Rasmussen poll shows Charlie Crist leading Marco Rubio in Florida Senate race (Democrats, Republicans)

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Smash255

I wouldn't be jumping up and down yet, as you said lets see what happens. Keep in mind this is just one poll, a few weeks ago we had four or five all showing Crist ahead. Now if we see a couple other polls showing a similar result to this one, then I think you can argue Rubio is ahead, but one poll is just that one poll.

oh, you know me better than that: I put very little into polls, especially this far out. My point simply was, I think the swing was bound to happen and originally I posted, just that. The first one was primarily due to the switch over and the attention Crist was getting.

Nita

[sanrene]

Crist declared on April 29, which changed the dynamics of the race.

Before that, he was getting shellacked by Rubio.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Crist declared on April 29, which changed the dynamics of the race.

Before that, he was getting shellacked by Rubio.

He was getting shellacked in the Primary, not the General, as the polls prior to the announcement for a three way were mixed. Anyway fact of the matter is this is one poll showing Rubio ahead, the previous four and five of the last six showed Crist ahead.

So lets reserve judgment and see a few more polls before we start suggesting Rubio is back ahead based off just one poll.

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by Smash255

He was getting shellacked in the Primary, not the General, as the polls prior to the announcement for a three way were mixed. Anyway fact of the matter is this is one poll showing Rubio ahead, the previous four and five of the last six showed Crist ahead.

So lets reserve judgment and see a few more polls before we start suggesting Rubio is back ahead based off just one poll.

Well, before he declared as an Independent, all we had to go on was the GOP primary - the two polls right before he declared were basically moot.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Well, before he declared as an Independent, all we had to go on was the GOP primary - the two polls right before he declared were basically moot.

Granted however the Primary polls have little baring on Rubio's ability to defeat Crist in a three way. Ever since it became obvious that Crist was going to run as an Independent 7 polls have been conducted. Crist has led in 5, Rubio 2 (both Rasmussen). Prior to this, poll Crist led in five of six and four consecutive polls. Based off that it was pretty clear Crist held an advantage.

Now this poll shows Rubio ahead. Could Rubio be ahead now? He could be, I'm not going to deny that. However, lets wait for more polls to come out that show results similar to this one before we say Rubio is back in the lead.

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by Smash255

Granted however the Primary polls have little baring on Rubio's ability to defeat Crist in a three way. Ever since it became obvious that Crist was going to run as an Independent 7 polls have been conducted. Crist has led in 5, Rubio 2 (both Rasmussen). Prior to this, poll Crist led in five of six and four consecutive polls. Based off that it was pretty clear Crist held an advantage.

Now this poll shows Rubio ahead. Could Rubio be ahead now? He could be, I'm not going to deny that. However, lets wait for more polls to come out that show results similar to this one before we say Rubio is back in the lead.

According to your link, only 3 polls have been conducted since Crist declared as Indie. According to my link, the same 3 polls are listed. Crist leads in 2.

Before he declared, it was basically speculation.

Of the last 11 polls taken, Rubio has led in 6 of them.

And the two you like to cite, Public Opinion and McLaughlin are not what one would call "mainstream".

Throw those two out and Rubio leads in 6 of the last nine.

[Mike from back east]

Today's Miami Herald has Charlie Crist up by 6 points (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/07/30/1753595/poll-charlie-crist-has-slight.html - broken link) over Rubio, and WAY ahead of both DEMs in the running. Not a huge lead, but still very impressive for someone who bolted their party.

Excerpt:

- Crist garners just under 40% of the vote in the Senate race, while former Republican House Speaker Marco Rubio trails by only 6%, ... Democratic Senate contenders, Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek, are earning 17 and 13 percent of the vote. Crist has remained the front-runner by receiving half the vote of independents, a fifth of the Republican vote and a whopping 40% of the Democratic vote, the poll shows.

[sanrene]

Not anymore.

Two polls, Rubio +5.

I guess Florida voters have had enough of that lying, treacherous, deceitful, piece of garbage, the quintessential politician that gives politicians a bad name, Crist.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist

Crist losing ground to Rubio in Senate race, poll shows

TAMPA - A new poll shows Marco Rubio slipping ahead of Gov. Charlie Crist in the U.S. Senate race for the first time.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Not anymore.

Two polls, Rubio +5.

I guess Florida voters have had enough of that lying, treacherous, deceitful, piece of garbage, the quintessential politician that gives politicians a bad name, Crist.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist

Crist losing ground to Rubio in Senate race, poll shows

And since the original poster did Rasmussen, here's what Rasmussen said on 8/11/10 with the surveying done on 8/9:

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Rubio with 38% of the vote and Crist at 33% if Congressman Kendrick Meek is the nominee. Meek earns 21%. Only one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

If Greene is the Democrat nominee it's 37% Crist and 36% Rubio.

The sampling error is +/-4.

Election 2010: Florida Senate - Rasmussen Reports™

Have the Dems held their primary yet?

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by LauraC

Have the Dems held their primary yet?

Soon.

Greene Collapse, Meek Surge Hurt Crist - Hotline On Call (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/greene_collapse.php - broken link)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) has turned around his primary campaign against developer Jeff Greene, and that's bad news for Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) chances in the general election, according to a new poll released late today.

Meek's lead over Greene comes as Meek has intensified his TV ad campaign, running spots alleging that Greene profited off "suffering" by betting against so-called risky mortgages in the lead-up to the recent financial crisis. Greene has been the subject of a number of less-than-desirable media profiles in recent weeks, focusing on real estate investments that netted him millions of dollars.

The dem leadership would like very much to support Crist, the dem-in-sheeps-clothing.