[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by rstate

It really depends on where you live. People living in areas that are depressed in Florida think this huge bubble is going to deflate everywhere in Florida and that every home is going to deflate by 50%. These people are scared to purchase a home because their home values might fall.

People living in areas of Florida that are stable but slow realize that real estate is local and the doom and gloom theory isn't going to affect every Florida city. Therefore, people in these areas don't have a problem buying a home (after doing research), because they know they can get a good value and lock into a good interest rate.

There will always be debates since neither group is going to change their views on real estate.

A logical, well thought out post.
Since I agree with it you better be prepared to be flamed.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by JimKing

This is great....real estate agents all agreeing with each other and telling each other their posts "make perfect sense". You people have no shame.

But this is all just for poops and giggles. Florida real estate's fall is slowly picking up momentum. Hang in a few years SKB....people will be begging you to give them $200,000 for their ridiculously overpriced $500,000 houses.

The fun has not even remotely started yet, despite the nonsense the agents on this board spew out. I originally thought prices would fall 30-50% across Florida.

The more you step back and look at what is coming...prices will fall 50% minimum in the less bubbly areas and 75% in the frothiest areas.

Jim, I love that "poops and giggles". I may use that if you don't mind. I have never heard that before.

Yes, its quite funny and so predictable that the real estate agents will stick up for each other....Yup, they are in the sinking titanic together and even though people are putting on their life vests and getting into life boats they stand firm, are playing their violins and saying "nothing to see here folks, no worries, move along please".

[rstate]

Originally Posted by SKB

Yes, its quite funny and so predictable that the real estate agents will stick up for each other....Yup, they are in the sinking titanic together and even though people are putting on their life vests and getting into life boats they stand firm,

Obviously you have a hard time reading... I'm not a real estate agent. But make sure you get that life vest. I think you can buy one cheap on Craigslist.

[compelled to reply]

Flame war!!!!!!

Seriously guys, come on, mature up. Just talk about the topic. You are about to have a flame war on a website about city statistics!!!!!!!!!

[SKB]

Ok, here is one there is a seven year supply of homes for sale in Broward County.
Who is going to buy them?

[kort677]

Originally Posted by SKB

Ok, here is one there is a seven year supply of homes for sale in Broward County.
Who is going to buy them?

not you, for sure,
you're moving to WPB, which is in palm beach county, you shouldn't be focused on what's going on in broward, you should focus on WPB, what is happening in broward has little meaning in WPB

[floridamove2]

Originally Posted by JimKing

The Big Picture | Nasdaq versus 1929 bubble

The second Great Depression

There are many similarities between the pre-Depression era and our own. Paul Alexander Gusmorino says: “The Great Depression was the worst economic slump ever in U.S. history, and one which spread to virtually all of the industrialized world. The depression began in late 1929 and lasted for about a decade. . . . The excessive speculation in the late 1920s kept the stock market artificially high, but eventually led to large market crashes. These market crashes, combined with the misdistribution of wealth, caused the American economy to capsize.”

“[The income disparity] between the rich and the middle class grew throughout the 1920s. While the disposable income per capita rose 9 percent from 1920 to 1929, those with income within the top 1 percent enjoyed a stupendous 75 percent increase in per capita disposable income . . . A major reason for this large and growing gap between the rich and the working-class people was the increased manufacturing output throughout this period. From 1923-1929 the average output per worker increased 32 percent in manufacturing. During that same period, average wages for manufacturing jobs increased only 8 percent (This ultimately causes a decrease in demand and leads to growth in credit spending)

“The federal government also contributed to the growing gap between the rich and middle-class. Calvin Coolidge’s (pro business) administration passed the Revenue Act of 1926, which reduced federal income and inheritance taxes dramatically . . . (At the same time) the Supreme Court ruled minimum-wage legislation unconstitutional.

“The bottom three quarters of the population had an aggregate income of less than 45 percent of the combined national income; while the top 25 percent of the population took in more than 55 percent of the national income . . . Between 1925 and 1929 the total credit more than doubled from $1.38 billion to around $3 billion.”

Just like now, the growing wage gap has spawned massive speculative bubbles as well as a steady up-tick in credit spending. Wage stagnation forces workers to seek other opportunities for getting ahead. When wages fail to keep pace with productivity then demand naturally decreases and business begins to flag. The only way to spur more buying is by easing interest rates or expanding personal credit, and that is when equity bubbles begin to appear. That’s what happened to the stock market before 1929 as well as to the real estate market in 2007. The availability of credit has kept the housing market afloat but, ultimately, the result will be the same.

On Monday October 21, 1929, the over-valued stock market began its downward plunge. It managed a brief mid-week comeback, but seven days later, on Black Tuesday, it plummeted again; 16 million shares were dumped and there were no buyers.

The game was over.

Confidence evaporated overnight. People stopped buying on credit, the bubble-economy collapsed, and the mighty locomotive for growth, the American consumer, hobbled into the Great Depression. Tariffs were thrown up, foreigners stopped buying American goods; banks closed, business went bust, and unemployment skyrocketed. Ten years later the country was still reeling from the implosion.

Now, 77 years later, Greenspan has led us sheep-like to the same precipice. The economic dilemma we’re facing could have been avoided if the expansion of personal credit had been curtailed by prudent monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and if wealth were more evenly distributed as it was in the ’60s and ’70s. But that’s not the case; so we’re headed for hard times.

It's can't do that today. We are too smart for that !

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by SKB

Ok, here is one there is a seven year supply of homes for sale in Broward County.
Who is going to buy them?

Oh, that's not really a 7 year supply; it's just a good time to buy because there is such a great selection right now. In fact you better buy now because all of the people waiting on the sidelines are suddenly going to decide to buy and you won't get your choice of prime house. Also, don't forget tons of baby boomers are moving down and are going to snap up all the houses and you will be left out. I heard interest rates are going to go up, so if you don't buy now you will be paying 10% rates later. Also, prices have already corrected (forget about the inventory) so if you don't buy now, you will be priced out of the market forever.

[V20]

Every time a new electronic device/toy comes on the market, people rush to buy it at a very high price. One year later the same item is 50% less and another year later it is selling for 20% of the original price. (remember the $600 DVD recorders of a few years ago that are now selling for $89). You would think that people would just wait a little while and then they would get a great deal on the item. But it happens over and over again. The new Apple phones came out and they were lines outside the stores to buy them!! Who could be so stupid?

It fits in with my belief that most of us behave like a school of fish. "Everyone is buying that - it must be good - I need to have that." How many poeple paid cash for those $600 phones?

When it was evident that the real estate market was hot, all sorts of people jumped in "Wow, this stuff must be great - I've got to get in on it."

Now that the market is dead, the school of fish is swimming in the other direction. "No one is buying - there must be something wrong with this stuff."

Clearly once there are signs that the market is showing signs of life, the school of fish will turn again.

It is only a question of how long until that happens.

[lostbuyer]

Originally Posted by UKOK

Oh, that's not really a 7 year supply; it's just a good time to buy because there is such a great selection right now. In fact you better buy now because all of the people waiting on the sidelines are suddenly going to decide to buy and you won't get your choice of prime house. Also, don't forget tons of baby boomers are moving down and are going to snap up all the houses and you will be left out. I heard interest rates are going to go up, so if you don't buy now you will be paying 10% rates later. Also, prices have already corrected (forget about the inventory) so if you don't buy now, you will be priced out of the market forever.

good one...I see people saying this everywhere...but they dont realize if interest rates go up,prices will only fall further.