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How ironic; BAL - that's Ball in Russian.
And so it begins ( or rather continues.)
In that video Maxim posted earlier was a recording of negotiations between Ukrainian crew and the Russian crew ( with few Russian sailors who overheard it pitching in from time to time, which is actually a hilarious part.)
I can't clearly understand everything, but from what I can, I summon that it's definitely a situation where Ukraine was trying to flex its muscle ( which it doesn't have under the circumstances, so I see it as yet another attempt of Poroshenko to get Americans/NATO involved.)
I didn't realize until now how seriously weak his presidential position is at this point.
So yes, getting these foreign forces involved into the conflict is really his preference, if not to say desperate need.
The sailors currently being held by Russia all hail from Russian speaking areas of southern Ukraine. The news is hitting some of these areas hard and making local people pretty angry at Russia right now. And they were not so anti Russian before. I'm speaking first hand from people I know living in the same cities. Its counter productive for Russia to attack eastern and southern ukraine. I only see this pushing the sides further apart. If it was a provocation by Ukraine, and I believe it was, this was the WRONG way to react to it. Putin once again putting Russia in a bad position because he can't help his mafia tough guy wannabe roots.
The sailors currently being held by Russia all hail from Russian speaking areas of southern Ukraine. The news is hitting some of these areas hard and making local people pretty angry at Russia right now. And they were not so anti Russian before. I'm speaking first hand from people I know living in the same cities. Its counter productive for Russia to attack eastern and southern ukraine. I only see this pushing the sides further apart. If it was a provocation by Ukraine, and I believe it was, this was the WRONG way to react to it. Putin once again putting Russia in a bad position because he can't help his mafia tough guy wannabe roots.
You respond to a statement I made on a different matter.
I am aware that the sailors being held by Russia "hail from Russian speaking areas of Southern Ukraine" - I saw the "interrogation," I heard the recording of negotiations. They sound the same more or less as Russians living in Southern regions.
I am sorry, I don't take your "hearing first hand from people you know" in the area seriously, because while these people definitely exist, your *sampling* is extremely limited. Hey, even when Donetsk raised up against coup d'état in Kiev, there were 700-800 people staging support for "untied Ukraine" there.
This is the type of people you hear from, but they don't necessarily represent the opinion of majority.
Of course I hear from different people on FB too, but that's not enough, I can always look up the independent polls (made by independent people) as here for example from different Ukrainian cities, Kiev including;
You might need to ask translation from your friends, but here is the RUSSIAN speaker who sounds the most aggressive towards the event ( so those people definitely exist,) but OVERALL, when it comes to South-Eastern part of Ukraine, this part of the country definitely doesn't come across as loyal to Poroshenko at all. Hence - the martial law imposed on them.
And this, in contrast, is a very angry tirade against the current situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian in Kiev from a very angry woman, who is ready to see "Putin to come and take care" of it all.
So while I understand that language alone does not always determine the political views/loyalties in Ukraine, for the most part it still coincides with them, particularly when it comes to westernmost and easternmost parts of Ukraine.
And now about the sailors and this whole situation;
This is what I gather on a basis of what I see/hear.
It does look like it IS a provocation on behalf of Ukraine, ( yes, Poroshenko seems to be more and more desperate, BUT it's gladly picked up by Russia and turned into a showcase. ( Putin doesn't mind to pick up few bonus points, after his latest loss of popularity on domestic front.)
I was listening to the recording of negotiations, and the Russian guy ( the officer most likely, since he sounded very professional and quite polite, going into the lengthy explanation to Ukrainians, that "yes, before your ships could pass, but today we've received the order to put a stop to it. We don't know the reason for this order, but we have to follow it. It's not forever, it's just for one day. You'll be able to make it through again, just not today. We've been ordered to close it, so you'll have to wait." ( I hope I remember it all correctly - just don't feel like going through it again now.)
This is number one. Number two, watching the interrogation, I assume that Ukrainian sailors are already made a part of the show ( here they are, reading from the script whatever they are reading, and not looking too concerned or nervous about the whole situation.)
Judging by the trumpeting of Russia Channel 1 News, that "two additional Ukrainian boats took off from Berdyansk to help ( "but once they realized that the first three were stopped, they turned around; hence - a direct proof of planned provocation on behalf of Ukraine.")
Three wounded Ukrainian sailors are in Kerch hospitals; their wounds are not serious/life threatening, and the boats didn't ask for permission in advance ( so it's all their fault, violation of international laws/conventions yada-yada-yada.)
So what can I say? Russia is in much better position to flex its muscle than Ukraine in this situation.
The fact that Russian authorities open the criminal case against these Ukrainian sailors, only proves that they want to make a show case out of it all I assume.
Yeah.. Poroshenko looks desperate enough in this whole situation; his presidency is anything but assured with approaching elections.
That's where all this hysteria about the "Russian invasion" is coming from, and that's why he needs NATO to get involved ( because of that, really, not because Russia is planning any invasion.)
"(KIEV, Ukraine) — The Ukrainian president has urged NATO to deploy naval ships to the Sea of Azov amid a standoff with Russia.
President Petro Poroshenko made the call in an interview with the German daily Bild published Thursday, saying that “Germany is one of our closest allies and we hope that states within NATO are now ready to relocate naval ships to the Sea of Azov in order to assist Ukraine and provide security.”
I am coming to a conclusion that's the reason he is begging for it to save his presidency.
Any invasion on another hand wouldn't be in interest for Russia at this point.
Putin is no fool, he knows how to play his cards.
I can't imagine why he would want to save it. It can't be a fun job. He lacks support in the entire country, not one side over another. He's done some good things but overall... no. I'm guessing he did this to make Russia look bad but my point is Russia fell for it and made it even worse by forcibly capturing these guys and holding them in jail as if they committed a crime. Putin is playing right into the anti-Russian forces in Ukraine to bring Russia's standing even lower in areas that he might have some sympathy. If this was Poroshenko's design, he won. The only parts of Ukraine that want an accommodation with Russia is a shrinking portion of the over 40 population.
Language has some relation to viewpoints but that can be more closely traced to those who consume Russian state news. This again, is much more likely in the 40 plus crowd. The younger half don't watch it at all so don't believe in it. I'm fluent in Russian but Ukrainian sounds "Greek" to me.
What came after, when Donbass decided to defend itself and how many civilians ( children included) have been murdered - I think I've posted this before.
So yes, there is a lot of blood on the hands of this current regime in Ukraine.
All true.
Anything Russia does is bad, that is a given in the western world. Russia could save the planet from an asteroid swarm or alien invasion and still be accuse of aggressive behavior. Russia has nothing to lose when it comes to the west, Russia can do no right.
So they do what needs to be done. The West has made itself irrelevant, especially Murika. Russia is not alone. Here's a reminder just incase you forgot.
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