of the elections, can you please change the title to 2010 Predictions/ Overview, as I can't change the title name.
Update time. Democratic Congressman WV-1 Alan Mollohan has lost in a Primary to Democrat Mike Oliverio. Oliverio actually ran to the right of Mollohan on several issues, and also attacked him for his ethical issues. Hard to say what this means for the general. The district is Republican on the Presidential level and has trended that way for sometime, but is very Democratic locally.
The Dems hold a 77 seat majority in the House at 254-177, with four vacant seats The Democrats had a 257-178 advantage when the current Congress session started.
Out of the four vacant seats, three were formerly held by Democrats, one by a Republican. Three of the four have Special Election scheduled, one does not and remains to be seen if it will be filled prior to November.
Vacant Seats
1. GA-8. Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21st in order to run for Governor. Special Election will be held on May 11th, if needed runoff will occur on June 8th.
2. PA-12. Democratic Congressman John Murtha passed away on Feb 8th, a Special Election will occur on May 18th.
3. HI-1. Neal Abercrombie resigned on Feb 26th in order to run for Governor. A Special Election will occur on May 22nd.
4. NY-29. Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned on March 8th as a result of sexual harassment claims. No Special Election is st at this time.
Currently 36 members of the House will not be running for re-election, 19 of them are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. However, 38 seats will actually be open (18 Democratic, 20 Republican) as FL-25 Congressman Republican Mario Diaz-Balart will actually be running in FL-21 instead (which is being vacated by his brother) Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart. One Democrat lost in a Primary.
Republicans not seeking re-election
1. John Boozman AR-3 McCain 64-34 running for Senate
2. John Shadegg AZ-3 McCain 57-42 retiring
3. George Radanovich CA-19 McCain 52-46 retiring
4. Mike Castle DE-AL Obama 62-37 running for Senate
5. Ginny Brown-Waite FL-5 McCain 56-43 retiring
6. Adam Putnam FL-12 McCain 50-49 running for FL Comm of Agriculture
7. John Linder GA-7 McCain 60-39 retiring
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart FL-21 McCain 51-49 retiring
9. Mario Diaz-Balart FL-25 McCain 50-49 running in FL-21 instead
10. Mark Kirk IL-10 Obama 61-38 running for Senate candidates Bob Dold-R vs Daniel Seals-D
11. Steve Buyer IN-4 McCain 56-43 retiring, candidates Todd Rokita-R vs Daniel Sanders-D
12. Jerry Moran KS-1 McCain 69-30 running for Senate
13. Todd Tiahrt KS-4 McCain 58-40 running for Senate
14. Pete Hoekstra MI-2 McCain 51-48 running for Governor
15. Vern Ehlers MI-3 McCain 49-49 retiring
16. Roy Blunt MO-7 McCain 63-35 running for Senate
17. Mary Fallin OK-5 McCain 59-41 running for Governor
18. Henry Brown SC-1 McCain 57-42 retiring
19. Gresham Barrett SC-3 McCain 64-35 running for Governor
20. Zack Wamp TN-3 McCain 62-37 running for Governor
Democrats not seeking re-election
1. Artur Davis AL-7 Obama 72-27 running for Governor
2. Marion Berry AR-1 McCain 59-38 retiring
3. Vic Snyder AR-2 McCain 54-44 retiring
4. Diane Watson CA-33 Obama 87-12 retiring
5. Kendrick Meek FL-17 Obama 87-12 running for Senate
6. Brad Ellsworth IN -08 McCain 51-47 running for Senate, candidates Trent Vanhaaften-D vs Larry Bucshon
7. Dennis Moore KS-3 Obama 51-48 retiring
8. Charlie Melancon LA-3 McCain 61-37 running for Senate
9. William Delahunt MA-10 Obama 55-44 retiring
10. Bart Stupak MI-1 Obama 50-48 retiring
11. Paul Hodes NH-2 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
12. Joe Sestak PA-7 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
13. Patrick Kennedy RI-1 Obama 65-33 retiring
14. Bart Gordon TN-6 McCain 62-37 retiring
15. John Tanner TN-8 McCain 56-43 retiring
16. Brian Baird WA-3 Obama 52-46 retiring
17. David Obey WI-7 Obama 56-43 retiring
No House Republicans have lost in a Primary/ Convention, one Democrat has
Democrats losing in Primary/ Convention
1. Alan Mollohan WV-1 McCain 57-42 candidates Mike Oliverio-D vs David McKinley-R
The Dems have a 57-41 edge in the Senate, which becomes 59-41 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 36 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 18 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. Currently out of the 36 Senate seats up for re-election, 12 seats will be open, five currently held by Democrats, seven by Republicans. I will be posting the match ups as they are known.
The breakdown of the 36 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows,
Retiring Democratic Senators
1. Chris Dodd- Connecticut Obama 61-38 retiring
2. Ted Kaufman- Delaware Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment)
3. Roland Burris- Illinois Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment) candidates Alexi Giannoulias-D vs Mark Kirk-R
4. Evan Bayh- Indiana Obama 50-49 retiring
5. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota McCain 53-45 retiring
Retiring Republican Senators
1. George Lemieux- Florida Obama 51-48 retiring (was temp appointment)
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas McCain 57-42 running for Governor
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky McCain 57-41 retiring
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire Obama 54-45 retiring
5. Kit Bond- Missouri McCain 49-49 retiring
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio Obama 51-47 retiring
13 Democrats are running for re-election, 11 Republicans are running for re-election.
Democrats running for re-election
1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas McCain 59-39
2. Barbara Boxer- California Obama 61-37
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado Obama 54-45
4. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii Obama 72-27
5. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland Obama 62-36
6. Harry Reid- Nevada Obama 55-43
7. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York Obama 63-36
8. Chuck Schumer- New York Obama 63-36
9. Ron Wyden- Oregon Obama 57-40
10. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania Obama 54-44
11. Patrick Leahy- Vermont Obama 67-30
12. Patty Murray- Washington Obama 57-40
13. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin Obama 56-42
Republicans running for re-election
1. Richard Shelby- Alabama McCain 60-39
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska McCain 59-38
3. John McCain- Arizona McCain 53-45
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia McCain 52-47
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho McCain 61-36
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa Obama 54-44
7. David Vitter- Louisiana McCain 59-40
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina Obama 50-49
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma McCain 66-34
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina McCain 54-45
11. John Thune- South Dakota McCain 53-45
No, Democrats who decided to run for re-election have failed to make it out of the convention or Primary. One Republican has failed to do so.
Republicans Defeated in primary/ Convention
1. Bob Bennett- Utah McCain 62-34
Anyway predict away
p.s note to moderators, since this thread is also an overview of the elections, can you please change the title to 2010 Predictions/ Overview, as I can't change the title name.
Looks like the first time was yesterday so now we have one per side. As I have said, this will be a very interesting year to say the least.
Update time. This regarding the Special Election regarding Eric Massa's old seat NY-29. NY Governor citing cost and budget issues will hold the Special Election as part of November's General Election. However, instead of waiting till January to take office the winner will take office right away. What will actually happen is the race will appear on the ballot twice. One for finishing the last two months of Massa's term, and then for the two year term for the next Congress.
Also for GA-9, a special election was held in the seat vacated by Nathan Deal. No one received enough votes in the Special Election last night a runoff will take place on June 8th with candidates Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins (both Republicans)
The Dems hold a 77 seat majority in the House at 254-177, with four vacant seats The Democrats had a 257-178 advantage when the current Congress session started.
Out of the four vacant seats, three were formerly held by Democrats, one by a Republican. Three of the four have Special Election scheduled prior to Election day (one of which is in a runoff), the 4th will be on Election Day itself.
Vacant Seats
1. GA-9. Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21st in order to run for Governor. No one received enough votes on the May 11th Special Election so a runoff between Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins will take place.
2. PA-12. Democratic Congressman John Murtha passed away on Feb 8th, a Special Election will occur on May 18th. Running for the Democrats is Mark Critz, for the GOP it is Tim Burns.
3. HI-1. Neal Abercrombie resigned on Feb 26th in order to run for Governor. A Special Election will occur on May 22nd. GOP candidate is Charles Dijou, two Democrats are running, Ed Case and Blanche Lincoln
4. NY-29. Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned on March 8th as a result of sexual harassment claims. Special Election will run concurrent with the General on November 2nd
Currently 36 members of the House will not be running for re-election, 19 of them are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. However, 38 seats will actually be open (18 Democratic, 20 Republican) as FL-25 Congressman Republican Mario Diaz-Balart will actually be running in FL-21 instead (which is being vacated by his brother) Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart. One Democrat lost in a Primary.
Republicans not seeking re-election
1. John Boozman AR-3 McCain 64-34 running for Senate
2. John Shadegg AZ-3 McCain 57-42 retiring
3. George Radanovich CA-19 McCain 52-46 retiring
4. Mike Castle DE-AL Obama 62-37 running for Senate
5. Ginny Brown-Waite FL-5 McCain 56-43 retiring
6. Adam Putnam FL-12 McCain 50-49 running for FL Comm of Agriculture
7. John Linder GA-7 McCain 60-39 retiring
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart FL-21 McCain 51-49 retiring
9. Mario Diaz-Balart FL-25 McCain 50-49 running in FL-21 instead
10. Mark Kirk IL-10 Obama 61-38 running for Senate candidates Bob Dold-R vs Daniel Seals-D
11. Steve Buyer IN-4 McCain 56-43 retiring, candidates Todd Rokita-R vs Daniel Sanders-D
12. Jerry Moran KS-1 McCain 69-30 running for Senate
13. Todd Tiahrt KS-4 McCain 58-40 running for Senate
14. Pete Hoekstra MI-2 McCain 51-48 running for Governor
15. Vern Ehlers MI-3 McCain 49-49 retiring
16. Roy Blunt MO-7 McCain 63-35 running for Senate
17. Mary Fallin OK-5 McCain 59-41 running for Governor
18. Henry Brown SC-1 McCain 57-42 retiring
19. Gresham Barrett SC-3 McCain 64-35 running for Governor
20. Zack Wamp TN-3 McCain 62-37 running for Governor
Democrats not seeking re-election
1. Artur Davis AL-7 Obama 72-27 running for Governor
2. Marion Berry AR-1 McCain 59-38 retiring
3. Vic Snyder AR-2 McCain 54-44 retiring
4. Diane Watson CA-33 Obama 87-12 retiring
5. Kendrick Meek FL-17 Obama 87-12 running for Senate
6. Brad Ellsworth IN -08 McCain 51-47 running for Senate, candidates Trent Vanhaaften-D vs Larry Bucshon
7. Dennis Moore KS-3 Obama 51-48 retiring
8. Charlie Melancon LA-3 McCain 61-37 running for Senate
9. William Delahunt MA-10 Obama 55-44 retiring
10. Bart Stupak MI-1 Obama 50-48 retiring
11. Paul Hodes NH-2 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
12. Joe Sestak PA-7 Obama 56-43 running for Senate
13. Patrick Kennedy RI-1 Obama 65-33 retiring
14. Bart Gordon TN-6 McCain 62-37 retiring
15. John Tanner TN-8 McCain 56-43 retiring
16. Brian Baird WA-3 Obama 52-46 retiring
17. David Obey WI-7 Obama 56-43 retiring
No House Republicans have lost in a Primary/ Convention, one Democrat has
Democrats losing in Primary/ Convention
1. Alan Mollohan WV-1 McCain 57-42 candidates Mike Oliverio-D vs David McKinley-R
The Dems have a 57-41 edge in the Senate, which becomes 59-41 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 36 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 18 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. Currently out of the 36 Senate seats up for re-election, 12 seats will be open, five currently held by Democrats, seven by Republicans. I will be posting the match ups as they are known.
The breakdown of the 36 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows,
Retiring Democratic Senators
1. Chris Dodd- Connecticut Obama 61-38 retiring
2. Ted Kaufman- Delaware Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment)
3. Roland Burris- Illinois Obama 62-37 retiring (was temp appointment) candidates Alexi Giannoulias-D vs Mark Kirk-R
4. Evan Bayh- Indiana Obama 50-49 retiring
5. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota McCain 53-45 retiring
Retiring Republican Senators
1. George Lemieux- Florida Obama 51-48 retiring (was temp appointment)
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas McCain 57-42 running for Governor
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky McCain 57-41 retiring
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire Obama 54-45 retiring
5. Kit Bond- Missouri McCain 49-49 retiring
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio Obama 51-47 retiring
13 Democrats are running for re-election, 11 Republicans are running for re-election.
Democrats running for re-election
1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas McCain 59-39
2. Barbara Boxer- California Obama 61-37
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado Obama 54-45
4. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii Obama 72-27
5. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland Obama 62-36
6. Harry Reid- Nevada Obama 55-43
7. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York Obama 63-36
8. Chuck Schumer- New York Obama 63-36
9. Ron Wyden- Oregon Obama 57-40
10. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania Obama 54-44
11. Patrick Leahy- Vermont Obama 67-30
12. Patty Murray- Washington Obama 57-40
13. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin Obama 56-42
Republicans running for re-election
1. Richard Shelby- Alabama McCain 60-39
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska McCain 59-38
3. John McCain- Arizona McCain 53-45
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia McCain 52-47
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho McCain 61-36
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa Obama 54-44
7. David Vitter- Louisiana McCain 59-40
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina Obama 50-49
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma McCain 66-34
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina McCain 54-45
11. John Thune- South Dakota McCain 53-45
No, Democrats who decided to run for re-election have failed to make it out of the convention or Primary. One Republican has failed to do so.
Republicans Defeated in primary/ Convention
1. Bob Bennett- Utah McCain 62-34
Anyway predict away
p.s note to moderators, since this thread is also an overview of the elections, can you please change the title to 2010 Predictions/ Overview, as I can't change the title name.
On May 18th we have four states with Primaries (AR, KY, OR & PA) and a Special Election in PA-12, in addition on Sat May 22nd we have a special election in Hawaii-1. Many of these races are quite competitive.
In Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln is in a fight to keep her job against Lt Gov Bill Hatler. Lincoln has led in most of the polls, but it is quite close. Little known D.C Morrison is also running, but could get enough of votes to force it into a runoff. On the GOP side it appears Congressman John Boozman will be the nominee, the only question is will he be able to get 50% in the crowded field to avoid a runoff. Boozman leads both Lincoln and Halter in GE match ups.
In Ketucky we have an open seat with the retirement of Republican Jim Bunning. On the GOP side Rand Paul (Ron Paul's son) appears to be the front runner over Terry Grayson who is the establishment candidate. On the Democratic side Lt Gov Daniel Mongiardo (who ran against Bunning and lost narrowly in 04) is running against AG Jack COnway. The polls show the race close but with Mongiardo in the lead. Most of the general election polls have Paul with a mid to high single digit lead over either Conway or Mongiardo.
In Oregon, its really not much. Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election and will easily win his Primary. On the GOP side Jim Huffman will likely win the Primary, he has very little chance of making the race against Wyden even competitive.
Pennsylvania. After Arlen Specter switched parties Pat Toomey pretty much locked up the GOP nomination, he will face little opposition in the wag of Peg Lusik. On the Democratic side its Dem turned Rep turned Democrat Arlen Specter facing off against Congressman Joe Sestak. Specter's base has long been suburban Philly. Specter was never well liked among conservatives when he was in the GOP and it was the suburban Philly based (mostly moderates) which helped Specter fight off Toomey 04 challenge. For years the GOP has lost massive registration ground in SEPA, as many moderates have bolted from the party. As a result the state GOP is much more conservative than it use to be, and Specter can no longer count on that suburban Philly base to help him hold off Toomey as they simply aren't GOP voters anymore. Sestak a former admiral represents a Congressional district in PA-7, and has seemed to have taken the lead. The ironic thing for Specter here is the fact much of his suburban Philly base that went from GOP to Dem played a large role in him jumping ship from the GOP, but it looks more and more like they back the more liberal Sestak, who represents a portion of the suburban Philly voters in Congress. A General Election race should be close and it appears that Sestak is running better than Specter.
PA-12 Special Election. Following the death of Congressman John Murtha a special election was triggered in this western PA district. While Murtha was able to hold the district for a long time it has been trending GOP for awhile. Gore won it easily, Kerry only narrowly and Obama lost it. In fact its the only district in the country that Kerry won that Obama did not. So no question a GOP trend has gone on in the district, though locally the Dems are still fairly strong. The race pits up GOP businessman Tim Burns against former Murtha aide Mark Critz. Critz has led in most of the polling, though the results are fairly close.
HI-1 Special Election. This one is on Sat May 22nd. A three way race between Republican Charles Dijou and Democrats Ed Case and Coleen Hanabussa. It looks like Dijou will win with Case and Hanabussa splitting the Democratic vote. I highly doubt the GOP holds this seat beyond November, Dijou will only be running against one Democrat, not two splitting the vote, and Neal Aebercrombie (the former Congressman in the district) is on the top of the ticket as he is running for Gov.
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