[kelly3120]

hey hey hey
thanks for standing up for me but 25 or 85 I can read and I'm educated. Even more I know not to believe everything I read.

I think there is no bubble but I'm not sharing my thoughts w/ someone like you(jimking) ...dude, you need to have a drink and get a grip. Why should I share my thoughts? ...you obviously have a chip on your shoulder and think the sky is falling. I've bought and sold in 4 months, sounds good to me.

I will pray for you and your bubble ....okay??? ...why don't you go buy some bubble gum

[Carbondated]

Originally Posted by kort677

yes he's entitled to his opinions but how relevant can those opinions be if he isn't even here in FLA?

His opinion is just as relevant due to the fact that we all garner our sources and formulate opinions based on various media outlets, (newspapers, TV news, internet websites). Charts and graphs of the current real estate market, which provide factual information, are as available to him as it is to anyone else.

Perhaps his opinion is even more "developed" because he is geographically detached from Florida. It is always said that it is easier understand a problem when you are not in the maelstrom of it.

A certain amount of detachment from the opinions and emotions of your neighborhood realtors, flippers, developers, homeowners, non-homeowners is a good thing.

[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by Carbondated

His opinion is just as relevant due to the fact that we all garner our sources and formulate opinions based on various media outlets, (newspapers, TV news, internet websites). Charts and graphs of the current real estate market, which provide factual information, are as available to him as it is to anyone else.

Perhaps his opinion is even more "developed" because he is geographically detached from Florida. It is always said that it is easier understand a problem when you are not in the maelstrom of it.

A certain amount of detachment from the opinions and emotions of your neighborhood realtors, flippers, developers, homeowners, non-homeowners is a good thing.

When people use data that is not factual due to sources that are not reliable it makes their opinion worthless.
That is why I respect the point of view of posters like nychiefsfan even though it differs from mine. He will use news sources and other data to back up his thoughts but does not try to overinflate numbers to try and make his claims more valid.
Their are others that pull numbers out of a hat, so it seems, to try and qualify their posts and then attempt to flame others that use real numbers to refute the previously quoted figures.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by Carbondated

His opinion is just as relevant due to the fact that we all garner our sources and formulate opinions based on various media outlets, (newspapers, TV news, internet websites). Charts and graphs of the current real estate market, which provide factual information, are as available to him as it is to anyone else.

Perhaps his opinion is even more "developed" because he is geographically detached from Florida. It is always said that it is easier understand a problem when you are not in the maelstrom of it.

A certain amount of detachment from the opinions and emotions of your neighborhood realtors, flippers, developers, homeowners, non-homeowners is a good thing.

just as all real estate is local, "feel" for the tempo of the market can only be derived from being on location. You cannot have a decent read of any market from afar.

[JimKing]

Originally Posted by Carbondated

His opinion is just as relevant due to the fact that we all garner our sources and formulate opinions based on various media outlets, (newspapers, TV news, internet websites). Charts and graphs of the current real estate market, which provide factual information, are as available to him as it is to anyone else.

Perhaps his opinion is even more "developed" because he is geographically detached from Florida. It is always said that it is easier understand a problem when you are not in the maelstrom of it.

A certain amount of detachment from the opinions and emotions of your neighborhood realtors, flippers, developers, homeowners, non-homeowners is a good thing.

Appreciate the support Carbondated. I'm not sure how I am "detached from Florida". I lived in Pensacola, West Palm, Jupiter, and Tampa. We are in PA now due to business but are planning our return next year. That is the very reason we are doing so much research on the Florida market. We have friends all over Florida who tell us the number of for sale and for rent signs in various areas, rental rates vs listing prices, the days on market, what their neighbors are telling them. We are quite tuned in to Florida real estate.

But everyone is welcome to come to their own conclusions about Florida housing. In our specific situation, we are looking to move to Parkland or west Boca Raton. Currently we can rent a suitable house for $2000/month in either location...HOA fees, pool and lawn service included. $2000 plus utilities is our total cost for housing. The landlords are willing to negotiate the deposit so we can get in for one month security and nothing else up front. They are willing to allow checks that their house payments are current. They are willing to put our security deposit in escrow.

The same houses are listing for $500,000 in Boca and $600,000 and up in Parkland. Mortgage, HOA fees, maintenance, down payment, closing costs, insurance, property taxes.

When the cost of ownership is more than double rents....that is a flat out housing bubble in these areas.

[LABRAT16]

The Bust won't be over until all things stabilize: housing, wages, and healthcare costs. Right now housing is high, wages are low, and healthcare is being dictated by the same fools that control insurance costs. What good is a good priced home if you can't meet the mortgage payment because the HOI is through the roof, or wages are some of the lowest in the country. Healthcare costs are high because of Insurance and For Profit (HCA) groups. They keep wages down to increasee their profit margin, which leads to poor care. Heck, take a look at the fat cats on top to see what they make and what some of their bonus' are and for what. The major bonus is from cutting costs, mainly wages. Get with the program. Money is still the top dog and people are the droppings left behind.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

When people use data that is not factual due to sources that are not reliable it makes their opinion worthless.
That is why I respect the point of view of posters like nychiefsfan even though it differs from mine. He will use news sources and other data to back up his thoughts but does not try to overinflate numbers to try and make his claims more valid.
Their are others that pull numbers out of a hat, so it seems, to try and qualify their posts and then attempt to flame others that use real numbers to refute the previously quoted figures.

Thanks, Mike!

Speaking of numbers:

The number of U.S. home foreclosures rose 87% in June year over year. There were 164,644 loan default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repressions, led by California, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. If you assume that each of these homes is worth the median U.S. home price, that's $36 billion in defaults. And if you assume the banks, hedge funds, and bond managers that own these debts will recover 75% of this value, that's an estimated $9 billion in losses…in one month.

The Flirting Mistress of Prosperity

[nychiefsfan]

Housing slump pulls down leading indicators
By Bloomberg News | July 20, 2007

WASHINGTON -- A measure of the economy's future direction fell more than forecast in June, pulled down by the worst housing slump in 16 years.
Article Tools

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators declined 0.3 percent after rising a revised 0.2 percent in May, the New York research group said yesterday. Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index fell last month from a two-year high.

The figures suggest the economy will slow in the second half of the year after probably growing about 3 percent last quarter, economists said. Even with the decline in the Philadelphia index, manufacturing will probably remain strong enough to keep the six-year expansion going.

"Housing remains in something close to a free fall, but the rest of the economy is still hanging in there," said Douglas Porter, of BMO Capital Markets.

The leading index was forecast to fall 0.1 percent, according to the median of economists' projections in a Bloomberg News survey, after an originally reported May increase of 0.3 percent. The index, which points to the economy's outlook over the next three to six months, was down in four of 2007's first six months.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index decreased to 9.2 in July from 18 in June, which was the highest level in more than two years, the bank said today. The index averaged 5.3 in the first six months of the year.

Housing slump pulls down leading indicators - The Boston Globe

[nychiefsfan]

As for using "numbers", I learned a lot by writing a kajillion APA style papers with scholarly references for my BA and MS degrees. For this discussion, the daily news is scholarly enough for me, even though I think some of the numbers reported get tweaked a little or the emphasis of the numbers is lightened from people like Bernanke by using words like "moderate".

[JimKing]

Forgive me if I don't buy the posters here who say "There is no housing bubble in Florida because I sold my house" or tell me that I should buy bubble gum...I think I will listen to the real world evidence instead, from today's housing bubble blog:

‘Florida is the epicenter for all the problems that exist in the housing industry,’ said Lewis Goodkin, a property adviser in Miami for the past 30 years, who also foresees a recession. ‘The problems we have now are unprecedented and a lot of people will get burnt.’”

“Florida’s robust economy of 2001 to 2005 was driven by the thousands of well-paying jobs related to the real estate market and homeowners who used home-equity loans to pay for items such as boats and big-screen TVs, McCabe said.”

“‘All those jobs are going away now, and we’re seeing the trickle-down effect in declining sales in big-box retailers and home-furnishing manufacturers,’ housing consultant Jack McCabe said. ‘Florida is headed to a recession.’”

“Florida banks posted a 43 percent jump in the first quarter in loans no longer paying interest compared with the last three months of 2006, while the number for banks nationwide rose 13 percent, according to the FDIC.”

“Loan payments that were one to three months overdue to Florida banks increased 30 percent in the first three months of 2007 from the fourth quarter of last year.”

The Naples News from Florida. “A standing-room-only crowd turned out Thursday night to tell Collier County officials, for nearly three hours, that a planning moratorium is premature. They may have been successful, or it could have been that planning commissioners themselves walked in questioning the intelligence of the plan. Either way, it was defeated.”

“Richard Davenport, of Waterways Homes, said Collier County is already in a de facto moratorium because of the business climate resulting from rampant real estate speculation a few years ago.”

“‘A planning moratorium ordinance sounded sort of innocuous. A planning moratorium ordinance is not innocuous. It’s playing around with peoples’ lives and livelihoods,’ Davenport said.”

“Developer Walter Crawford wondered why county officials believed the greater Naples area population is increasing.”

“A friend told Crawford to tell the county to ‘wake up and smell the recession.’”

“‘In my world, people are moving north…to Tennessee, to North Carolina, they’re moving to the mountains,’ Crawford said.”



‘In a move with big implications for Southwest Florida, State Farm Insurance plans to drop about 50,000 homeowners policies next year in what it considers risky areas along the coast.’

‘Having already cut 250 jobs to save money, Volusia County school officials are now looking for ways to trim another $9.2 million from their budget because of slumping state tax collections. And Flagler school officials may have to look at job cuts, too.’

‘Williams said the state tax shortfall illustrates the need for a more reliable way to pay for schools and other government services. ‘We’re basing everything on tourism and it’s not working,’ Williams said, referring to the shortfall predicted in state sales taxes, much of which is paid by tourists.’

‘Tourism is not going to be the way to keep Florida going,’ Williams said. ‘We’re going to have to get industry in here some way.’

‘Phones are ringing off the hook at the south Pinellas County Salvation Army. Progress Energy said this type of scenario is taking place throughout the state, not just in the Bay area.’

‘Last month, 22,000 homes statewide had their power service interrupted because they couldn’t pay their bill. That’s a 15 percent increase from last year. Also on the rise is the number of delinquent accounts - more than 100,000 accounts. That represents a 12 percent increase.’