[Audacious]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Remember doom and gloom sells newspapers that is why they will print those stories. I understand it is not the best situation at this time but the sky is also not falling.

It doesn't matter what you say Mike, some people just want to believe what they want to believe. "all the news that fits the print" Speaking of which. I read where someone blamed Bush for the housing bubble as well as not being able to get a parking place etc etc.

In the next election the dems will probably take the senate and maybe the White House. If they do I am willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that the economy will have a "miraculous turn around" before they even get sworn in. The media is hawking any negative out there to create doom and gloom where ever and when ever they can, part of their overall election plan. Sadly, more than a few people buy into it.

Once elected the media will start printing how unemployment is soo low, the economy is strong, the foreclosure crisis has passed, it was Bush's fault anyway and how they have reduced the prices of housing from 2005. Now everyone can afford the American dream. There will be a full court press from the media, Kool Aid will rain from heaven and everyone will buy into the mantra.

That is fine with me as well. The RE market will start moving in the second or third quater of 2008 then after the election it will really start cooking into 2009 and beyond. My guess is you will see a 20 to 25% increase in the cost of housing from todays level. That is very good also because the favorable capital gains rates continue until 2010, part of that nasty Bush tax cut.

In 2009 I will sell a bunch of houses for quite a bit more than I paid for them in 2002, in fact in todays market I can sell them for a lot more than what I paid. scarey isn't it? But I will be almost totally out in 2009 because once the dems settle in and the Bush tax cuts expire, they will start raising taxes again, as Pres Reagan once said "well, there ya go again"

The increase in taxes will slow the economy, unemployment will rise and housing will start to decline again. It's been the same story/cycle since Kennedy was elected. Remeber the first thing Kennedy did in office??? He CUT taxes by 50% and the economy took off. Remember what happened when Johnson and Carter were elected. I still remember mortgage rates being over 15% when Carter was in office.

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Originally Posted by Audacious

The increase in taxes will slow the economy, unemployment will rise and housing will start to decline again. It's been the same story/cycle since Kennedy was elected. Remeber the first thing Kennedy did in office??? He CUT taxes by 50% and the economy took off. Remember what happened when Johnson and Carter were elected. I still remember mortgage rates being over 15% when Carter was in office.

With excellent credit, you possibly get a 9.75% rate in 1978, from there it got worse before it got better; in 1980, the prime lending rate hit 21%. I can also remember builders sending bricks and lumber in the mail to DC in protest. For those who remember, the housing market was very bad and a lot of people actually bought with private money mortgages/Land contracts.

[Baja Boomer]

This info is from California, but it is applicable pretty much nationwide-- especially in strong bubble markets like Florida and Nevada:

The Contra Costa Times. “A two-year-old bill is about to come due for the East Bay and the rest of California in the form of job losses triggered by the nose-dive in the housing market, a forecast being released today suggests.

Past experience points to a lag time of two years between a peak in home-building activity and a pronounced slowdown, or even job losses, for industries whose fortunes are linked to the housing market, according to researchers with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

Somewhere around the summer of 2005, building permits in California hit a peak and then began to slump, said Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with UCLA Anderson. ‘Two years later is right now,’ Ratcliff said.
...

‘There are three types of housing markets: abysmal, bottomed-out and booming,” economist Christopher Thornberg said. ‘We’re in abysmal.’ To think we’re going to get through this period with just a slight increase in unemployment is ludicrous,’ he said. ‘We have a situation in our economy which is absolutely unprecedented: rapidly rising rates of foreclosures when the economy is not already in a recession. This will take a toll on the U.S. economy. I don’t see how it cannot.’

Thornberg predicts the housing market won’t stabilize until 2011.

The idea that the Democrats and the media are somehow responsible for this mess, that they are just scaring people, etc. until after the next election is such total nonsense as to be mind boggling in its scope.

The real estate market is already in recession, according to the former head of the NAR-- who just weeks before he quit the job was denying that anything was really wrong. Some of you guys are in a state of denial about the seriousness of the total predicament our economy faces; unfortunately, eventually those rose colored glasses are going to have to come off.

[Dee2e]

CnnMoney's 500 Top Foreclosure zipcodes....surprise, Cleveland, Atlanta, Denver, Detroit, Sacramento, North Las Legas and Chicago are at the top of the list.

North Miami Beach is 19th and the first Florida zip code listed.

Here's the link: 500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by Baja Boomer

This info is from California, but it is applicable pretty much nationwide-- especially in strong bubble markets like Florida and Nevada:



The idea that the Democrats and the media are somehow responsible for this mess, that they are just scaring people, etc. until after the next election is such total nonsense as to be mind boggling in its scope.

The real estate market is already in recession, according to the former head of the NAR-- who just weeks before he quit the job was denying that anything was really wrong. Some of you guys are in a state of denial about the seriousness of the total predicament our economy faces; unfortunately, eventually those rose colored glasses are going to have to come off.

The Contra Costa Times. I hope you are kidding...Right??? I really hope so. Or is there that much Kool Aid out there? Yikes!


The idea that the Democrats and the media are somehow responsible for this mess, that they are just scaring people, etc. until after the next election is such total nonsense as to be mind boggling in its scope.

Not at all, you have misread what I wrote. Typical Liberal. The left wing media, Soros, move on .org , et al. rejoice in ANYTHING that is negative. It is Bushs' fault that your sewer backed up or that you cannot buy a 500K house for 5 dollars and 54 cents.. Reality in fact is totally irrelevent to them, class warfare is what counts it TOTALLY helps the left. BAD capitalist, BAD small business man, just because you create jobs and prosperity is no reason for you to be successful or enjoy the fruits of your labor.

Read the post again without the Kool Aid induced stupor. What I said was that they would take the credit for "turning around" the housing market, that the economy is all of a sudden great etc etc BS and more BS when in reality the MARKET determined the price of housing. Financial markets do not give a damn about politics. Left, right or in between it doesn't matter. The left will say the "market has turned" The only reason to support this is because THEY are in power. Beginning and end of the conversation.

Edit, actually they do, when the dems get in Wall St. gets very nervous

Look back in history. Learn from it or be doomed by it. I am sooo tired of the " govt, help me, I want a 500 K home for 50k and I should not have to work for it because it is too hot down here for me to actually work for a living.
It's not fair that some people have big boats and I only have a kayak"

Give me a break! Sorry for ranting, but this BS is starting to get way TOOO old!


Some of you guys are in a state of denial about the seriousness of the total predicament our economy faces; unfortunately, eventually those rose colored glasses are going to have to come off. .

The seriousness and predictament of our economy is totally, absolutely, FANTASTIC! For those who work hard and strive to attain a better position for themselves and their families, they WILL be rewarded. Both the market and Uncle Sam will help them. EDUCATION and MOTIVATON will bring you great rewards, BOTH are free in the USA. Those who wish and hope for the Govt to provide them a better life...in my book you can p%&s off! Sorry boys and girls but I was attacked for presenting an opinion that did not agree with others....T.S.! The beauty of America is that we can agree to disagree WITHOUT personnal attacks and if the best you can do is attack me personnaly then you have belied the poverty of your position by the poverty of your intellect. For those of you who do not understand, recent graduates of our education system, et al, please PM and I will endeavor to explain further. College grads must be able to write at a 6th grade level or better or I will not respond. Nothing personnal.

The glasses will come off in a nano second as regards the economy when the govt gets the "stones" to start helping those who help themselves and not cater to those who will vote for the politician who promises the most increase in "social programs" aka WELFARE but rather the politician who promotes what is best for America. Unfortunately the unemployed masses make the headlines but those working for a living and paying taxes DO NOT!

How about that bridge to nowhere?? The US Government is going to spend 200 MILLION + to build a bridge to an Island in Alaska with 100 inhabitants. Why not give those inhabitants 500K each and keep the difference? What part of this do I not understand. Oooops, almost forgot, the good senator from Alaska porked in 10 Million dollars to do a study on an interchange in Ft. Meyers. Now why does a senator from Alaska (very cold) have an interest in a project that was NOT requested by the city of Ft. Meyers (very hot) It is plain and simple. Politic payoff, graft and corruption. There is NOTHING else that can explain it.

There are those who wish to work and create and those who are willing to live off the labors of others. I see a common thread here from all who disagree with the founding principles of this country. They seem to want everything without working, earning or achieving it. I believe this is called socialism.

I know I will be crucified for this post but request the indulgence of those who would be the first to shoot.......show me where I'm wrong without spouting the mantra. Basically try to think independly, logically and without personal attacks. I would only request that you give a little credence to what history has taught us all.

If you do not learn from history you are doomed to repeat it!

"just the facts Ma'm"

[DeLaSalle]

Originally Posted by Nirvana-Guy

Wow... staggering. Hey you what I read before I moved out of Fla on the Sentinel was that 40% of the mortgages on 'middle to lower income homes' in FL will go belly up in the next 4 - 8 months because most people bought in FL during the 2004 - 2006 period and got the 2-year "teaser rates" are going to expire pretty soon and these "teaser rates" are now are set to skyrocket.

WHO makes enough $ in FL to pay for a $300,000 mortgage with a rate that went from 4% interest only to 9% - 12% interest and principal?? It's gonna be foreclosure nation in FL and the sad thing is the suffering the people will feel. Foreclosure is a devastating process.... the humiliation, the calls at 3am, the expenses with lawyers and bankrupcy lawyers.... Maybe the feds will come in (Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac) and will subsidize some of these "teaser loans" or something to get people to stay in the 7% or 8% rates and have a slight chance of keeping their homes once the rates jump up?? Maybe that is wishful thinking....

I'd be honest, the LAST thing I would want right now is to own a home in FL, specially a condo. Condos are set for disaster. I am serious.

You guys have not seen anything yet... with the horrible job situation, people trying to leave the state, insurance throught the roof, propertry taxe sthrough the roof, and hurricane season heating up, there is no telling how bad things will get out there in The Sunshine State.

Only Jesus Christ can save you guys. I kid you not, FL is a sinking ship.

Jesus is "Saving" me as I write...I have A Buyer...

[Audacious]

I didn't know that the Almighty was into Real estate. I always thought that He was into helping those who could not help themselves.

This thread is starting to drift more than a few degrees off course.

[lostbuyer]

audacious: "The seriousness and predictament of our economy is totally, absolutely, FANTASTIC!" you need to get a job with a government agency...... people are crying about 500k houses because they used to be 250k 3 years ago...not only because they cant afford them..but you fail to see that,I guess as long as you could afford it ,thats all that matters......who cares about the other 98% of america....oh and before you tell me to work if i want to be able to afford it,I actually can,but i dont like being financially raped,so ill wait this one out...as far as deserving the money I dont think anyone deserves 100grand for buying a house in may and selling it in june....its unfair for people really trying to buy a home,and not trying to get rich overnight....but its not just the flippers fault,its also,the loans that were being handed out,the NARs cheerleaders working overtime ect...you say real estate only goes up.....so how much would you say real estate is gonna go up in say two years?......im interested in your answer...and if it does keep going up dont you see that as a problem for most of the popullation?

[macguy]

Originally Posted by Audacious

It doesn't matter what you say Mike, some people just want to believe what they want to believe. "all the news that fits the print" Speaking of which. I read where someone blamed Bush for the housing bubble as well as not being able to get a parking place etc etc.

In the next election the dems will probably take the senate and maybe the White House. If they do I am willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that the economy will have a "miraculous turn around" before they even get sworn in. The media is hawking any negative out there to create doom and gloom where ever and when ever they can, part of their overall election plan. Sadly, more than a few people buy into it.

Once elected the media will start printing how unemployment is soo low, the economy is strong, the foreclosure crisis has passed, it was Bush's fault anyway and how they have reduced the prices of housing from 2005. Now everyone can afford the American dream. There will be a full court press from the media, Kool Aid will rain from heaven and everyone will buy into the mantra.

That is fine with me as well. The RE market will start moving in the second or third quater of 2008 then after the election it will really start cooking into 2009 and beyond. My guess is you will see a 20 to 25% increase in the cost of housing from todays level. That is very good also because the favorable capital gains rates continue until 2010, part of that nasty Bush tax cut.

In 2009 I will sell a bunch of houses for quite a bit more than I paid for them in 2002, in fact in todays market I can sell them for a lot more than what I paid. scarey isn't it? But I will be almost totally out in 2009 because once the dems settle in and the Bush tax cuts expire, they will start raising taxes again, as Pres Reagan once said "well, there ya go again"

The increase in taxes will slow the economy, unemployment will rise and housing will start to decline again. It's been the same story/cycle since Kennedy was elected. Remeber the first thing Kennedy did in office??? He CUT taxes by 50% and the economy took off. Remember what happened when Johnson and Carter were elected. I still remember mortgage rates being over 15% when Carter was in office.

Just out of curiosity, why didn't you dump off those houses when prices were at their peak? I doubt 2009 will see prices like that again, not even close. I sold off property when it was at the peak, I kept a few lots a little too long but still made myself a load of dough.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by macguy

Just out of curiosity, why didn't you dump off those houses when prices were at their peak? I doubt 2009 will see prices like that again, not even close. I sold off property when it was at the peak, I kept a few lots a little too long but still made myself a load of dough.

They all provide positive cash and good tax advantages. I still look at RE as a long term investment.