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View Poll Results: How much do you think the AVG florida home price will drop?
It Wont 3 5.00%
10% or less 6 10.00%
20% or less 19 31.67%
30% or less 12 20.00%
40% or less 1 1.67%
50% or less 9 15.00%
51% or more 6 10.00%
Dunno 4 6.67%
Voters: 60. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-27-2007, 08:21 PM
 
2,313 posts, read 3,189,308 times
Reputation: 471

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LingLing View Post
If price will drop 50%-70% from the current market value, I will buy!!!
It will work like any market, prices will drop till people begin to buy then a buying frenzy will start because people will be afraid they will miss the bargains. It won't be that different then when it got crazy before, other then the the prices will have reset lower. They then will begin to climb again.

 
Old 08-27-2007, 08:22 PM
 
458 posts, read 598,376 times
Reputation: 136
My range was from 20-70%, not 50-70%. From the peak of the market, adjusted for inflation.

The 70% applies to extreme cases, such as Naples. At the peak, Naples was an estimated 72% over priced. According to CNN/Money Mag:

Naples FL $419.9 $244.0 72% Overpriced
Deltona-Daytona Beach FL $216.8 $168.0 29% Overpriced
Jacksonville FL $228.7 $190.7 20% Overpriced
Miami-West Palm Beach FL $298.7 $194.6 54% Overpriced
Palm Bay-Melbourne FL $249.4 $179.1 39% Overpriced
Panama City FL $294.4 $211.1 39% Overpriced
Pensacola FL $217.7 $175.4 24% Overpriced

Add in inflation, which is 3-5% a year, depending on who you believe.

6-10% haircut for inflation over the next 2 years...added to the above % overpriced...you can come up with some pretty scary numbers.
 
Old 08-27-2007, 08:26 PM
 
458 posts, read 598,376 times
Reputation: 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by macguy View Post
It will work like any market, prices will drop till people begin to buy then a buying frenzy will start because people will be afraid they will miss the bargains. It won't be that different then when it got crazy before, other then the the prices will have reset lower. They then will begin to climb again.
I don't think past experience is going to repeat itself.

You have many historical numbers with this bubble. Record government debt, record levels of personal debt, Florida property taxes, insurance, record housing price increase, historically easy credit that will never be seen again.

This Florida situation is one for the record books. The correction will also be one for the record books.
 
Old 08-27-2007, 10:34 PM
 
776 posts, read 1,672,172 times
Reputation: 454
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimKing View Post
I don't think past experience is going to repeat itself.

You have many historical numbers with this bubble. Record government debt, record levels of personal debt, Florida property taxes, insurance, record housing price increase, historically easy credit that will never be seen again.

This Florida situation is one for the record books. The correction will also be one for the record books.
You've got homes in SW Florida in MLS now listed at back to 2002 prices.. More than 50% drop from the top. Too much overbuilding, too many speculators without end users to sell or rent to..now the job market magnifying the problem on the demand side. Tight credit and ARM resets additional wildcards now just entering the equation. A crazy period the past four years has been. Hoping for some stability within 18 months. Watch the dollar, watch gold, watch rental rates, watch NY real estate for clues because we might do a 'V' bottom in 2009 in the worst hit parts of FL
 
Old 08-27-2007, 11:38 PM
 
Location: Titusville, Florida
3 posts, read 13,839 times
Reputation: 12
What a stupid suggestion - 70% drop in prices of single family homes! Prices will not drop below replacement cost unless there are no buyers and I don't care what people say about taxes and insurance problems in FLorida - it is still much cheaper than most of the northeast and it snows there!

Yes, prices are down 15 - 20% off the peak and maybe there is more room for continued drops, but there are already "treasure hunters" buying and getting great deals. Now it is time to buy if you want to enjoy your property whether it is a home or an investment property. Buy because you love the location and home or buy because it is a good investment and pays you more than a CD or other less risky investment.

Read Harry Dent Jr's The Bubble Boom if you want to understand this market and any other. It is based on the baby boomers and their buying habits and needs at different ages - great insights.

Unless we have a major disease that kills off lots of us baby boomers, we will continue to drive the market for cars, homes, vacations, health care, etc. Retirees and semi-retirees will move to warmer climate and near the coast. Anyone that can afford a view, will pay for it. I live on the Indian River and can't imagine not looking out on the water - as long as I can afford it.
 
Old 08-28-2007, 03:50 AM
 
944 posts, read 3,846,831 times
Reputation: 607
You can keep debating whether or not 50% is realistic, or you can watch this video where it has already happened. $315K last December, most recent sale: $145K.


YouTube - FLORIDA HOUSING CRASH 50% OFF
 
Old 08-28-2007, 04:49 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,489 posts, read 20,631,470 times
Reputation: 5397
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggy View Post
You can keep debating whether or not 50% is realistic, or you can watch this video where it has already happened. $315K last December, most recent sale: $145K.


YouTube - FLORIDA HOUSING CRASH 50% OFF
Or we could use the actual most recent sale on 8/8/2007 of $279,000 but that might require using factual data. Or another on 8/1 of $200,000.
 
Old 08-28-2007, 05:39 AM
 
458 posts, read 598,376 times
Reputation: 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by tvillegirl View Post
What a stupid suggestion - 70% drop in prices of single family homes! Prices will not drop below replacement cost unless there are no buyers and I don't care what people say about taxes and insurance problems in FLorida - it is still much cheaper than most of the northeast and it snows there!

Yes, prices are down 15 - 20% off the peak and maybe there is more room for continued drops, but there are already "treasure hunters" buying and getting great deals. Now it is time to buy if you want to enjoy your property whether it is a home or an investment property. Buy because you love the location and home or buy because it is a good investment and pays you more than a CD or other less risky investment.

Read Harry Dent Jr's The Bubble Boom if you want to understand this market and any other. It is based on the baby boomers and their buying habits and needs at different ages - great insights.

Unless we have a major disease that kills off lots of us baby boomers, we will continue to drive the market for cars, homes, vacations, health care, etc. Retirees and semi-retirees will move to warmer climate and near the coast. Anyone that can afford a view, will pay for it. I live on the Indian River and can't imagine not looking out on the water - as long as I can afford it.
1. These 'stupid suggestions' come from Money magazine/CNN and Moodys Economic research.

2. A CD currently pays about 5%. Starting with 2006, please call us when the majority of Florida housing appreciates 5% a year after carrying costs.

3. Houses are supposed to be places to live, not investments. Houses are depreciating assets, that can drop in value. CDs are not. The only house that is an investment is one that has positive cash flow.

4. Study after study shows that most baby boomers have very little savings. Baby boomers will retire to inexpensive places, and buy small inexpensive homes. They will not buy the 3-4-5 bedroom homes glutting the Florida market today. The baby boomer deal is a 100% myth that has been exposed many times over. Most boomers will continue to work well past 65, and they won't be working in FL.

Less expensive places like the Carolinas, lake country Texas and others have already become the retirement destinations of choice for many boomers.

5. Taxes of $8,000/year and insurance of $2000 on a typical $350,000-400,000 house does matter.

6. Houses will revert to 3 times income, always have, always will. My range was 20-70% 70% applies to houses that were priced ridiculously high at their peak, not to the majority of FL real estate.

7. That Bubble Boom book is outdated thinking and nonsense. Read The Housing Bubble blog and all its thousands of links to real news and numbers.

Harry Dent has been exposed as a fraud many times. Dow 40000? How is that working out??? His book is worthless. You can google him and find many sites exposing his frauds.

Stupid Economist Tricks

8. Florida should be cheaper than the NE, pay is much higher in the NE. Florida has always been a cheap place to live, except for the very top real estate. and it will return to being cheap again.

Last edited by JimKing; 08-28-2007 at 05:58 AM..
 
Old 08-28-2007, 06:09 AM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
277 posts, read 373,476 times
Reputation: 35
A better question would be is how much Florida housing has dropped presently.
 
Old 08-28-2007, 07:01 AM
 
1,257 posts, read 4,574,267 times
Reputation: 1034
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimKing View Post
I don't think past experience is going to repeat itself.

You have many historical numbers with this bubble. Record government debt, record levels of personal debt, Florida property taxes, insurance, record housing price increase, historically easy credit that will never be seen again.

This Florida situation is one for the record books. The correction will also be one for the record books.
People have short memory when it comes to make money. Remember not long ago, there was an internet bubble. In Shanghai, some properties were just sold around $1000/ sf while American housing bubble was constantly reported in their news. It was obvious in 2005, the market was overheated. Belive or not, everyone knew that at that time. Everyone said "this is not normal" Yet, there are still a lot of people bought at that market.

History does repeat itself in different forms, thus each time set a record.
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