[Dee2e]

Originally Posted by riveree

Thanks Dee . I think all the counties have the Super Exemption calculators on their sites now. Duval does and I've already checked it out and played with the numbers, it's the very reason I starting thinking this new amendment would not work for me .

You're welcome!

[riveree]

Originally Posted by Dee74

Riveree, you misunderstood that she would have SOH now and the super exemption if she LATER decided to move. Gets crazy doesn't it!

I know, but did that woman truly realize that, or was it just the reporter who summarized it that way?

Meaning, the reporter understand that she would have only Super Exemption if she moved later, but the woman might not - it's sort of open-ended as to what she truly believes (she might indeed think she'll be able to choose between SOH or Super later.....we don't really know from the way it is written ).

The verbage - even in the article - is going to lead to people voting for something they truly don't understand:

"Best of both worlds", "Voting to have an option", "Super Exemption in her hip pocket in case"

There will be people who will vote "yes" for the amendment and then years down the road they'll move to another home and ONLY THEN fully realize what they voted for .

[riveree]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

Hmmmm. Vellly interesting!

“Enrollment in Volusia public schools is down about 1,100 students from a year ago, meaning some teachers could lose their jobs and others will have to switch schools.”

“This is the first time Volusia school enrollment has declined in 25 years. Volusia officials don’t know why enrollment declined, but Superintendent Margaret Smith said they’ve heard some parents are moving away because of the slumping economy.”

“‘We’ve had some parents report to us they’re involved in mortgage foreclosures,’ she said, also pointing to some state reports indicating more people are moving out of Florida these days than coming in, especially if they work construction jobs.

Not here Wacahootaman - we're building schools. We have so many people moving to the area with children that the schools in the three county region (Duval/St. Johns/Clay) can't keep up - the schools are overcrowded and we're building more.

The same for you comment above this one - real estate prices are not falling equally throughout all of Florida. For the most part, we are faring pretty well here and we'll probably be back on an upswing soon enough. To get back on track with "normal" appreciation of 5% per year looks very likely here. Our demographics are completely different here - hardly any snowbirds, young city, lower cost of living, etc. Maybe that's why I'm more concerned than some other about the loss of the cap, I think it will hurt us here in NEFL .

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by riveree

Not here Wacahootaman - we're building schools. We have so many people moving to the area with children that the schools in the three county region (Duval/St. Johns/Clay) can't keep up - the schools are overcrowded and we're building more.

The same for you comment above this one - real estate prices are not falling equally throughout all of Florida. For the most part, we are faring pretty well here and we'll probably be back on an upswing soon enough. To get back on track with "normal" appreciation of 5% per year looks very likely here. Our demographics are completely different here - hardly any snowbirds, young city, lower cost of living, etc. Maybe that's why I'm more concerned than some other about the loss of the cap, I think it will hurt us here in NEFL .

Riveree, everything you said about your area in NEFL goes the same for us here in Lakeland and Polk County. Our county has a BOOMING school enrollment and a budget of over a billion $$$ to build more schools. Plus, all the teachers got a nice raise, and they need more of them. This is a very young area, few snowbirds, etc. - everything that applies to your area. I totally agree that there are a lot of areas of Florida which are faring quite well even in the real estate slowdown. In fact, this town was named by Money magazine last year as the fourth best city in America to invest, due to the expected appreciation of our undervalued real estate over the next five years. These reasons are also the reason I tend to agree with you about the SOH and tax exemption. I am not sure how long we will stay in this particular home which we just purchased, but we have a feeling it won't be our final home. I'm just not sure about the whole situation yet.

[wacahootaman]

riveree,

While Jacksonville is in much better shape in its real estate market than say, Cape Coral or Sarasota, it will take a beating by historical standards, and property values will probably stay way below the trend line of 5 percent for many years until the excess inventory is wrung out.

Check this out:

HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Jacksonville, Florida

This shows the inventory of listings in the greater Jax area was at only 5,600 in 2005 as up to 23,500 recently. So the inventory has gone up 4 times since 2005 and that doesn't reflect For Sale By Owners or discouraged sellers who have pulled their listings off the market.

Prices have fallen from peak to valley almost 20 percent in the high end market and even in the lower end up to 15 percent.

The good news is that prices and inventory have turned around in the last month. Hopefully it is a trend not a blip but I bet prices will fall a lot more and inventory will grow again when discouraged sellers detect this new optimism and put their homes back on the market. Plus forclosures wont peak until mid 2008.

The bottom line is that his will be a prolonged downturn in real estate prices. This last real estate bubble was the biggest in US history. And the bust will be the longest in history too.

I agree, that Jax will fare better than most markets in Fla but if you can find the data for the last downturn that started in 1990, prices in Jax stayed below the trendline for almost 10 years after that one.

If a trendline of 5 percent reflects the bubble years price appreciation up until now,it is really distorted and future price appreciation will not average near that.

I bet prices in the next ten years will average less than the 3 percent that you are automatically charged under the Save our Homes program.

Betting on 5 percent average appreciation is a poor bet even in Jax.

That being said if you have waterfront, or are in a super hot area, it may be different.

[wacahootaman]

Jacksonville's worst real estate down turn before this one happened in the early 80 when interest rates soard to 15 percent. Both the 80s and 90s slumps were based on hard recessions. Todays downturn is based on a bloated inventory and lack of affordability. It will become much much worse if we fall into recession.

But a hard recession is looming.

This article from newsweek:

The decline in housing construction and sales has had an immediate economic impact. From the perspective of job creation, real estate was the best sector in which to have a boom, providing jobs at every rung of the ladder: real-estate agents and mortgage brokers, architects and lawyers, investment bankers and decorators, movers and painters, contractors and landscapers. Between November 2001 and April 2005, housing and housing-related industries created 788,300 jobs, or 40 percent of the total created in the United States, according to Asha Bangalore, an economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. The demand for mortgage brokers in Las Vegas was so strong that "every stripper, waiter and bartender on the Strip had a broker's license," says Boyd Nyborg, a former mortgage broker who now tends bar at the Tao Las Vegas.

But since August 2006, employment in housing-related industries has declined 119,400, according to Bangalore. Last month brought a rash of job cuts: 1,600 at Accredited Home Lenders, a subprime-mortgage company based in San Diego; 1,900 at Capital One Financial's GreenPoint Mortgage unit; 6,000 at Tucson, Ariz.-based subprime lender First Magnus. Many real-estate professionals who work on commission have seen their pay plummet. Mike McNamara, a broker at Windermere Coeur d'Alene Realty in the Idaho resort town, says sales in the area have fallen by half since the summer of 2005. "My sales are down 30 percent from last year," he says. "There are about 1,500 agents in this market and approximately 300 are making a living." Harry Heyward, who has been appraising homes in Tampa, Fla., for almost 20 years, says he's doing about five appraisals per week—down from 10 to 15 at the height of the boom. "I keep thinking it's going to get better, and it never does."

The collateral damage is spreading. Because home sales and moves stimulate purchases of appliances, electronics and furniture, the giant chains that catered to house flippers and renovators have reported recessionlike results. In the second quarter, same-store sales were down 5.2 percent at Home Depot and 4.3 percent at Sears.

More here:

The New Money Pit: Housing Bust Gets Worse - Newsweek Business - MSNBC.com

Betting on a 5 percent appreciation trend line in real estate to determine your future property taxes is a pipe dream. Try 1 percent.

You will pay more property taxes under the Save our Homes three percent the next 10 years than with taxes pegged to true market value of your home.

riveree, punch in a 1 percent trend line into your tax calculations and see where the SOH gets you.

[wacahootaman]

Here is the chart for future property taxes on a 200k home under the Super and SOH with 1 percent appreciation over 20 years.



The Save our Homes only beats the Super in future property taxes if the future trend line over time averages above 3 percent.

It aint gonna happen folks.

The county caculators posted on all the tax assessor site are based on bogus projected trend lines.

[Jareb]

Originally Posted by kevinbonds

You my friend are a the definition of "selfish". Just because you purchased your home 17 years ago does not mean that you should pay less taxes then someone who bought last week. You should not have one person on a street pay $2,000 in taxes while the guy across the street pays two to three times that. When you bought your house should not have a bearing on your taxes. More importantly all these people whom have been living in their houses 15-20years should pretty much have their houses paid off. Prices were so much less expensive and taxes have been so low over the past decades for these people they should be the ones who can afford to pay the higher taxes since there mortgage payment should be $0 or close to it. Yet a young couple wants to buy a house and on top of their mortgage have to pay an extra $500 plus per month. Just a bunch of ill informed people. You dont loss the your soh unless you move. So why not vote for it so that your neighbors can have some relieve. You say your house is worth 600K well not anymore and certianly not when people stop moving to florida because the high taxes and insurance. Wise up!

No Kevin-anyone who knows me would not label me selfish. Confused as to the best path to follow on this vote-yes. Conservative about changing something that has worked for me for so long-yes. I'll look at this bill again as the vote approaches and perhaps change my mind. All real estate is "local" and yes my house is still worth what I stated. Several multi-million dollar residences being built all around me at this time. I'm by no means wealthy but I guess the people who desire gated ocean front living at this time dont worry about a few thousand in taxes. Remember I built this house 17 years ago and in no way could I afford to buy in this area now. I understand the plight of people who are trying to buy now and cant afford the ridiculous taxes. I'm just looking for the best solution and will not vote for a bill I'm not comfortable with just to change the system. If this bill makes more sense to me as I research it more-then I'll change my mind and vote yes but it wont be because someone who doesnt even know me says I'm "selfish" on this forum

[losandjenn]

I'm trying very hard to figure out which way to vote. I'm one of the new property owners who just bought this year, so I don't have the benefit of SOH, or shoot of our $25K exemption. My one question about the superexemption, is everywhere I read/hear it's states its a ONE TIME exemption, does that mean only one time, and come 2009 we're SOL? Or does that mean it's one time for this house and if we decide to move and upgrade homes your no longer eligible for the exemption b/c you used your 1 time?

I'm really trying to understand this so I can make the best decision. I'm still for an increased sales tax, considering we don't have an income tax 6.5% is not high. We've lived in states where it's gone as high as 10% and you have a SIT to boot.

[riveree]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

riveree,

While Jacksonville is in much better shape in its real estate market than say, Cape Coral or Sarasota, it will take a beating by historical standards, and property values will probably stay way below the trend line of 5 percent for many years until the excess inventory is wrung out.

Check this out:

HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Jacksonville, Florida

This shows the inventory of listings in the greater Jax area was at only 5,600 in 2005 as up to 23,500 recently. So the inventory has gone up 4 times since 2005 and that doesn't reflect For Sale By Owners or discouraged sellers who have pulled their listings off the market.

See, there's part of the problem right there......."Jax Area". When it comes to discussing crime or bad schools, everyone is very careful to draw the line at what is happening in Duval County and what is happening in Clay or St. John's County (as if there is no crime or bad schools in the surrounding counties ).

But when it comes to discussing the state of the real estate market, people lump all three counties together which distorts the picture.

Directly from the stats you provided, here's the definition of "Jacksonville":

Jacksonville, Florida
Including Amelia City, Amelia Island, Atlantic Beach, Baldwin, Bryceville, Callahan, Dinsmore, Fernandina, Fernandina Beach, Fruit Cove, Glen Saint Mary, Jacksonville Beach, Jacksonville N A S, Julington Creek, Lawtey, Macclenny, Maxville, Middleburg, Neptune Beach, Orange Park, Ponte Vedra, Ponte Vedra Beach, Saint Augustine, Starke, Switzerland, Yulee

Five different counties are mentioned above .

Northern St. John's county (St. Augustine) is a mess. It was all woods until about 10 minutes ago when the developers swept in and plunked down dozens of master-planned communities all in the same style and price range......houses there are dropping by tens of thousands of dollars. A friend of ours who bought there earlier in the year is down by $50k as of a few weeks ago !

Yulee (Nassau County) might be in for the same - nothing but houses are being built there right now - sprouting like mushrooms . No infrastructure, just cheap houses (virtually the same thing developers did with Northern St. John's).

Duval (Jax) does not have any comparable areas to the degree of these counties. Yes, we still have some developments mid-construction, but nothing to the extent of the surrounding counties.

Duval has been affected, some spots have been hit hard, but others have not been hit that hard at all. As always, location plays a major role .

I'm not saying it's all rosey, it's not, but the sky is not falling here .