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Old 08-11-2018, 10:05 AM
 
7,292 posts, read 8,128,081 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katana49 View Post
Agreed for the most part. I have an older friend who is pretty affluent, one of the things he collects is expensive watches. Part of his collection was initially for investment purposes, but he's given up ever recouping what he's spent on them now, the market just isn't there. He's lucky if he's able to break even when selling one of his pieces. Sure, some rare watches and special editions will go up in value, but overall, luxury watches are catering to a smaller and smaller demographic and lower demand is keeping prices stagnant or declining.

But I don't see the high end watch manufacturers trying to incorporate smart technology into their watches, at least not for their whole line. Most high end watches are valued as such because of the automatic movement and the precision craftsmanship, not because of the latest gadgets. Some innovation is still going on, but most of it pertains to using more exotic materials or making an automatic as thin as possible.
A couple of things. I just read Deloitte's latest Swiss watch outlook FWIIW.
The luxury realm of watches - expensive semi-customs or top notch off the shelf watches like Rolex, Ulessy Nardin etc. etc. are doing very well. The luxury custom segment, some guy/gal making $500K+ watches in the garage or a small shop, has never been better. There's overlap too as Nardin and most of the known brands have customs too.

The mid-market stuff say $2,000-$5,000 is doing really well too and 12, 18 mos projections are very strong.

The lower end say $250-$1,500 is struggling.

_____________________

I'm a lightweight watch investor. A friend here in town is a whale watch investor. We both make money on the investment side, although mine is nearly all unrealized. I have 6 total investment watches, he has 25-30 on a rolling average basis. I buy and hold, my newest investment watch has been in my hands since 2011. He looks to pay more than a store would pay for a trade or sale but less than a legit buyer. His goal is to buy, clean, referb if needed and sell within 3-6 mos. although the hold times are much greater for really high end stuff and the best pieces he will hold. He runs his watch investments like a side business. I keep mine as an inflation hedge and for nth degree diversification and fun.

This same guy also makes money buying and sell old firearms.

_____________________

I like your analysis at the end. Low and mid-line makers are incorporating smartwatches into their lines. I doubt we will soon see a Franck Muller with iTunes and phone capability.
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Old 08-11-2018, 11:05 AM
 
2,268 posts, read 1,222,515 times
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I don't consider Rolex to be a top tier watchmaker. They have the strongest brand of any watchmaker out there, but half the cost (probably more than half, frankly) is because of their name, not the quality of their watches. They make some expensive watches to be sure, but they only command those prices because of the materials used, not because of some extraordinary build quality or innovation. (Like their bread and butter watches, the Submariner and the Datejust. There's really nothing special about them, but they command higher prices than watches with demonstrably better quality and features.) Personally I think Omega, Breitling, or even some lower tier brands like Ball and Oris are producing a better watch than Rolex. That being said, a Rolex holds its value better than pretty much any other brand. So for investment purposes, a Rolex is a good bet.

My post was primarily geared toward the low and mid market aftermarket, but I am surprised that new sales of $2-5k are doing well. I don't think that will continue to be honest, as I would consider my age group to be the key demographic that price range is catering to, 30-45, and even in the affluent northern suburbs of DFW, I have few friends that care that much to buy a watch in that price range or higher.

The high end market (which I generally consider starts at $20k or more) is doing well. The rich get richer, and all that.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:01 PM
 
7,292 posts, read 8,128,081 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katana49 View Post
I don't consider Rolex to be a top tier watchmaker. They have the strongest brand of any watchmaker out there, but half the cost (probably more than half, frankly) is because of their name, not the quality of their watches. They make some expensive watches to be sure, but they only command those prices because of the materials used, not because of some extraordinary build quality or innovation. (Like their bread and butter watches, the Submariner and the Datejust. There's really nothing special about them, but they command higher prices than watches with demonstrably better quality and features.) Personally I think Omega, Breitling, or even some lower tier brands like Ball and Oris are producing a better watch than Rolex. That being said, a Rolex holds its value better than pretty much any other brand. So for investment purposes, a Rolex is a good bet.

My post was primarily geared toward the low and mid market aftermarket, but I am surprised that new sales of $2-5k are doing well. I don't think that will continue to be honest, as I would consider my age group to be the key demographic that price range is catering to, 30-45, and even in the affluent northern suburbs of DFW, I have few friends that care that much to buy a watch in that price range or higher.

The high end market (which I generally consider starts at $20k or more) is doing well. The rich get richer, and all that.
Good post.

Rolex is an odd bird. They make a lot of frilly-diamond encrusted-shiny gold show off watches. All the while they make a number of the toughest working watches available.
I don't know about Rolex costing per se but they do make and design all their movements in-house just a handful of makers do that, they use the best steels, the best crystals etc. most of their watches are Superlative Chronometer rated - plus/minus 2 seconds per day and they are freakishly tough.
Anecdotes:
1). My father was an airline pilot and a farmer. He wore and used a 1963 GMT "Pepsi" from 1963 until he died in 1991 - digging ditches, cutting/hauling hay, cutting sheep/hogs/bulls/horses and flying. I have it now and it's near mint (albeit with a new crystal) in appearance and function about -5 seconds per day.
2). A friend of mine was an underwater welder. It's a long story but he was gifted a 1969 Rolex Sea Dweller from a friend of his who had to quit diving in late 1989 or early '90. I'm lucky enough to have the watch and a good bit of provenance (dive logs, pics etc.).....most days from 1969-late 2016 that watch was submerged in salt water. Often, best guess over a 1,000 dives to mixed gas depths and countless dive less deep. It's about a +9 seconds per day watch now.

All that said I'm not a Rolex fanboy at all. I'm more of Doxa, Alpina, Oris guy for daily wear and Ball has long been one of my favs.

Ball, Oris, Omega etc. use ETA movements broadly.......as Swatch Group owns ETA, Omega and some others ETA movements make sense.

Swiss made watch

IIRC Ball does "make" a heavily customized ETA movement for some of its best watches and one mostly in house movement. So far as I know Oris is ETA and other out of house movements only. Breitling makes all (I think) if its movements in house.

________________

So far as $2-5K watches according to what I read those watches sell well in China, Japan and the Middle East and pretty well in Europe. I agree that younger American seem to be less and less interested in watches. My son does not own a legit watch. Of course he borrows from me when he has a big dinner or trip.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Mckinney
975 posts, read 1,006,238 times
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Default Movado Mens Vizio Carbon Fiber 83c51890

Love this watch. This watch ranges from 1600- 2k new. I never buy watches new. This one had been opened then returned. I bought it for 700. This the limit of what i would pay for a watch. The last Movado I wore for 7 years til it looked bad from all the scuffs and nicks.
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what type wrist watch you wear?-movado-mens-vizio-carbon-fiber-83c51890pic.jpg  
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Old 08-11-2018, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Mostly in my head
19,640 posts, read 53,536,771 times
Reputation: 18554
I have an antique ladies watch, Art Deco period, with sapphires and diamonds. I wear it on special occasions or when I am dressed up. My daily watch is a cheap Caravelle b/c it gets hard treatment and can be easily replaced.
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Old 08-11-2018, 02:49 PM
 
Location: northern New England
1,740 posts, read 705,292 times
Reputation: 6811
I gave my (cheap) watch to a friend as I use a Fitbit now.
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Old 08-11-2018, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
26,878 posts, read 28,170,320 times
Reputation: 26003
I have a Shinola Runwell I picked up at Nordstrom Rack. I like the brash American-ness. And it goes well with m more casual lifestyle these days. I used to wear a Movado watch (it sucked) and I have had several other ones with metal bands.

This one they havenít seemed to make again, with the chocolate brown face and gold numbers. I swapped the band to a slimmer aubergine one that was a bit more delicate and suited my wrist better. I get constant compliments. The Shinola employees love it too.
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:21 PM
 
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
13,532 posts, read 11,050,576 times
Reputation: 24042
Rodger Dubuis Symathie Chronograph SYM43
Few Panerai's: Pam 441, 351, 321, 386
Bamford Rolex Submariner
OMEGA Seamaster


The one I get complimented the most is my Perrelet Chronograph Skeleton dual time


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Old 08-11-2018, 04:38 PM
 
Location: NC High Country
3,752 posts, read 6,275,545 times
Reputation: 3601
My favorite watches are ultra-thin ladies' Skagen, several of which I got on eBay. Don't think I've ever spent more than $100 for a watch.

However, all I wear these days is my Fitbit with different color straps, so it's not too boring.
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Old 08-11-2018, 05:28 PM
 
Location: I am right here.
4,860 posts, read 3,718,737 times
Reputation: 15267
Fitbit Charge 2 is what I wear. Gotta account for every single step!
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