[backtofla]

does that mean we, as homeowners should be trying to sell??? i mean, if it's doom and gloom for the next 10 yrs, and since we live in florida, where many ppl move in and out of the state within 5 yrs anyway, shouldnt we be selling??? especially if you are trying to sell in the next 2-3 yrs anyway???

[tallrick]

Depends on where you will move to. I tend to believe that falling prices are a good thing, you get less from your sale, but the home you buy costs less as well. All in all the less money that exchanges hands the better the tax situation.

[JimKing]

There is no easy answer for anybody who 'has' to sell over the next few years. It is ugly and will get much, much worse. There is only one answer, cut the price until you start getting offers within 10% of your asking price. It is undeniable, much of Florida is on the edge of a very steep residential real estate crash. And as Tallrick said, in the long run low housing prices are better.

Here are a few more examples for those that doubt 50-70% haircuts off peak pricing won't eventually happen in some areas:

30,000-plus properties on the market in Palm Beach County.

“It is a very bleak market out there for sellers,” says Peter Just, a Keller Williams agent in Lake Worth. He points to a couple of examples of sellers in his neighborhood drastically scaling back their expectations:

After being listed as high as $750,000, 534 S. Palmway just sold for $436,050.

After being listed as high as $799,900, 1610 S. Palmway recently sold for $450,000.

Then there’s the house at 304 Columbia Drive in Lake Worth. The owner paid $360,000 for it in 2004. Now it’s on the market for $337,000.

[Dave_n_Tenn]

backtofla said:does that mean we, as homeowners should be trying to sell??? i mean, if it's doom and gloom for the next 10 yrs, and since we live in florida, where many ppl move in and out of the state within 5 yrs anyway, shouldnt we be selling??? especially if you are trying to sell in the next 2-3 yrs anyway???

I don't think 10 yrs... but the next 2 or 3, I would agree.


Buy low, sell high... Easy to say... hard to do... and still applies to "real property".

It seems reasonable that prices will continue to fall. Not enough buyers and too much inventory. Supply and demand. How far for prices? nobody knows.

Those that are in the market for a "home" ( not a house)... meaning they have done their homework, and are "ready" to settle in without looking for a windfall, this is a good time... any there are as many varied opinions as houses. There are good deals... deals that represent value.

Value is within the context of a individual's situation in the housing market. If your job has relocated to Fla, or you have picked an area your comfortable with, and have done your due diligence, then this is a great buyers market.

If you have to sell... then sell now if you can. Why wait? when all predictors point towards a continued downward market. ... but again, advise should be filtered through each persons situation.

[jbcorbin]

I may be living in a dream world, but really don’t think the Florida market will be down long. There are still plenty of people who have planned for years to retire in Florida. And there are plenty that will want to move here to work. There are still jobs. I see neighbors every day that moved here and work virtual office. They can live where they want. I do the same. And believe it or not, many of the folks here are natives (someone has to be).
The insurance stuff will calm & taxes are always here. I really don’t think most people would pick Iowa over Florida. They will come.
We bought a new house here last fall that was built three years ago. They were stuck with it and jumped at our offer. We often wonder if we could have waited even longer. What I don’t know is when the prices will be the lowest, so I can tell my Northern neighbors to head down with their checkbooks. Is there some place that can be used to figure when the lowest prices are without tons of research every day? Or, I guess, when the market is headed up? Any thoughts?

[nytoflorida]

It's difficult to buy or sell right now. It's true that sellers have it worse, but buyers are worried that they may be overpaying in a market that will continue to take a nose dive. And there's also the worry that the country may go into a recession, and who knows what kind of repurcussions will be felt from that, making it a bad time to own a second home, or to be a new homeowner.

My parents and I are having misgivings about a house that we want to buy right now. The seller is asking 189, and we want to pay more like 160, but the seller bought it last Nov. for 165, and put a lot into it. So for them to even break even they would have to get 179. I'm thinking if we wait awhile we can get them to be realistic and take a loss if they really want to get out. You see, we're buying for the long term, not looking to make a profit in a few years. We'll own it for at least 10 years if not longer. So we don't want to overpay in a bad market where potentially better deals can be had, but we would rather buy this house than any of the others we've seen. Tough decision.

[tallrick]

Please explain to me how anyone can think that home prices can remain above 3X income? The reality is that homes will sell for what people can pay, period! How can a retiree on a fixed income justify paying 300,000 for a small home and pay 10,000 per year for taxes and insurance, even if they sell their California or New Jersey bubble home and pay cash? You are prohibited by law from ever owning a property outright, once you start leasing from the Government you never get a reduction, regardless of how broke you are. Unless Florida scraps residential property tax, values will continue to fall.

[Dave_n_Tenn]

There is NEVER gonna be a perfect time. We all can get trapped in paralysis by analysis. Kinda like getting married... nervous as heck, but it's the commitment that gets us there, not how we feel. What we "feel" today will be different tomorrow.

[JimKing]

Originally Posted by jbcorbin

I may be living in a dream world, but really don’t think the Florida market will be down long. There are still plenty of people who have planned for years to retire in Florida. And there are plenty that will want to move here to work. There are still jobs. I see neighbors every day that moved here and work virtual office. They can live where they want. I do the same. And believe it or not, many of the folks here are natives (someone has to be).
The insurance stuff will calm & taxes are always here. I really don’t think most people would pick Iowa over Florida. They will come.
We bought a new house here last fall that was built three years ago. They were stuck with it and jumped at our offer. We often wonder if we could have waited even longer. What I don’t know is when the prices will be the lowest, so I can tell my Northern neighbors to head down with their checkbooks. Is there some place that can be used to figure when the lowest prices are without tons of research every day? Or, I guess, when the market is headed up? Any thoughts?

Well I suggest you do further research. Go to any housing bubble blog and look at the threads about Florida. The links will give you lots of information as to why Florida has not even begun to crash.

People from Iowa or where ever will be looking for houses at 3 times income. That will work out to $120,000-250,000 for the vast majority of people.

Now what shall we do with all these $250,000-700,000 houses that are flooding the market? How about the fact the major insurance companies say Florida is 10% of their premiums and 40% of their exposure....huge increases will come eventually.

Most people have hardly any retirement savings. If they sell a $200,000 house in Iowa, they will most likely want to spend less than that in Florida. Many people become half backs, to be closer to family, to take care of aging parents.

How about property taxes? If they are paying $2000 in Iowa, what will they do when they realize they will be paying $5000 in Florida? Florida grandfathers existing owners and puts a huge burden on new buyers.

How about the new lending standards? The cheap credit that created this mess is gone. How much will houses have to tumble to fit the model of 15-20% down and 3 times income?

[JimKing]

Originally Posted by Dave_n_Tenn

There is NEVER gonna be a perfect time. We all can get trapped in paralysis by analysis. Kinda like getting married... nervous as heck, but it's the commitment that gets us there, not how we feel. What we "feel" today will be different tomorrow.

I don't get the analogy. Getting married is an affair of the heart. And 60% of first marriages end in divorce. What does any of that have to do with the Florida real estate bubble?

People have access to tons and tons of resources to educate themselves on housing bubbles and Florida real estate. People who have to sell can do only one thing, set the price right.

People who want to buy have the option of cheap rentals all over while they low ball offer all over the place.

If more buyers had been paralyzed by analysis over the last 3 years we would have a lot less foreclosures and people at the end of their ropes.