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I'm definitely looking forward to the day where an old, shrinking, economically-segregated and already "part-islamized" 600 Mio. Europe with a low fertility rate stands opposed to a very young, very poor and crime-ridden 2 billion strong continent. Maybe I should really consider moving to Australia, New Zealand or North America.
Fortunately, there is a huge and nearly unscalable natural barrier (the Mediterranean) which won't allow massive refugee flows.
Pretty accurate estimates. According to International Database
598,293,304 population Europe today (without Russia)
571,987,571 population Europe in 2050
1,099,180,700 population Africa today
2,232,385,415 population Africa in 2050
Isn't it 18 miles from Ceuta to Gibralter? It is my understanding that the Med. Sea is 1000 miles at it's absolute widest.
The demographic boom in many african countries like Nigeria is fostering a massive movement of population to europe.
Spain is the easiest target, it's borders are easy to cross. Once in Spain the african immigrants in the worst case will have to spend some time in a retention center, but after that they are set free.
The Spanish government policy about ilegal immigration is increadibly weak, maybe because of the pressure of some economical lobbies, and the corruption in the political class.
Spain has recieved around 8 millon immigrants in the last years, despite it's high unemployement rate, around 25%, with 6 millon unemployed.
The attacks are increasing in number, frequency and violence, and the Spanish police is not allowed to use any kind of special riot control material (despite the spanish riot squads are incredibily violent restraining with its own citizens).
Here are some videos about what has been called the wwb
We cannot discuss anything if we do not know the basic information.I'm Spanish, I understand that most of the people in this forum don't know what is happening in Spain, I think is essential to know the real population data we have.
Spain had aprx. 39millon inhabitants in 1999. Spanish women have a very low birthrate aprox. 8/1000hab (during the last 14 years, not to confuse with the national average that is 9,6/1000, due to the foreign women birthrate, 17/1000).
The natural increase in population = number of Births - number of Deaths was slightly positive (a few hundreds)
So without the massive immigration the population today would be around 39Million.
But the real population today is around 47Millions.
We know that more than one million Spaniards have emigrated from Spain. These are the numbers in the last years.
2012 476
2011 403
2010 380
2009 288
We also know that during 2000-2007 around 5 million immigrants entered into Spain,but from 2008 the number of immigrants diminished
2008 600
2009 550
2010 465
2011 457
2012 315
We have 5 million unemployed, and 2,5 million living off subsidies (specially PER, aid for the country people in the South).
Massive immigration in Spain is sacred. No politician would ever dare to do something to stop or restrain it.
Spanish riot control police is famous because of its vicious aggressiveness against native demostrators, no matter the age.
But when african illegal flea market sellers hijack a bus with 5 people on board, beat the police and destroy urban furniture they do NOTHING.
NO charges, no arrests... And this happened a month ago.
Massive immigration in Spain is sacred. No politician would ever dare to do something to stop or restrain it.
Spanish riot control police is famous because of its vicious aggressiveness against native demostrators, no matter the age.
But when african illegal flea market sellers hijack a bus with 5 people on board, beat the police and destroy urban furniture they do NOTHING.
NO charges, no arrests... And this happened a month ago.
Asylum seekers and refugees are never exempt of prosecution in their host nation, if the crime is committed in this specific country. The story you are telling is highly unbelievable.
We cannot discuss anything if we do not know the basic information.I'm Spanish, I understand that most of the people in this forum don't know what is happening in Spain, I think is essential to know the real [b]population data we have.
The US Census department data is slightly different from yours but has the same basic conclusion. By 1998 natural increase was roughly 5000 people (i.e. births-death). As immigration increases in any country the birth rate tends to go up.
The census department predicts that after 2017 there will be no natural increase, and all population growth will come through immigration. The predicted immigration figures are highly speculative as the host country could change policy.
According to this data immigration peaked in 2007 at just over 700,000 people. I should note that is a lot of people for a small country like Spain.
I should add that the situation in Spain is hardly unique. A roughly similar pattern could be shown for most countries in Europe. In some sense it is true of the USA and Canada, but the timeline is more stretched out as the USA immigration laws were changed almost 5 decades ago. Canada has slightly different immigration patterns as they are attracting a larger percentage of Asian immigration than Latino ones.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 09-20-2013 at 06:40 PM..
I should add that the situation in Spain is hardly unique.
In comparison Italy has only had two years where births outnumber death (2004 and 2006). But immigration numbers are smaller especially considering that Italy is larger than Spain.
The US Census department data is slightly different from yours but has the same basic conclusion. By 1998 natural increase was roughly 5000 people (i.e. births-death). As immigration increases in any country the birth rate tends to go up.
The census department predicts that after 2017 there will be no natural increase, and all population growth will come through immigration. The predicted immigration figures are highly speculative as the host country could change policy.
According to this data immigration peaked in 2007 at just over 700,000 people. I should note that is a lot of people for a small country like Spain.
I should add that the situation in Spain is hardly unique. A roughly similar pattern could be shown for most countries in Europe. In some sense it is true of the USA and Canada, but the timeline is more stretched out as the USA immigration laws were changed almost 5 decades ago. Canada has slightly different immigration patterns as they are attracting a larger percentage of Asian immigration than Latino ones.
The data from the INE (Instituto nacional de estadistica) has been changed recently, I don't know why, I guess it has something to do with some political issues, but in 2003 and 2004 the immigration figures were by far larger, around 1Million each year.
Anyway, I think the US census department predictions have two big mistakes.
The first is that they omit the fact that immigrants birth rate is more than twice than the spanish's and they're going to be the major porcentage of the population in a few years... so birthrate is increasing rapidly, it will make the US census figures obselete in 2-3 years.
The second is that they are not taking into consideration the demographic boom in Africa, specially in countries like Niger, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Congo, Tanzania...
Most of that population will end up in places like Spain, where illegal immigrants are set free after a few days in a detention center (CETI), and are not prosecuted by the police, because Spanish immigration law seems to be designed to allow the enter of any illegal african immigrant.
I think it has very little to do with geography. Spain and Italy are closer to Africa than Germany, but I don't think that is significant. Italy and Spain should never have joined in a Monetary Union with the Germanic countries. The effect is to make them magnets for immigration because people simply want to be inside the EU. Germany has successfully created labor states outside of Southern Europe without the need to import labor into their home country.
Back in the early 1990's Germany was bringing in close to 800,000 people per year (mostly from Turkey) to satisfy the demand for labor. Now with the common currency, southern Europe has become the magnet for immigration while immigration into Germany is now negligible.
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