[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by SKB

Excellent housing market tracker:

HousingTracker.net: Collecting, Interpreting and Disseminating Real Estate Data

Good stuff, SKB.

Thanks!

[nychiefsfan]

It's Going to Get Better, But Question is When?


LAKELAND - When is the real estate market going to make a change for the better?

It's the million dollar question on every person's mind that has anything to do with real estate or building.

Predictions on the market abound on the Internet, television and newspapers.

Local Realtors have said that sales of existing homes are picking up. But those reports haven't been backed by home sales statistics.

Polk home sales dropped 35 percent, from 564 in May 2006 to 367 in May this year, the most current figures available. It's the 12th consecutive month the totals have declined from the previous year's total.

And building permit totals haven't fared much better.

County building permits for new home construction were down nearly 44 percent last month, dropping to 321 from 571 a year ago.

Only median home sales prices remained as good news in the monthly reports. But now, even that is going down. For the second time this year, the prices dropped to $171,000 in May from $177,900 a year ago, a decline of 4 percent.

In an April conference in Lakeland, David Lereah, former economist for the National Association of Realtors predicted the local market would turn around in 2008.

"In August 2005 we peaked," Lereah said. "That was the end of the boom. We just went down from there. And speculators got caught with their financial pants down."

Last year, Florida's residential real estate went into a recession.

U.S. Census population projections have Polk at 624,348 residents by 2020, so the growth is going to come from somewhere.

And about 4,000 of the county's commuters are already migrating in from Hillsborough and Orange counties.

But a glut of homes has the market stalled. The Polk County Builders Association has estimated that figure to be almost 5,000 homes, many of which are in the northeast quadrant of the county.

The Four Corners area of Polk, near Interstate 4 and Poinciana, was hit hard with investors looking to make a quick buck.

But Jeff Lazerson, president of Mortgage Grader in Laguna Niguel, Calif., said he doesn't believe Polk's market is going to turn around for almost two years.

Higher interest rates, prices, speculative investors and questions on property taxes have made Florida buyers a bit timid, he said.

But it will turn around, that's one thing everyone can agree upon. It's just, when will that time come?


It's Going to Get Better, But Question is When? | theledger.com

[nychiefsfan]

Florida Home Sellers throwing in Cars & Pool Tables

In the most recent data available, according to the Florida Association of Realtors home sales in the state totaled 12,607 for the month of May. That’s down 34% from last year, when there were 19,072 homes sold. The median price has also dropped from $250,100 a year ago to $237,000 this May.

With the market in a bit of low spot for home sellers, now is a good time to get some great deals on homes in Florida (how many times have we read that line? There's a TON of OVERPRICED inventory, but not many deals) . Whether you are looking for a second home, rental property or an overseas retirement condominium, Florida has plenty of property on the market right now for great prices. If you take your time and see what it is available, there are some good deals to be made.

One example of the kind of deals that are available to prospective buyers is this home in Spring Hill, along the western mid section. The seller, a British expat, is selling his car, pool table and other furniture with the home. You can get everything you need for a second home in one swoop! With deals like this, it’s a good time to be looking for a home in Florida. More at :

http://www.homesgofast.com/florida/find_florida_property.php

For those looking at condominiums, it’s also a buyer’s market. In May there were 4,090 units sold, a drop of 28% from the previous year when there were 5,671 sales. The median price this year was $202,500, a 4% drop from a year ago with the median price then of $210,800.

Buyers can find great deals across the state, including in some non traditional areas. While many people look only at the well-known areas of Orlando, Miami and Tampa, there are lots of other places as well. The west coast north of Tampa has some great beaches and deals. Some of the nicest beaches in the whole state are located on what is called the Emerald Coast, which is along the northwest panhandle from Pensacola to Panama City Beach.

Florida Home Sellers throwing in Cars & Pool Tables-International Real Estate News

[nychiefsfan]

I read an article where a realtor stated,]"But buyers need to realize prices could start up and if they wait, they could miss the boat."

Nice scare tactic. I (sarcastically) want to buy NOW so I won't have to overextend my credit even more!!!

Sellers and (some) realtors need to realize that most of the remaining buyers are smart enough not to overspend on a house. The 2-3x your annual total gross income is a good way to determine how much you can afford. I know many people on the other side of the fence disagree with JK's 120-150x rule but it still makes sense to me.

I have a multi-millionaire uncle who is (mostly) retired from the realty business (he still speculates and dabbles). I recently spoke with him regarding the housing bust. He owns homes and property in both NJ and FL. In his opinion, the housing bust will continue "until people can afford homes." He doesn't think the bottom will hit for at least two more years. I asked him, in his opinion, how much will houses cost overall when we hit the bottom? He believes that prices will revert back to what they were in 2002-03.

I realize my uncle's opinion is "hearsay" and did not come from a scholarly journal or newspaper, but everything my uncle touches turns to gold and I treat his advice as such.

[kort677]

Since y'all posting urls, here's one that dispells the gloom and doom theories:

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

sure prices are weak in some places but but on average FLA shows a 4.34% average price appreciation.
And nationally things are in fairly decent shape to, the sky really isn't falling! despite what the media hammers you with.

According to the maps, more than HALF of FLA's areas have shown price INCREASES.
The weakest real estate markets are found in the west coast from south of St. pete down to ft myers and areas west of there.

There is much data to be mined at this site, which appears to have no axe to grind

have fun

[Mike Peterson]

Some good data there Kort.

Thanks for the info.

If you compare Florida's appreciation to the whole of the South Atlantic states for the 1st quarter this year, we are only slightly lower now even though we showed some of the highest appreciation over the last few years.

[Mike Peterson]

Here is some interesting reading from the OFHEO website.
It refers to the Shiller graph that was on here so much over the last month or so.
Seems Shillers graph wasn't as accurate as it could have been.

"Based on a review of the methodology documentation that is available, it appears that OFHEO’s
national index has broader geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price
Index. Although the current methodology primer produced by S&P/Case-Shiller provides no
detailed information concerning coverage for specific states, the prior version of the
methodology document (dated April 2007) supplies some information. If the S&P/Case-Shiller
coverage has not changed substantially since April, it appears that the S&P/Case-Shiller National
Index has coverage gaps relative to the OFHEO U.S. index.
According to the methodology materials, the S&P/Case-Shiller index does not include house
price data from thirteen states.2 Market conditions in those thirteen states have, on average, been
stronger than in the rest of the nation. OFHEO’s estimates indicate, for example, that three of
the five fastest appreciating states in the nation (Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming) do not have
representation in the S&P/Case-Shiller index. This missing information has likely caused some
of the divergence between the trends shown in the two national indexes.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index also apparently has incomplete coverage in another 29 states.3 For
these states with incomplete coverage, the documentation provides an estimate for the “percent
of state covered by the index,” but does not detail the specific areas for which data areunavailable. To the extent that the missing areas tend to be more rural counties, given that rural
areas appear to be exhibiting stronger market conditions in recent periods, the missing data might
partially explain why the OFHEO and S&P/Case-Shiller national indexes diverge."

[firemed]

Florida is Bubble proof !

[firemed]

In Cape Coral the market is looking bad, But if you pull up Zillow it looks sweet. I see this first hand and can't understand the numbers that the NAR show, The mark downs in prices are all over. I just don't see much selling or kept up to sell. Jobs lost, Job transfers, sellers who already have purchased another house and moved, and those who have lost their homes to foreclosure are all leaving unsold properties sitting empty.
The News-Press, news-press.com, Real Estate, High weeds hinder sales

[SKB]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Here is some interesting reading from the OFHEO website.
It refers to the Shiller graph that was on here so much over the last month or so.
Seems Shillers graph wasn't as accurate as it could have been.

"Based on a review of the methodology documentation that is available, it appears that OFHEO’s
national index has broader geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price
Index. Although the current methodology primer produced by S&P/Case-Shiller provides no
detailed information concerning coverage for specific states, the prior version of the
methodology document (dated April 2007) supplies some information. If the S&P/Case-Shiller
coverage has not changed substantially since April, it appears that the S&P/Case-Shiller National
Index has coverage gaps relative to the OFHEO U.S. index.
According to the methodology materials, the S&P/Case-Shiller index does not include house
price data from thirteen states.2 Market conditions in those thirteen states have, on average, been
stronger than in the rest of the nation. OFHEO’s estimates indicate, for example, that three of
the five fastest appreciating states in the nation (Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming) do not have
representation in the S&P/Case-Shiller index. This missing information has likely caused some
of the divergence between the trends shown in the two national indexes.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index also apparently has incomplete coverage in another 29 states.3 For
these states with incomplete coverage, the documentation provides an estimate for the “percent
of state covered by the index,” but does not detail the specific areas for which data areunavailable. To the extent that the missing areas tend to be more rural counties, given that rural
areas appear to be exhibiting stronger market conditions in recent periods, the missing data might
partially explain why the OFHEO and S&P/Case-Shiller national indexes diverge."

Who cares, Florida is toast.