Red River flooding 2013 (Fargo, Grand Forks, Wahpeton: allergies, versus, food)

[dutchinnd]

Dan--anything to add?
From this afternoon's Forum web article:

'With winter dragging on and the melting process slowed to a halt, the area is projected to be in for a “significant flood” this spring, says Greg Gust, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks.

“Let’s just say it’s going to be in the realm of some of the big floods we’ve seen in the last few years,” he said, referring to floods in 2010 and 2011.'

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by dutchinnd

Dan--anything to add?
From this afternoon's Forum web article:

'With winter dragging on and the melting process slowed to a halt, the area is projected to be in for a “significant flood” this spring, says Greg Gust, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks.

“Let’s just say it’s going to be in the realm of some of the big floods we’ve seen in the last few years,” he said, referring to floods in 2010 and 2011.'

The new update is issued tomorrow Thursday with updated probablistic data.

But yes from what Greg said certainly looking for a major flood event in the basin....but beyond that cant add too much. The big ? is weather..... we are looking rather dry thru the end of the month now....but still below average temps. Not as so extremely cold after Wednesday....but highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s through next week dont melt much other than surface street-parking lot stuff. The general issue into April is the longer it waits to begin the main melt...the better the odds at getting a sudden pattern change and warm up and rain event. That is where the trouble lies. The longer you wait into April the odds of a slow orderly melt start to decline.

[Kamsack]

Forum update article. Info from city is they plan on opening sandbag central at some point to make another 500k sandbags to add to their existing 750k pile. It says for a protection height of 42ft they need 1.1 milllion sandbags. They will look closely at the 10 pct probability number.



Fargo to build 500,000 new sandbags to prep for flood that could rival 2010, 2011 | INFORUM | Fargo, ND

[dutchinnd]

So this year's flood may well be in the top 5:

Weather Service says Fargo Should Prepare for "Top 5 Flood" - Valley News Live - KVLY/KXJB - Fargo/Grand Forks

[Kamsack]

Here is a link to the probalistic graph for Fargo Red River. black line is what the models are forecasting based on many numerous past climatological scenarios given the state of the snowpack and water as of mid March.
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks: Red River of the North at Fargo

You can use the NWS Grand Forks AHPS page to view any forecast point....
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks

This is a great new site as well developed by the Red River basin commission with assistance from NWS.
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS LAKE FLOOD INFORMATION PORTAL | Red River Basin Decision Information Network

Here is a text version of the latest outlook with info for various other points....
Hydrologic Outlook Products for Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks, ND

[franktank232]

We have friends who live in the area..i told them about a week ago to prepare for the worst. Sounds really bad.

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by franktank232

We have friends who live in the area..i told them about a week ago to prepare for the worst. Sounds really bad.

Actually Fargo itself isnt really impacted too much as over the years since 97 flood and especially since the 09 flood....some homes along the river have been bought out or moved....leaving more space for sandbags. Also over the last few years 15 miles of permanent levees have been created. The lower areas of town up around El Zagel and Edgewood Golf course and around Shanley HS are sandbagged....but Fargo is well prepared for a 40 ft crest if it is that high. Most of the town goes on with normal life. It is the rural areas that have the hardest time....down by Horace-Oxbow and then out west of West Fargo and up through Harwood with the overland flooding....where the water gets out of the banks of the Sheyenne and other small tribs and spreads out for miles and miles. Those residents often have ring dikes around their homes and boat/in out as needed.

Right now the city will build sandbags dikes to 42.5 ft....and you usually want some 1-2 ft of room at the top for wave action...so anything 40.5 or below they will be prepared for.

If your friend lives anywhere west of University Ave and esp West of I-29 then no worries at all....

[Fargobound]

It will be interesting to see how this works out in the coming weeks. It looks pretty dry this week

[Kamsack]

Entering the critical stretch here soon. We keep track what is called melting degrees and past history suggest we need 40-50 of them to start the main melt. Right now as of Tuesday none in Fargo this season. A melting degree day can be defined by using the average temperature of the day (max plus min divide by 2) and then subtracting from 30. We will start to gather a few Thursday-Friday-Saturday....but not a whole lot as highs in Fargo upper 30s but lows still in the lower to mid 20s. So will be hard to get average temps but above 30 during the stretch. Then looks like a cool down again Sun-Mon-Tues....but long range models disagree greatly on this. Next week and the week after are the critical periods to watch out for weather wise and see if we can sustain any warmth to start the main melt...i.e. ditches starting to break up. etc. Thoughts are it may take until April 10th-15th period to do so. But stay tuned as there are many variable at play and confidence in any one is quite low as pattern is quite volatile.

Snow water cores indicate 3.7 to 7 inches of snow in the snowpack in the region.... If we can maintain a slow gentle melt once it begins without major precipitation the rivers starting out a lower levels than in past big flood years can handle it somehwat ok....but if flash melt or get a rain event at the wrong time...then all bets are off.

Heavy snowpack in southern Manitoba and the northern Devils Lake basin will mean flooding issues as well along the Pembina River in Neche/Walhalla and Devils Lake is likely to go up 2-3 ft this year. Lots of water for the Souris basin as well upstream of Minot.

[franktank232]

Dan-

Euro/GFS ...nothing shows any warm air getting into N Dakota and I see a lot of low pressure systems heading towards my area of Wisconsin...might have more snow up your way to contend with yet! Ugly ugly spring...

Grand Forks was -11F below normal for the month of March...