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Yes, I'm sure you'll be gracing me with statistics on the under 40 crowd for voter turnout during 4th district midterm elections soon enough , oh and enough of the Durham and Orange county only crowd.
Or, you could continue to make fun of Lawson's poll...yeah, that sounds like more fun...right?
Well, I'm just intelligent enough to know how worthless campaign internal polls are, especially those that do not come even remotely close to matching up with the actual demographics of the district.
Well, I'm just intelligent enough to know how worthless campaign internal polls are, especially those that do not come even remotely close to matching up with the actual demographics of the district.
Meh, it's all good. I think it's a rather representative of a disgruntled youth who are sick of establishment incumbents. Can't say I blame them. I'd rather smoke a joint than vote in an incumbent who votes like a neo-con on foreign policy issues but claims to represent me.
The Roche/Lawson primary was highly competitive. I stumped a polling center in Morrisville and can guarantee you that there were practically ZERO Dem poll stumpers and almost as few people who ignored my solicitation for Lawson slim jims.
And I can show you real returns from the NC senate democratic primary that show that yes that did turn out to vote in the Democratic primary in the Orange-Durham area.
In fact, according to the SBOE 76% of primary voters in Orange county cast ballots in the NC democratic senate primary, which precluded them from voting in the republican races.
As to my claims they can all be found on the State board of elections website or derived through simple division of numbers presented therein. http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=69
And I can show you real returns from the NC senate democratic primary that show that yes that did turn out to vote in the Democratic primary in the Orange-Durham area.
In fact, according to the SBOE 76% of primary voters in Orange county cast ballots in the NC democratic senate primary, which precluded them from voting in the republican races.
You forget that the 4th is made up of much more than Orange and Durham, and you also forget that many Dems plan on breaking rank with the establishment in the general. G'night!
Meh, it's all good. I think it's a rather representative of a disgruntled youth who are sick of establishment incumbents. Can't say I blame them.
Even if I were to accept that excuse it would not be to the extent this poll shows. Also the fact this poll is suppose to be of registered voters, and the demographics of the poll don't even come remotely close to the district it shows enormous problems.
You forget that the 4th is made up of much more than Orange and Durham. G'night!
Yes, it also includes some Democratic portions of Chattam, and a mix of some GOP areas, some marginal areas and some Dem areas of Wake. Overall about 1/2 the district is made up of Orange and Durham, and previous midterms spell that out as well.
That is correct but even in wake county 53% of voters voted in the democratic senate primary.
G'night.
Good morning!
Yes, the Senate seat was highly contested and we even had a run off, which explains the high numbers. Burr's challenge was much more safe. Thanks for reminding me about the NC Senate seat. I also forgot about Don Frantz and his run in the 35th for state Senate as well and how there's a high correlation between him and Lawson supporters. RE: the US Senate, Lawson will have all of the Burr AND Beitler votes as well as an alarming number of independent minded Marshall votes. The tighter race for Senate, thanks to Beitler possibly "siphoning" votes, will likely bring out even more Republicans. While I know the GOP establishment doesn't agree with Lawson's foreign policy stance (some are still bitter over the Roche's loss), the distaste for a partisan hack like Price is a far, FAR more bitter to swallow.
To me, it's a perfect storm and I would disregard much of the demographics that make up the county at this moment, or past election results when our economy was not in shambles following Dem leadership. Many of these people will either not vote or actually drum up more support for Burr, which in turn automatically generates more support for Lawson. If this were a presidential election year or the economy wasn't in such bad shape, I'd happily concede the point that Lawson has a snowball's chance in h*ll. Fortunately for him, neither is true.
Personally, I'm kind of miffed that Price began his website within 24 hours of the polls' release and several reports of a push poll within 48 hours of the polls release (the poll starts off neutral, then ends with approximately 4 minutes of Lawson bashing and Price adoration). It shows to me that he's taking the threat more seriously than I hoped, in private at least. In public, of course his staff dismisses it. Best to hedge his bets I suppose.
Yes, the Senate seat was highly contested and we even had a run off, which explains the high numbers. Burr's challenge was much more safe. Thanks for reminding me about the NC Senate seat. I also forgot about Don Frantz and his run in the 35th for state Senate as well and how there's a high correlation between him and Lawson supporters. RE: the US Senate, Lawson will have all of the Burr AND Beitler votes as well as an alarming number of independent minded Marshall votes. The tighter race for Senate, thanks to Beitler possibly "siphoning" votes, will likely bring out even more Republicans. While I know the GOP establishment doesn't agree with Lawson's foreign policy stance (some are still bitter over the Roche's loss), the distaste for a partisan hack like Price is a far, FAR more bitter to swallow.
To me, it's a perfect storm and I would disregard much of the demographics that make up the county at this moment, or past election results when our economy was not in shambles following Dem leadership. Many of these people will either not vote or actually drum up more support for Burr, which in turn automatically generates more support for Lawson. If this were a presidential election year or the economy wasn't in such bad shape, I'd happily concede the point that Lawson has a snowball's chance in h*ll. Fortunately for him, neither is true.
Personally, I'm kind of miffed that Price began his website within 24 hours of the polls' release and several reports of a push poll within 48 hours of the polls release (the poll starts off neutral, then ends with approximately 4 minutes of Lawson bashing and Price adoration). It shows to me that he's taking the threat more seriously than I hoped, in private at least. In public, of course his staff dismisses it. Best to hedge his bets I suppose.
The poll is of REGISTERED voters. If you are polling likely voters and its off somewhat from the demographics of the district you can say ok it had something to do with who the likely voters are (though in this case its still too extreme of a difference), but when you are polling REGISTERED voters and you get this demographic breakout? ITS INSANE. Its nowhere even REMOTELY close to the district. Internal campaign polls are hilarious, especially those that don't even come close to actually being a representation of the districts demographics.
The poll is of REGISTERED voters. If you are polling likely voters and its off somewhat from the demographics of the district you can say ok it had something to do with who the likely voters are (though in this case its still too extreme of a difference), but when you are polling REGISTERED voters and you get this demographic breakout? ITS INSANE. Its nowhere even REMOTELY close to the district. Internal campaign polls are hilarious, especially those that don't even come close to actually being a representation of the districts demographics.
I'm pleased that you believe it's hilarious. Price's campaign staff, based on behavior in the past 48 hours, does not seem to get the punchline. Oh well, not everyone can have such a rich sense of humor.
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, oh and enough of the Durham and Orange county only crowd. 
