Florida Housing market Thread (mortgage, credit, lawyer)

[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

real estate agents will lose their jobs?and what will they do afterwards?I know construccion just lost about 16thousand people,in florida alone.

The agents that will out of the business will mostly be the ones that just got in for the last few years.
The agents that have been at this a while know what a normal market looks like and will still earn a living.

[afghan67]

Well, to be fair, real estate agents were not the cause of this problem. Speculators and loose credit were the causes.

Now that being said, realtors are part of the problem right now. They do not make money unless they sell houses. And in this market, you would be insane to buy unless you have a long (5 years+) time horizon. But realtors are buying ads everywhere touting that this is the time to buy. This is going to be like the NASDAQ; historic run followed by a historic crash.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Nope, Realtors aren't going anywhere.

And your prices won't go where you hope they will either.

I don't think it's "my" prices but a consensus of like mind individuals on this board. Sorry to tell you Mike but you are out numbered here now.

Saying that, time for bed, my Josh Groban CD is done and I am done winding down.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by JimKing

These housing prices will swing back down below 1999 prices eventually, when adjusted for inflation. Along with that, developers will move in to build affordable housing. The end result will be houses in the $200,000 range will sell for $100,000.

But the most vulnerable part of the market are the 3-5 bedroom homes currently 'valued' between $350,000-800,000". There are just way to many searching for fewer buyers.

The effects of other debt, high taxes, high insurance, high gas and energy costs will knock out more and more buyers every year. The end of phony appraisals and funny lending will do the same.

Today's $350,000 house may get cut by 50%. As you work up the ladder, the cuts will be a higher percentage. All these houses currently listed at $500,000 to $800,000....they will be lucky to eventually sell for 40% of that.

I totally agree. Housing prices will have to drop significantly before this bottoms out.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by JimKing

It is quite an amusing way to spend a little time each day....at least until football season starts.

GO CHIEFS!!!!

[nychiefsfan]

The existing home sales report comes out this Wednesday and the new home sales report comes out on Thursday.

Reports from Briefing.com - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

[nychiefsfan]

Regional Housing Experts Serve Up hocking View of the U.S. Housing Market

Housing experts around the country share their views on local and national housing markets in a series of exclusive interviews. Topics include everything from home prices, sales, and new construction to foreclosures, mortgage lending, and proposed government bailouts.

San Francisco, CA (PRWEB) July 23, 2007 -- eFinanceDirectory.com (Home Loans and Personal Finance Advice | eFinanceDirectory.com), a news hub for real estate and mortgage markets, recently published a series of exclusive interviews conducted with various housing experts around the nation. (Housing Expert Interviews | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Each regional expert candidly answered multiple questions about both local and national real estate markets, foreclosures, home sales, mortgage lending, Fed rate changes, and much more. The existence of a U.S. housing bubble and the pressure it has placed on individual markets was also a common topic, and nearly everyone had a different view.

One thing that almost every interviewee could agree on, however, is that the country is currently in the midst of a market correction that is likely to cause home prices to drop dramatically.

Excerpt from Interview with Schahrzad Berkland (CaliforniaHousingForecast.com):
"Prices will fall in half. We'll go back to 1999 prices. It could be worse. Don't be surprised by my statement. Let's just look at what happened in the 1980s and 1990's downturns. It's easy enough to look up at the County Recorder Office, or on the MLS, but neither the County Recorder, nor the realtors, wants to advertise the ugly truth: CA has 15 year housing cycles and prices fall 30 percent to 50 percent in a downturn." (State of the Housing Market: Update from Schahrzad Berkland | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Mike Shedlock (Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis):
"It took Japan 18 years to hit bottom. I suspect it will take at least 5 to 7 here and 5 is very optimistic. It could easily take 10 years or more. My best guess is 7 but it all depends on what the Fed does to fight it. Prices will decline most in the bubble areas: California, Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boston. Some of the rust belt states where masses of jobs were lost will also get hit hard."
(Housing Bubble Analysis: Interview with Global Economic Trend Analysis (Mish) | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Patrick Killelea (Patrick.net):
"I think it's safe to say that asking prices will keep falling until they get back in line with historical norms, probably 5 years or more. I agree with Scharzad Berkland that a 50 percent fall is entirely within reason, but it seems that 40 percent is more likely since inflation will hide some of the loss." (The San Francisco Bay Area Bubble: Interview with Patrick Killelea (Patrick.net) | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Rich Toscano (Professor Piggington's Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor):
"Assuming that prices decline slowly, that inflation isn't too high, and that there's no government bailout, San Diego prices would have to fall at least 25% to get remotely back in line with fundamentals. They could fall less if inflation raged or the government intervened. They could also fall more if lenders really tightened, rates went up, or the market followed its historical pattern of going from being overpriced to underpriced (not just fairly priced)." (Future of the Southern California Housing Market: Interview with Rich Toscano | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Mark Gregg (Texas Housing Bubble Blog):
"I think a 5 percent decrease across the state [Texas is quite possible with some areas experiencing a decrease closer to 10 percent. These numbers could go even higher depending on how much migration is derailed due to the crash in other parts of the country." (Texas Housing Market: Interview with Texas Housing Bubble Blog | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Warren Brussee (The Second Great Depression):
"Homes would have to drop an additional 25% to be back at the expected value of homes based on their historical 2.3% yearly increase. And, since homes were being built to satisfy the increased demand of the last few years, there are too many homes for the reduced number of qualified buyers that will be standing after the crash. This makes it likely that homes will fall even MORE than 25%." (The Second Great Depression: Interview with Author Warren Brussee | eFinanceDirectory.com)

Excerpt from Interview with Chicago Bubble Blog:
"In the Chicago area as a whole, I think 10-15% would be a fair adjustment over the next 3-5 years. I think it will be a protracted adjustment with the bottom being sometime early next decade and a period of flat growth for another 3-5 years after that. We might not see any real growth in the area again until 2015-2020." (http://efinancedirectory.com/article...ubbleBlog.html)

Regional Housing Experts Serve Up Shocking View of the U.S. Housing Market

[Old Man Winter]

Thank you for the great information. Im curious about opinions regarding florida forclosures affecting this as well. California was just rated highest in the country and Florida was #2 , I do not have the numbers from the study but i wonder if this will affect working class people like myself from actually being able to get a mortgage. With home prices well exceeding the median income I cant see the market changing any time soon. Lenders will be less likely to lend to the working class and sellers will keep prices well above what homes are worth. Great post , and if any in the know have info about the forclosure issue I would love some opinions.

[nychiefsfan]

What excuses are left for why the RE industry is experiencing pathetic home sales?

1. At the end of last year, the NAR blamed unusually warm winter weather that pushed some buyers into the market earlier in the year.

2. We had the "poor weather" excuse at the beginning of the year.

3. Tightening of lending standards excuse (while it is a factor, there are many people on the sidelines waiting to buy with CASH)

4. Taxes

5. Insurance

6. "Sales slow down around the 4th of July".

7. Lawrence "The Village Idiot" Yun: "Household formation has drastically slowed in an expanding market. This implies to me that people want to wait it out."


Kids are going back to school soon. One would think that if people were going to buy homes, they would buy them before the 2nd week of August so they can get their kids lined up with going to school.

There will be yet another excuse why people didn't buy homes in July (and August, September, October, etc etc).

Here's a few excuses that I made up:

1. The weather was too nice. People were out enjoying the sun with their families.

2. Football season is approaching. Statistically, men do not want to buy a house during football season (that covers you through Feb!!!)

3. The prices of houses are too low. People want to spend more on a house than what they're currently listed at.

4. People are waiting until Christmas, (when money is really tight), to buy homes for all of their family members.

5. People are waiting until January 1st to buy a home because of tax purposes.

6. People are ___(place adjective here)_______ to buy a new home because ____(place excuse here)__________.

[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

Regional Housing Experts Serve Up hocking View of the U.S. Housing Market

Are these experts because they call themselves experts and have blogs?

Lets look at one of them Warren Brussee, he was an engineer at GE for 33 years, he is now trying to sell his book "The Second Great Depression".

Lets keep in mind that most people understand we have been in a market correction. Where most differ is in how much it has or will correct. There are some areas that have seen a slight correction and are done there are other areas that will correct more. Of course someone selling a book called "The Second Great Depression" might want people to think the worst is coming.
You may see isolated extreme price declines but it will not be the norm.