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Old 08-09-2010, 12:24 AM
 
1,500 posts, read 3,313,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHASLS2 View Post
No point in flipping homes that coming down in price more and more.
Because, surprise! Seems there's a number of these in south Tampa still.

For instance, this house

3812 S Lynwood Ave, Tampa, FL 33611 - Zillow

sold as a foreclosure in 2009 for $150k and then flipped this year for $304,200. Maybe they put in some granite. What a joke. As you can see here...

HCPAFL.org - PROPERTY: [ KENYON JEFFREY T ] FOLIO: 128431-0000

it sold in 1999 for $118k, so by CPI the current value should be $154,500 had the neighborhood remained of same character, perhaps more had the character of the area improved during that time. Even zillow thinks it maxed at $400k during the bubble so it just sold only about 25% down from that, indicating further price declines on that home very possible. Also, the county has it appraised at just $178k. Say that's 20% low to be generous. So maybe this place is worth $213k? So another 30% drop in price when this guy tries to sell wouldn't be unexpected.

Is the current owner worried? Did he not notice the price doubled in 9 months. Lets see how much of an equity stake he's got in it...

Verified Through Thursday, Jul 29, 2010. LAST Verified Instrument = 2010256102

Almost the entire thing is mortgaged with a $299,081 FHA loan, guaranteed by we the public. The "owner" has all of $5000 or 1.6% in the game and who knows if he got the seller to pay that back at closing.

This flip four years after the crash. They call this recovery.
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Old 08-09-2010, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Lincoln County Road or Armageddon
4,972 posts, read 7,158,907 times
Reputation: 7224
That's a lot of granite. Or maybe he just really, really liked the place. More probable, he's doing a balancing act between what's legal and illegal, what's ethical and unethical. I've got a feeling that nothing will be learned from the market crash and things will be allowed to repeat themselves over and over, with a few making tons of money and many more getting screwed.
I swear, when I leave here in a few years, I'll never own another home-I'll put my money in something that makes sense like comic books or antique rugs.
On a side note-anyone read the article about Senate candidate Jeff Greene's real estate dealings? Pretty good example of what's wrong with real estate. I don't know why this is allowed to go on.

Calif. deal put Jeff Greene on front line of mortgage mess - St. Petersburg Times
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Old 08-09-2010, 11:26 AM
 
1,500 posts, read 3,313,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vaughnwilliams View Post
I swear, when I leave here in a few years, I'll never own another home-I'll put my money in something that makes sense like comic books or antique rugs.
Frustration understood. But as fun & adventurous as it might be, you can not live in a comic book and who wants to live in a rug. Nor can one live in a CD or in a safe deposit box (zoning won't allow it) or inside of a portfolio of stocks and bonds.

Since you have to live somewhere, if you are not a cave dweller, a house not only provides an investment that you can live in but that you can even get to pay you while you live there (renting out a room, for instance or buying a duplex or buying in a redevelopment area, or buying at a market low).

Of course any investment can lose money. Life is a gamble. But outside of having bought at the height of what was probably the biggest bubble in history which will more than likely never repeat in a generation or more, a house, bought carefully, is still not only your safest bet, but given how much has already been deflated, maybe even a good bet going forward.

Maybe not such a good bet for the guy who just overpaid for that south Tampa home in the above example, making the annual appreciation from 1999 to date 8.99% or about five and a half points over inflation during that time and in a period that we now know to be the biggest crash of home prices since the last Great Depression when housing is reverting back to its mean. There might not be a lot of upside on the next sale for him.

But for someone who just bought a house at a CPI-adjusted price 5% lower than where it sold 30plus years ago, which had an annual appreciation of only 3.79% during all that time, that just had all the excess equity depressed out of it, there's a better chance this person will to do well on the next sale.

Also there is the case of rent v own, and an good case to own now considering todays financing costs and tax structures. A fixed mortgage (or a house owned free & clear) fixes costs while rents, not so much, as over time they are more likely to rise.

Here is a rent v own calculator Renting vs. Buying a Home: Which is better?

and here is another
Is It Better to Buy or Rent? - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com
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Old 08-10-2010, 06:17 AM
 
Location: Tampa Bay`·.¸¸ ><((((º>.·´¯`·><((((º>
4,696 posts, read 7,856,002 times
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Comic books or antique rugs?? HA! (smiling, smiling :-))
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Old 08-10-2010, 11:02 AM
 
245 posts, read 498,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor View Post
lolol flippers.

Seems they've lost their funding.

I think some of this stuff is pretty rock bottom and that mostly what will be coming down will be the asking prices, maybe not so much the sold-for prices as I can't imagine anyone buying today paying much of a premium.

The figures often quoted that we are only 30-40% down is nonsense. I think the stuff actually selling is now 50-60% or more off peak prices. I realize Japan dropped as much as 80% in some areas but I don't know how much lower metro Tampa can go if you buy for less than a new build would cost plus you're getting the land and infrastructure for free.

Oh, yeah, you can actually live in your house entirely for free now if you scam the system just right. Probably history will not remember this moment as this country's proudest.
Taylor Morrison is selling homes for about $65 a sq ft at their College Park development in Ruskin.

How on earth can they be building for $65 a sq ft. for a 2000 sq ft house selling for $127,000? Or a 1300 sq ft house for just over $100,000? (Had been $99,900 a few months ago). Hard to knock 50% off just by cheapening up the materials.

Morrison back at the peak was getting about double that (around $125 per sq ft).
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Old 08-10-2010, 12:55 PM
 
1,500 posts, read 3,313,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeorgeJ. View Post
Taylor Morrison is selling homes for about $65 a sq ft at their College Park development in Ruskin.

How on earth can they be building for $65 a sq ft. for a 2000 sq ft house selling for $127,000? Or a 1300 sq ft house for just over $100,000? (Had been $99,900 a few months ago). Hard to knock 50% off just by cheapening up the materials.

Morrison back at the peak was getting about double that (around $125 per sq ft).
Developers have unloaded units below cost since the crash. Sometimes you have to know when to cut your losses. Some of that goes to a tax write-off and some of that is used as a promotion to sell higher priced stuff. Eventually even that supply & hoax dries up and then, if they've any smarts, they simply won't build up so much inventory that would force them to make such opportunity available again.

Even still, the one you mentioned

New Homes in Tampa, College Chase, New Tampa Homes for Sale from Taylor Morrison

shows two available for sale by builder, a 1955 sq ft 4/2.5 for 157,775 or $80.70/sq ft and a 1588 sq ft 3/2 for $152,359 or $95.94/sq ft. So if they had one for $65/sq ft, I don't see it listed. Realize also that larger homes generally get less per sq ft compared to the guy next door, because the one next to the other paid about the same for the land and infrastructure (water, sewer, etc). Also, once you've incorporated a kitchen and baths to each house, most of the extra square footage is just pretty much hollow space with a little wiring and a few $200 windows in it. So relative cost to size, you can build larger cheaper.

http://www.realtor.com/soldhomeprices/Ruskin_FL/33570/908-Windton-Oak-Dr#/lat-27.71155734615005/lng--82.42239899999998/zl-15

shows most of the homes in that development selling from the low 120s to the low 130s, so the promotion might not be such a deal. The lots are pretty tiny, about 5,000 sq ft each and most of the houses are about 12-1400 sq ft. Being where it is the land cost was probably minimal and since the development is so compact, infrastructure costs were limited as well.

I don't know why anyone would live in the country, only to live ontop of their neighbor. Seems contradictory to me but that is a lifestyle choice.

Here's one of the latest sales there:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail-alt/722-College-Chase-Drive_Ruskin_FL_33570_M51707-57200 , a 1,268-sq ft 3/2 which sold for $121,215 on June 30th of this year.

That's $95.59/sq ft on a house that will only depreciate (generally, houses depreciate, thus, maintenance costs, while land appreciates) on land that will, at best, appreciate very slowly due to its location. And since it is surrounded by so much buildable land, it might not appreciate at all for years to come because why would someone pay the selling price of used when they can buy new for about the same in that same area. So I am not convinced as to whether the builder is offering such a deal. Someone else might like it, of course.
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Old 08-12-2010, 03:42 AM
 
792 posts, read 2,281,628 times
Reputation: 822
People just need to use common sense here.

Housing prices will fall till people are able to afford them.

That means the wages that most people earn have to be enough to afford a home.

Now i'm not talking about expensive beach property, just working class homes for working class people.

I still think most homes are overprices, based on what most people earn.

The big fly in the ointment here is unemployment. No jobs, no recovery for housing....ever.
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Old 08-12-2010, 11:19 AM
 
1,500 posts, read 3,313,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor View Post
Quotes here from following article: "the state of Florida has licensed over 10,000 convicted felons as mortgage brokers."


photo credit: Benzinga

Real Estate: Charting A New Course, Part 1 | Benzinga.com

Real Estate: Charting A New Course, Part 2 | Benzinga.com

Real Estate: Charting A New Course, Part 3 (O, RWR, IYR) | Benzinga.com

"Analysts are saying that it will take until 2033 for prices to be back where they should be in [Tampa, Florida].”

Just in time for me to do a reverse mortgage. Not a problem.

Unclear why this thread was moved out of the Tampa forum since the article quoted Tampa as being 23 years away from normalcy, not all of Florida.
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Old 08-12-2010, 11:39 PM
 
Location: Orlando Suburbs
228 posts, read 533,560 times
Reputation: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpeteguy View Post
People just need to use common sense here.

Housing prices will fall till people are able to afford them.

That means the wages that most people earn have to be enough to afford a home.

Now i'm not talking about expensive beach property, just working class homes for working class people.

I still think most homes are overprices, based on what most people earn.

The big fly in the ointment here is unemployment. No jobs, no recovery for housing....ever.
Exactly!! And when they think they can afford them they will be lucky if they are approved for financing.

IMO, once the apartment occupancy rates start going back up (above 93%), next the rents will rise, then the idea of home ownership will start to climb, at least for the lower and middle class.
Who knows how long all this will take......
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Old 08-13-2010, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Tampa Bay`·.¸¸ ><((((º>.·´¯`·><((((º>
4,696 posts, read 7,856,002 times
Reputation: 13657
"Unclear why this thread was moved out of the Tampa forum since the article quoted Tampa as being 23 years away from normalcy, not all of Florida."

I agree with this Housingcrash. This is specifically about the Tampa area. Ican't understand why it was moved to another forum.
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