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Old 04-28-2013, 10:36 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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good news this morning is that red river flows south of fargo are about half of what was expected at the gage at enlow so new forecast pegs crest early May 1st 36.5 to 37 ft.....
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Old 04-29-2013, 10:16 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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One stop flood forecasting page from NWS Grand Forks

NWS Grand Forks Flood Briefing Page

Updated Fargo forecast crest lowered to around 35.5 ft
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Old 04-29-2013, 10:53 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Great Red River floodcam for East Grand Forks MN

Sorlie Bridge Flood Camera
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Old 04-29-2013, 09:04 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Well this is turning into the flood that wasnt....fargo will crest likely under 35 ft now... good news of course....but ugh so much still to learn
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Old 04-30-2013, 10:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by DaninEGF View Post
Well this is turning into the flood that wasnt....fargo will crest likely under 35 ft now... good news of course....but ugh so much still to learn
Sorry, but trust the old time farmers more than the River Forecasts.
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Old 04-30-2013, 10:29 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Originally Posted by fourwinds View Post
Sorry, but trust the old time farmers more than the River Forecasts.
why?
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:58 AM
 
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Originally Posted by DaninEGF View Post
why?
Because farmers that have history with their own land has an understanding of how much runoff will likely be coming in the spring based on circumstances like dry falls, water content of snow, etc. Just with my own brothers and uncles, they knew that 1997 would be absolutely horrible (and it was, theie little creek became a raging river) while this year they thought would be of minor significant (the little creek barely moved out of its banks after being a dry creek since last July).

I certainly understand how one farmer in one county couldn't assess the whole Red River basin, but if two or three farmers in every county were asked to assess the flood situation in March (based on some type of scale for their view of potential runoff), their overall view would be a metric that would likely be a good predictor of how much runoff there will be (which is very different from predicting crests). Farmers understand their own soil and how it behaves when its dry (2013) vs when its wet (1997 and others).
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Old 05-04-2013, 05:22 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Originally Posted by fourwinds View Post
Because farmers that have history with their own land has an understanding of how much runoff will likely be coming in the spring based on circumstances like dry falls, water content of snow, etc. Just with my own brothers and uncles, they knew that 1997 would be absolutely horrible (and it was, theie little creek became a raging river) while this year they thought would be of minor significant (the little creek barely moved out of its banks after being a dry creek since last July).

I certainly understand how one farmer in one county couldn't assess the whole Red River basin, but if two or three farmers in every county were asked to assess the flood situation in March (based on some type of scale for their view of potential runoff), their overall view would be a metric that would likely be a good predictor of how much runoff there will be (which is very different from predicting crests). Farmers understand their own soil and how it behaves when its dry (2013) vs when its wet (1997 and others).
Hi I enjoy and look forward to your posts....

This issue has been debated a lot of course. One of many issues includes the data ingested into the River Forecast Center's river models need to be entered with a specific format....so that it can be read by the program. The river modeling is all done on computers using current conditions....modeled into their system.

What is needed is a much denser network of observers who will do snow core water measurements. There are very very very few out there....and not nearly enough to get a good spatial representation to current conditions. Thus what is ingested into the river models is modeled snow water as read by remote sensing (satellites). Sometimes they are too high/low. Also when frost probes say the frost is xx deep....the models read that to mean nothing will infiltrate down. It appears that dry ground freezing can accept much more liquid than a wet frozen ground. But in the modeling world it is yes/no and not maybe.

Thus when you have unusual circumstances such as 2013 with the very late melt the usual modeled data ingested can be in error as it turned out this year.

The entire NWS observation system is being cut very severely right now....there are cooperative observers who form the backbone of the climate network who for years have done daily temps/precip records and they are paid monthly for their services and dedication as they must do it daily or if they are gone have someone else come and do it. But with budget cutbacks at NWS....paid observers may be on the way out. Also snow paid observers may be cut too. Like in Fargo....the ASOS at Fargo Hector Airport is the where the climate data for fargo is kept. ASOS doesnt measure snow and has a very hard time measuring liquid equivalent in the snow as wind often blows the snow and thus misses the catch. Thus for Fargo we depend on a snow paid observer who happens to be the cooperative observer in North Moorhead. He is close enough to the airport to count so we can use his snow/water for the Fargo climate. He is paid additionally for every 6 hour snow report he makes. If he is not paid. he will likely quit. Thus the real possibility in the future of losing snowfall data for Fargo for climate purposes. For official climate purposes you must have a 12 UTC report. The FAA forbids tower personnel from going outside and doing any measurements.

Thus without paid observers we are left at trying to recruit volunteer dedicated observers who would do snow core water readings each Monday Jan-Mar period. Some water shed districts have them in Minnesota....but not in North Dakota.

So what I am saying the farmers may feel like there will be no flood from what they see....but there is no way to turn what they feel into a specific numerical number for input into the river models.

Dan
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Old 05-04-2013, 06:37 PM
 
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So what does the long term outlook call for?

Want thunder and some weather excitement, but I have a feeling the spigot had turned off.
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Old 05-04-2013, 07:44 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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Originally Posted by Fargobound View Post
So what does the long term outlook call for?

Want thunder and some weather excitement, but I have a feeling the spigot had turned off.
We need some warmer and drier weather for the farmers to get into the fields to plant..

Not a stormy pattern...with temps warming early next week into the lower 70s then cooling back in the 50s late week.

Our long term outlook for the summer advertises normalish to maybe a bit blo average temps and about normal to a bit blo normal precip.
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