[carolac]

Thank you for saying this. I was shocked to see that even in preditory lending, a certain amount of "puffing" was/is allowed to secure the deal. Even I, who have no financial training, can sit down with my paycheck and list out my bills, etc. and see that I could not afford past a certain amount of mortgage. I applaud the smart buyers today. I would not be buying right now, and as painful as this list is to read sometimes with the hacking up of realtors, I've learned a lot here. Positive rep point to you our new Florida friend.

Originally Posted by SKB

I think the buyers need to shoulder more blame, what ever happened to "buyer beware" Most people spend more time researching out their wide screen TV's than they did finding out what exactly they were signing off on.

How many people with small salaries actually believed they could afford to buy a home that cost them 7 times their yearly income?

When did people start thinking paying 200K++++ was normal and acceptable for a home?

What ever happened to saving up money for a down payment?

What ever happened to thinking a home is a place to live in instead of an investment opportunity?

I do blame realtors but, I think the real finger pointing should begin at the source, no one forced anyone to buy in this market.

Greed drove this pig and nothing else.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Sunandsand

Foreclosures filed in Hernando from the SP Times

Year Amount
2005 528
2006 728
2007* 1,143
*Year to date

A doubling of foreclosures in 2 years does not indicate the Hernando County market has reached bottom. Foreclosures will go over 1200 this year. How about next year as more people are pushed to the edge with rising food costs, gas prices, credit card debt, resetting mortgages? Who knows, we may see over 2000 more foreclosures in the county next year. That is a lot of houses the banks have to unload.

Days on market can be manipulated by pulling a listing and then relisting, median sale price can be manipulated by not counting give backs which are getting larger and larger, and inventory does not count people that have pulled listings, decided to rent out the house, or are trying for sale by owner.

Foreclosure numbers can not be manipulated. Common sense tells you that that trend does not bode well for Hernando County residential real estate.

Foreclosures are up yet the prices are holding. This would seem like a good positive indicator to me.
Your post mentions a few other things that could be affecting the numbers but they are all speculative. They is no way to quantify any of those factors.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

hey mike not trying to be rude,but how many properties have you sold this year vs. last or 05 for that matter?,just wondering.

This year looks like I will be down 16% from last year.
2006 I was down 24% from 2005.
2005 I was up 46% from 2004.
I also started managing an office around April 2006 so that brought some of my numbers down but to put it in perspective my numbers this year will be very close to my 2004 numbers.

[Sunandsand]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Foreclosures are up yet the prices are holding. This would seem like a good positive indicator to me.
Your post mentions a few other things that could be affecting the numbers but they are all speculative. They is no way to quantify any of those factors.

Mike, no offense, but that is just plain silly. Prices are holding...yet foreclosures are rising fast? And the band kept playing on the Titanic.

Obviously those foreclosures will be sold at lower prices and eventually bring down the comps the lenders use to make decisions on how much to lend. Most lenders have tightened their credit policies and now require 5,6,7 comps before writing a loan. These foreclosure sale prices will start being factored into those comps. eventually.

1200 plus foreclosures this year, probably another 2000 next year, and many ARMs yet to reset over the next 24 months.

It is blatantly obvious that the long term trend will be down for prices as these negatives build in Hernando.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Sunandsand

Mike, no offense, but that is just plain silly. Prices are holding...yet foreclosures are rising fast? And the band kept playing on the Titanic.

Obviously those foreclosures will be sold at lower prices and eventually bring down the comps the lenders use to make decisions on how much to lend. Most lenders have tightened their credit policies and require 5,6,7 comps before writing a loan. These foreclosure sale prices will start being factored into those comps. eventually.

1200 plus foreclosures this year, probably another 2000 next year, and many ARMs yet to reset over the next 24 months.

It is blatantly obvious that the long term trend will be down for prices as these negatives build in Hernando.

By your reasoning since foreclosures have already risen we should have already seen drops in price this year yet they have been steady all year.
You say they will eventually be factored in. Shouldn't they already be factored in.
We have seen the prices come down 10% off the peak in Hernando County but we also did not see as great an appreciation as other counties so we did not have as much to come down.
I know you live in South Florida and expect all other areas to mirror what is going on there but that is not how it is.

[sillynilly]

I can't even think of buying a home now.There our homes in my old area some people paided 230,000 looking out your window across the same street people paid 500,000 3 yrs later .

[SKB]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

By your reasoning since foreclosures have already risen we should have already seen drops in price this year yet they have been steady all year.
You say they will eventually be factored in. Shouldn't they already be factored in.
We have seen the prices come down 10% off the peak in Hernando County but we also did not see as great an appreciation as other counties so we did not have as much to come down.
I know you live in South Florida and expect all other areas to mirror what is going on there but that is not how it is.

We have not seen big drops yet because the banks have not started discounting yet. Come the 3rd week in January the banks are going to be forced to write these properties off of their books. When that happens expect major discounts.

Check out this first link to see how many NOD went out between Jan 1 to July 1.
Then check out the ARM re set table. It is very obvious what is about to happen next, the biggest waves of resets have not even happened yet.

PBC mortgage loan defaults (http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/interactives/business/foreclosure/indexpbc.html - broken link)
bubbleinfo.com - Statistics 2007 - ARM Reset Schedule (http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html - broken link)

[Sunandsand]

Originally Posted by SKB

We have not seen big drops yet because the banks have not started discounting yet. Come the 3rd week in January the banks are going to be forced to write these properties off of their books. When that happens expect major discounts.

Check out this first link to see how many NOD went out between Jan 1 to July 1.
Then check out the ARM re set table. It is very obvious what is about to happen next, the biggest waves of resets have not even happened yet.

PBC mortgage loan defaults (http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/interactives/business/foreclosure/indexpbc.html - broken link)
bubbleinfo.com - Statistics 2007 - ARM Reset Schedule (http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html - broken link)

Exactly. It takes a while for these foreclosures to work their way through the system.

The negatives of too much debt, funny loans, foreclosures, higher food and gas prices, higher property taxes and insurance rates are just starting to build.

[lostbuyer]

even places that didnt have severe price run-ups, will have big price drops due to other areas crashing hard,and making people think twice about touching ANY real estate with a ten foot pole.

[tallrick]

Most people in the Miami area were not even in the US when the last real estate recession hit, so they are in denial. The concept of FALLING real estate prices is something they cannot comprehand. Give it time, prices will have to come down or nothing will sell, and a sale is better than just leaving a place empty to become a crack house.