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Old 04-01-2013, 07:58 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by franktank232 View Post
Dan-

Euro/GFS ...nothing shows any warm air getting into N Dakota and I see a lot of low pressure systems heading towards my area of Wisconsin...might have more snow up your way to contend with yet! Ugly ugly spring...

Grand Forks was -11F below normal for the month of March...
Hi there and thanks for the message. Was at work today and highly varied solutions....Euro way north and warm Fri night ....GEM in the middle and worst case with rain/snow and liquid amounts over half inch....GFS at least 12z was farther south.

We are a transition period over the next 2 weeks which will eventually lead to a milder and wetter pattern...how it gets there is always a big ? and one which models typically have a poor forecast for days ahead of time.

BTW family headed down to La Crosse/Onalaska this upcoming weekend as our oldest goes to the Allergy clinic there for testing every 6 months. He has numerous food allergies. Love it there and enjoy our visists.
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:30 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Looks like a little snow band will drop southeast into southeastern ND (rain to start -- then snow) ....a few inches worth... Friday night into early Saturday.

Weather person was down in Colfax in Richland county for a talk and initial melt that created ponding had soaked into the ground the next day.

If we can keep the melt going slowly this is a good thing and a lot will seep in.

Dan
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:36 AM
 
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-------" soaked into the ground the next day"----

No frost ?
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:52 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arkansas Mac View Post
-------" soaked into the ground the next day"----

No frost ?
Frost depths are 60 inches or so.... but the soil in most areas froze dried up.....so even frost it allows a lot to percolate down.
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:38 PM
 
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It looks like we're in deep poop now if next weeks forecast pans out.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:06 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fargobound View Post
It looks like we're in deep poop now if next weeks forecast pans out.
Working tonight...and right now it looks like a three-quarter inch precip amount for the region.... though it does look higher north of Fargo thinking 6-10 inches in Grand Forks for snow .... a bit less down in Fargo.


This will be the latest melt (meaning ice leaving the rivers) in over 100 years.
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Old 04-13-2013, 08:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaninEGF View Post
Working tonight...and right now it looks like a three-quarter inch precip amount for the region.... though it does look higher north of Fargo thinking 6-10 inches in Grand Forks for snow .... a bit less down in Fargo.


This will be the latest melt (meaning ice leaving the rivers) in over 100 years.
Sounds sort of scarey? Does that mean we will have a chance that flooding won't be so bad? Or, that the water is gonna be backed up longer due to the ice jams, and flooding could be worse? Particularly along the North flowing Red River.
I'm certainly hoping for the latter. Hopefully some of the large snow banks will be melted like they have been doing.
I heard that there was a news channel showing aerial pics of the state of N.D. just couple days ago...in Calif...Brother lives there..He said the broadcaster was predicting dire consequences looking at "not one piece of brown dirt showing" for the whole state of N.D. From that perspective it is pretty scarey.
Dan...any thoughts?

Last edited by JanND; 04-13-2013 at 08:50 AM.. Reason: edit text
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Old 04-13-2013, 03:29 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JanND View Post
Sounds sort of scarey? Does that mean we will have a chance that flooding won't be so bad? Or, that the water is gonna be backed up longer due to the ice jams, and flooding could be worse? Particularly along the North flowing Red River.
I'm certainly hoping for the latter. Hopefully some of the large snow banks will be melted like they have been doing.
I heard that there was a news channel showing aerial pics of the state of N.D. just couple days ago...in Calif...Brother lives there..He said the broadcaster was predicting dire consequences looking at "not one piece of brown dirt showing" for the whole state of N.D. From that perspective it is pretty scarey.
Dan...any thoughts?
Jan....still a lot of question in regards to the snowmelt. One it is soooo late...latest river break up in over 100 years. 1979 is the closest thing to this lateness and bad flood that year as ithere was rain and thunderstorms at time of melt in mid to late April.

Yes to this point...things have melted slowly.....but not warm enough for much to make it to the ditches/river systems. If we had no more precip and a continued below average temp regime (remember normal highs nr 55 now !) then a bad flood may have been avoided for some or most. There was lots of black showing in the valley...except in the far south from about Christine to Wahpeton to the headwaters of the Red at White Rock Lake where snow was still deep and no black was showing as of a few days ago.

Now this storm adding 0.75 precip liquid not a good thing and only delays things. Will it make the flood any worse?? Honestly dont know...I think the same probablities that were issued on March 18th are still in play....as a storm of this magnitude is not extra-ordinary for April. It would appear no major flood start for at least another week and toward late April must watch for a big warm up and rain.....Rain causes worst issues than snow....heavy rain that is....as can get 1-2 inches of liquid from a big rainstorm versus a 10 inch snow may have 0.8.

There may be pressure if indeed we get the heavy snow widespread as we think for the RFC to do another outlook or something to that affect.

That is about all I can say....
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Old 04-13-2013, 05:41 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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See the winter weather posts for a graphic showing snowfall for the state for this storm.

Dan NWS GF
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Old 04-15-2013, 07:04 AM
 
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Thanks Dan....You are a great asset to this Forum!!
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