The future of Ukraine (2014, country, places, people)

[Лютый]

Originally Posted by Wadym

... By the way, Selena, is it you?

Buddy, you have sunk to vulgarity.

[gsgsgs]

I found it here: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/22851


Putin said:

> Russia has always respected the sovereign choice of any nation to organise its political life
> and make all sorts of unions, both military and economic, and we will continue to do so.

obviously this does not include the times when Russia was part of the USSR ?!

> However...
> ... Alongside Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, [Ukraine] is actually an inseparable part
> of the largest economic complex in the world, ...

is it true ? Bigger than EU ? Or does he mean "large" by area of the countries ?

> [Ukraine] will lose its partnerships with the Customs Union states in industry, finance,
> agriculture and transportation

sounds like a threat ...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
IMO., while it is understandable that Ukrainian "Customs Trade" volume might decrease when
they trade more with the EU, the overall sum should be positive. Else they wouldn't do it.
It's the logic of free trade - you buy the cheapest and best products.
What Putin wants is protectionism, increased taxes on European products.

> By very conservative estimates, the total loss for the economy of Russia alone may
> amount to 100 billion rubles on the first stage, that is $3 billion

the total impact should be positive, by the free trade logic. What he means is probably the
sum of the negative impacts on EU-competing industries, or loss in customs.

> I would like to stress that we would be forced to reciprocate [erwidern,vergelten], to protect
> our market. In full compliance with the provisions of the CIS agreement on the free trade zone

hmm, I don't know these. But obviously it's against the idea of free trade

> and with WTO norms,

huh ?? I do know these a bit and IMO this sort of "reciprocation" is not in the spirit of WTO.
We will see, what WTO will say about it ....
Putin had some strange interpretation of international law recently when he entered Crimea :
his interpretation was not shared by anyone, except one biased Russian-Finnish lawyer, AFAIK.

> I would like to stress this, we would be forced to cancel preferences for imports from Ukraine.

who exactly forces you ?

> we are already receiving goods from the EU that are banned for import in Russia

ahh, I see. He means the recent Russian countermeasures to Western sanctions because of Ukraine.
So, that's political, not economical. So, by this logic he sees EU-products entering Russia via
Ukraine as a threat for his political actions, such as in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
It could make his countermeasures harder to control.

> Overall, we are in favour of establishing closer cooperation between the EU and the
> Eurasian Economic Union

merge the economic unions !

> ...I am certain, [the critical situation in Ukraine] cannot be resolved through further escalation
> of force without due consideration of the vital interests of the country’s southeast regions and
> without a peaceful dialogue with these regions’ representatives.

these regions insist to be not a part of Ukraine and thus not included in these considerations.
Would/should they be part of CIS ? That uncontrolled transfer of "goods" that Putin is
concerned about exists to a much greater extend wrt. weapons between Ukraine and
Novorussia. So, by Putin logic, aren't they "forced" to reciprocate ...


================================================== =======
> Russia has always respected the sovereign choice of any nation to organise its political life
> and make all sorts of unions, both military and economic, and we will continue to do so.
> However ... we would be forced to reciprocate

[basically Ukraine would be banned from CIS, AFAIU
or maybe only concerning the products that may enter Ukraine from EU,
I'm not sure.]
================================================== ============

[viribusunitis]

Originally Posted by gsgsgs

> I would like to stress that we would be forced to reciprocate [erwidern,vergelten], to protect
> our market. In full compliance with the provisions of the CIS agreement on the free trade zone

hmm, I don't know these. But obviously it's against the idea of free trade

> and with WTO norms,

huh ?? I do know these a bit and IMO this sort of "reciprocation" is not in the spirit of WTO.
We will see, what WTO will say about it ....

The CIS (or GUS in German) created a free trade area called CISFTA back in 2011 which eliminated some import and export duties. Art 25 CISFTA Agreement stipulates that any member can suspend the validity of the Agreement with respect to a party that violates the provisions of the CISFTAA and causes serious harm to the objectives of the free trade area. Since Russia is the most powerful member in the CISFTA you can be sure that they will find a reason to suspend the Agreement for Ukraine.

The WTO Agreements contain special provisions which give developing countries special rights and which give developed countries the possibility to treat developing countries more favourably than other WTO Members. My guess is that Russia considers Ukraine as a developing country and grants them some special rights. This will probably change.

[gsgsgs]

thanks. I found it in the archive, (currently it gives a 404-error)

http://web.archive.org/web/20070714215244/http://docsonline.wto.org/GEN_highLightBottom.asp?qu=&doc=D%3A%2FDDFDOCUMENT S%2FT%2FWT%2FREG%2F82%2D1%2EDOC%2EHTM&skip

2007-version
Article 25
Termination of participation in the agreement
1. Any Contracting Party may terminate its participation in the Agreement by sending,
six months before leaving, an official written notification to other Contracting Parties
concerning its intention to leave the Agreement.
2. In the event that any of the Contracting Parties violates the provisions of this Agreement
that causes a serious damage for the achievement of its objectives, other Contracting Parties
shall have the right to make a decision on the suspension of validity of the Agreement or of
its individual provisions with respect to this Contracting Party or to make a decision on its
individual provisions with respect to this Contracting Party or to make a decision on its
exclusion from the number of the Agreement Members.
3. For purposes of settling possible disputes and claims, as well as those of material nature,
the provisions of this Agreement continue to be effective with respect to the Contracting Party
that terminated its participation up to the full regulation of all the requirements.

Done in the city of Moscow on 15 April 1994, in one original copy, in the Russian language.
The original copy is with the Archive of the Government of the Republic of Belarus that will send the
Contracting Parties, signatories of this Agreement, its certified copy.

[Scrat335]

Meeting in Minsk.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR0-6r_9XRA

[travric]

My guess is that Russia considers Ukraine as a developing country and grants
them some special rights. This will probably change.

Perhaps a developing dire enemy?

Some may know now that NATO has now ramped up efforts to counter Rossiya's deft and aggressive foreign policy by helping to update Ukraine's military and deploying more military personnel in Eastern Europe. Looks like Mr. Putin's policies have rreally spooked everybody no less than the Baltics. Thing is I believe Rossiya has asked for this. European analysis no doubt shows that they cannot count on Rossiya to do things 'by the book' anymore. I'm sure they do not wish to see more 'annexations'.

[gsgsgs]

on that picture, where Putin and Poroschenko shake hands, which was printed
in many newspapers - , doesn't Putin look like he is laughing/smiling diabolically ?
Like he enjoys his unpredictability and has already the next surprise in petto

------------------------
Dr. Strangelove: But the whole point of the Doomsday Machine is lost...
if you keep it a secret, why didn't you tell the world, eh?
Russian Ambassador DeSadesky: It was to be announced at the
Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises.

--------edit------------
it doesn't look so in the video, just the chosen picture (IMO)

[Maksim_Frolov]

Originally Posted by travric

You know I think if the French are depending on Mr. Putin they build on mud as well as their antipathy to the West.

The fact they are there shows that perhaps Mr. Putin has bit off more than he can chew and has unleashed something that even he cannot control. I'm sure curious how the Donbass militias feel about Rossiya's 'help'. No doubt they have to feel it should do more and i woldn't be surprised if there's much consternation in the kremlin that they aren't doing anything more.

At this point, I'd say the Crimean annexation which started this Russian 'Reconquista' tidies up Rossiya's strtagic and geographical interests. They look good now with more control in the Caspian and Black Sea. What's proving difficult is winning the battle among the people that is going in Eastern Ukraine turning brother against brother. It frankly is not going well thus attracting all pro-Russian sympathizers from different nationalities. Btw some Spanish are there too...understandable....see 'Reconquista'.

It all started with an armed coup in Kiev. That actively supported the West.

By the way, there is evidence of the results of the collapse of the Boeing? Why the UK does not publish the results? It's been 2 months, how much more you can hide information from people?

[Maksim_Frolov]

Originally Posted by travric

Perhaps a developing dire enemy?

Some may know now that NATO has now ramped up efforts to counter Rossiya's deft and aggressive foreign policy by helping to update Ukraine's military and deploying more military personnel in Eastern Europe. Looks like Mr. Putin's policies have rreally spooked everybody no less than the Baltics. Thing is I believe Rossiya has asked for this. European analysis no doubt shows that they cannot count on Rossiya to do things 'by the book' anymore. I'm sure they do not wish to see more 'annexations'.

Very clever position. Organize military coup, to provoke Russia to aggression, and then blame it all over. Just like with Boeing, first blame Putin, and then hide the results of the investigation.

[Selena822]

Originally Posted by Лютый

Buddy, you have sunk to vulgarity.

I don't care) If for "conscious" ukrainians all men here are drunk criminals and any woman from Donetsk (or- like woman on that photo- from Gorlovka) is a prostitute, it tells a lot about the reason why we don't want to be the same country anymore. Some persons can't understand one simple thing: bombs and bullets doesn't know whom they are killing- counscious Ukrainian or "terrorists", their ostentatious patriotism will not work in a combat zone. Let him laugh while he can.
Have problems with connection again, don't know for how long.