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The one thats closest the most on election day. The one that has a history of being close is the most accurate. All polls are going to be off a couple points its about which one is the closest the most
Oh, for goodness sake! I am well aware of Sanrene's negative views of the Obama administration and the Democratic party as a whole, and as such he is predisposed to give more weight to any poll that reflects his take on things. That said, there are several polls going on right now that show very different numbers, and I'm simply asking him to describe the criteria he uses evaluate them, not that I expect him to admit the truth.
I take polls with a grain of salt because I don't think a truly random sample exists. Most people who participate have an ax to grind. (You can see that represented right here on the Politics forum where the moderate position is dramatically underrepresented.) There is really no way to know what will happen in the next six months. Both parties have recently lost high-profile members, and an event of national significance could change things quickly.
Last edited by formercalifornian; 05-07-2010 at 09:15 AM..
Oh, for goodness sake! I am well aware of Sanrene's negative views of the Obama administration and the Democratic party as a whole, and as such he is predisposed to give more weight to any poll that reflects his take on things. That said, there are several polls going on right now that show very different numbers, and I'm simply asking him to describe the criteria he uses evaluate them, not that I expect him to admit the truth.
The pollsters listed at RCP or 538 - they all have credibility....except when they weight the sample too much toward the democrats, which a few of them do on a consistent basis.
For example, the latest ABC/ WaPo poll, had a partisan gap between Ds and Rs of 11 points. Now, NO ONE has a party ID that large anymore. Of course, that kind of sample will naturally skew the results - favorable to the Dems.
I love polls! Supposedly Hillary was going to win! Ahem.....
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