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Old 10-11-2017, 02:26 PM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
2,827 posts, read 1,007,799 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
no because that means that his kids would then inherit the presidency which is not the case. Many people are predicting that once Putin steps down the presidency will be passed to Sergey Shoygu

You can make a claim that Russia is a dictatorship, but a monarchy it is not. But I don't even think it's a dictatorship.
Russia is currently an autocracy. History has proven this model can be stable until a transition of power naturally occurs. Where this all leads is anyone's guess. Shoigu is likely a backup for now but I highly doubt he's the long term plan since he will be pretty old by the time Putin plans to retire.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:40 PM
 
5,747 posts, read 2,318,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
no because that means that his kids would then inherit the presidency which is not the case. Many people are predicting that once Putin steps down the presidency will be passed to Sergey Shoygu

You can make a claim that Russia is a dictatorship, but a monarchy it is not. But I don't even think it's a dictatorship.
With DKMs post in mind it may well be Medvedev or someone else. I remember what was going on in the early 80s after Brezhnev died. Yeesh. I think they'd want to avoid that again.

And I would agree Russia is an autocracy or even benign dictatorship. We all need to keep im mind the "Time Of Troubles" way back when. I certainly don't like the though of Shoigu next in line for any reason. He hasn't got the background for it and it needs to be somebody with more experience in the world and a different education than he has. Generals and soldiers should not have too much power.
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:20 PM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
3,930 posts, read 2,215,703 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
With DKMs post in mind it may well be Medvedev or someone else. I remember what was going on in the early 80s after Brezhnev died. Yeesh. I think they'd want to avoid that again.

And I would agree Russia is an autocracy or even benign dictatorship. We all need to keep im mind the "Time Of Troubles" way back when. I certainly don't like the though of Shoigu next in line for any reason. He hasn't got the background for it and it needs to be somebody with more experience in the world and a different education than he has. Generals and soldiers should not have too much power.
Yeah I think that from the inner circle Sergey Lavrov would be the best candidate and with the most experience. He has been the foreign minister since 2004 and the Russian ambassador to the UN since 1994. And I don't think Medvedev would be president again, from what I can tell he is unpopular with most Russians
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
3,930 posts, read 2,215,703 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov View Post
Shoigu and Putin have one age (difference of 3 years). What is the point?
If you look at US presidents, most of them were in their late 50s/60s when first elected with a few outliers such as Trump who is 70 years old and JFK who was elected when 43.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._States_by_age

If Putin plans to be president for another decade or two, then yes Shoigu would be pointless, or if they plan to have him to lead the country for several decades. but if he were to serve a term or two then he is still viable. And this isn't my own analysis, this is just what some journalists/academics speculate, but of course they could be way off, for instance who would've predicted that Yelstin would pick Putin to take his place?

Also I guess you have to consider that Russian male life expectancy is only 67 years so you would probably want someone significantly younger.

Most soviet leaders seemed to be in their 50s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ion#Statistics

I've also heard that Valentina Matviyenko will run for president this time for the united Russia party, and then Putin will run as independent.
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Old 10-11-2017, 04:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
Yeah I think that from the inner circle Sergey Lavrov would be the best candidate and with the most experience. He has been the foreign minister since 2004 and the Russian ambassador to the UN since 1994. And I don't think Medvedev would be president again, from what I can tell he is unpopular with most Russians
Medvedev is also a lot more conservative than Putin, more into the mentality of the state. Under his rule I have heard that there would be much more interference in business and the like at all levels and therefore more authoritarian. I'll go with the Russian people on that one. I think they're correct not to like him.
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Old 10-12-2017, 06:24 AM
 
Location: Finland
24,268 posts, read 18,785,278 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
Who is to say they won't? Remember, you need to watch whos boots you lick.
Pffft. We are not scared of no Russians.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
True, the rest of the world would watch and make statements of concern if Putin occupied Helsinki. Maybe place sanctions on some old guys who never leave Russia anyway.
Except the world wouldn't. It would be crossing a line that cannot be crossed. And Putin knows very well that you don't only come here and take.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pigeonhole View Post
My dear Arete, you lost (definitively) Viipuri/Vyborg and Eastern Carelia. In time you will get over it. Meanwhile, try to have a life of your own. Careful though with the Aquavit.
We don't even want it back.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov View Post
3000 or 300?
And we threatened not you, but the Swedes.
Yes, and that time Finns were Swedes.
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Old 10-12-2017, 06:50 AM
 
Location: Russia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete View Post
Yes, and that time Finns were Swedes.
Like Ukrainian were Russian?
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:06 AM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
2,827 posts, read 1,007,799 times
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Finland is like Ukraine, a historical part of Russia, outside of any meaningful defense alliance. It happens to be in the EU which would at worst mean Russia would be sanctioned for taking it over. But that's it.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Finland
24,268 posts, read 18,785,278 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Finland is like Ukraine, a historical part of Russia, outside of any meaningful defense alliance. It happens to be in the EU which would at worst mean Russia would be sanctioned for taking it over. But that's it.
Finland is not a historical part of Russia.

I guess the US, Germany and UK would disagree.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:10 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
13,356 posts, read 7,021,926 times
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I think even NATO is one big bluff. As Newt Gingrich said, the US wouldn't necessarily rush to the defense of Estonia if Russia were to invade, despite their being in NATO. Obviously, even less of an already tenuous and barely credible obligation is owed to Finland, not a NATO member.
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