[riveree]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

Here is the chart for future property taxes on a 200k home under the Super and SOH with 1 percent appreciation over 20 years.



The Save our Homes only beats the Super in future property taxes if the future trend line over time averages above 3 percent.

It aint gonna happen folks.

The county caculators posted on all the tax assessor site are based on bogus projected trend lines.

1) Not too many people are going to be buying $200k houses these days, our city's median home price is higher than that and I'm sure other cities are well over it as well. I'd want to see it at a more realistic home price, maybe $300k? What happens then?

2) Are you saying that you expect Florida real estate to rise in value only 1% per year over the next 20 years???? I think that's very extreme.

[riveree]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

I agree, that Jax will fare better than most markets in Fla but if you can find the data for the last downturn that started in 1990, prices in Jax stayed below the trendline for almost 10 years after that one.

If a trendline of 5 percent reflects the bubble years price appreciation up until now,it is really distorted and future price appreciation will not average near that.

I bet prices in the next ten years will average less than the 3 percent that you are automatically charged under the Save our Homes program.

Betting on 5 percent average appreciation is a poor bet even in Jax.

That being said if you have waterfront, or are in a super hot area, it may be different.

This was a very different city 10 years ago though. The employment opportunities are very different than 10 years ago, culturally the city is different than 10 years ago (I won't say "very" - we're not quite there yet), a lot has changed.

You're right, location trumps all. Some people will be hit harder than others because they chose an oddball location......but that's always the case, isn't it?

I don't look backwards, I look forwards. Only time will tell how it will play here .

[tallrick]

Anyone who thinks that Florida's property values will be appreciating has been smoking some really good stuff. There's nowhere to go from here but down.

[riveree]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Anyone who thinks that Florida's property values will be appreciating has been smoking some really good stuff. There's nowhere to go from here but down.

How many subtropical peninsulas surrounded by beaches and water are there in the United States? One, Florida. People will always find Florida to be desireable due to it's uniqueness .

[bfa]

Originally Posted by losandjenn

I'm trying very hard to figure out which way to vote. I'm one of the new property owners who just bought this year, so I don't have the benefit of SOH, or shoot of our $25K exemption. My one question about the superexemption, is everywhere I read/hear it's states its a ONE TIME exemption, does that mean only one time, and come 2009 we're SOL? Or does that mean it's one time for this house and if we decide to move and upgrade homes your no longer eligible for the exemption b/c you used your 1 time?

I'm really trying to understand this so I can make the best decision. I'm still for an increased sales tax, considering we don't have an income tax 6.5% is not high. We've lived in states where it's gone as high as 10% and you have a SIT to boot.

No, it applies to any home you buy, now or in the future, as long as it's your primary residence (homestead).

[Jareb]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Anyone who thinks that Florida's property values will be appreciating has been smoking some really good stuff. There's nowhere to go from here but down.

I disagree Tallrick. Highly desirable waterfront properties in gated exclusive communities will at worst case scenario go down a small amount and will be the first to recover. People who buy in these areas are not too concerned with the cost of taxes and insurance and in many cases the mortgage mess is not applicable to them.

[wacahootaman]

Riveree, perhaps a 1 percent trend line for property apperciation over the next 20 years is extreme.

Here is a 3 percent comparison for the Super and SOH on a 300K market value home. The SOH home has a 300K market value but a 240K taxable value which is probably close for a lot of those SOH homeowners.

Even at 3 percent appreciation the Super beats the SOH over the next 10 years:

http://camaweb.customcama.com/superh...ropDownList=10

Given that this price bubble is the greatest ever for Jax area real estate, the bust will be the deepest and longest ever.

Even a 3 percent appreciation over the next 10 years is very optimistic.

[riveree]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

Riveree, perhaps a 1 percent trend line for property apperciation over the next 20 years is extreme.

Here is a 3 percent comparison for the Super and SOH on a 300K market value home. The SOH home has a 300K market value but a 240K taxable value which is probably close for a lot of those SOH homeowners.

Even at 3 percent appreciation the Super beats the SOH over the next 10 years:

http://camaweb.customcama.com/superh...ropDownList=10

Given that this price bubble is the greatest ever for Jax area real estate, the bust will be the deepest and longest ever.

Even a 3 percent appreciation over the next 10 years is very optimistic.

We'll have to see . And let's not forget we still have to consider the Per Capita Income Growth and Consumer Price Index. These are probably less of a concern, but will also be part of the calculation so any dramatic rises in either of these can also raise the taxable amount considerably since there will be no cap. So many unknowns........

[Liberty911]

I attended the Forum Club of the Palm Beachs presentation last month, featuring House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Rubio stated the citizens should vote for the amendment and the politicians would fix it later.

I am voting no. Giving up a Constitutional Amendment limiting growth of property tax is not a reasoanble choice.

[wacahootaman]

Originally Posted by Liberty911

I am voting no. Giving up a Constitutional Amendment limiting growth of property tax is not a reasoanble choice.

You wont be giving it up. You can keep your SOH exemption as long as you stay in your home, the same as it is now.

But if the Super passes and you move from that home you will have up to a 195 homestead exemption instead of the 25k one you have today.

It is a win/win situation.

Plus, it gives some tax relief to your neighbors who dont have the large tax deductions that you have.

People get divorced and have to move, move for a new job, inherit the family home and get slammed by abusive property taxes. It is not just the newcommers to Florida that get slammed by high tax assesments.

The super exemption would be a great inprovement to the situation for all homeowners.