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View Poll Results: When will the housing Bust end in FL?
By the end of this year 21 8.30%
Spring 2008 28 11.07%
Summer 2008 16 6.32%
Fall 2008 17 6.72%
Winter 2008 12 4.74%
Spring 2009 29 11.46%
Summer 2009 18 7.11%
Fall 2009 11 4.35%
Winter 2009 9 3.56%
Sometime in 2010 38 15.02%
Sometime in 2011 13 5.14%
Sometime in 2012 11 4.35%
2013 or later 30 11.86%
Voters: 253. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-23-2007, 12:59 PM
 
3,842 posts, read 9,418,380 times
Reputation: 3189

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Very good article & on point. When we were thinking of buying in SWFL & the CC area, the realtor we spoke to told us we could offer in the areas of $50k-$75k OFF of asking price & probably get the house & this was 1 1/2 years ago. That was one of the first of many red flags we saw right out the gate in SWFL.

Three + years of inventory now. Will be interesting to see how CC gets itself through this mess.

 
Old 12-23-2007, 04:44 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,553 posts, read 47,262,082 times
Reputation: 13388
Yes. Front page of the Business section of Sunday's New York Times.

Southwestern Florida is in the midst of this gathering storm. It was here that housing prices multiplied first and most exuberantly, and here that the deterioration has unfolded most rapidly. As troubles spill from real estate and construction into other areas of life, this region offers what may be a foretaste of the economic pain awaiting other parts of the country.

Cape Coral is in Lee County, across the Caloosahatchee River from Fort Myers. In the county, a tidal wave of foreclosures is turning some neighborhoods into veritable ghost towns. The county school district recently scrapped plans to build seven new schools over the next two years. Real estate agents and construction workers are scrambling for other lines of work, and abandoning the area. As houses are relinquished to red ink and the elements, break-ins are skyrocketing, yet law enforcement is resigned to making do with existing staff.


Last month, the city eliminated 18 building inspector jobs and 20 other positions within its Department of Community Development. They were no longer needed because construction has all but ceased. The city recently hired a landscaping company to cut overgrown lawns surrounding hundreds of abandoned homes.
 
Old 12-23-2007, 05:05 PM
 
548 posts, read 390,403 times
Reputation: 126
This thing is just getting rolling now. From Tampa-Bradenton-Sarasota down to Naples over to Miami and up through Orlando....pretty much one huge bubble.

Unfortunately we have some folks who are catching a falling knife, thinking things are stabilizing. I read one post of someone who bought a house that "peaked at about $360,000" in an area where the income level is around $40,000 or so!!

They think they got a great deal because they bought at $240,000. Anyone studying the housing blogs knows that the real price will eventually by $150,000-$175,000 or maybe even less. The "$360,000 peak price" is totally worthless as it was based on nothing. But people see a decrease off of these worthless 2005 numbers and don't get that they were meaningless numbers inflated by corrupt lendors and appraisers.

But every bubble deflation has its share of people that overpay on the way down.
 
Old 12-23-2007, 05:19 PM
 
3,842 posts, read 9,418,380 times
Reputation: 3189
The issue I always saw in CC & Ft Myers is what drives people to move there? The professional base is very minimal there. It does exist. BUT, does it exist enough to encourage people who are b/w 18-55 to move there? These are the people who will buy the home & hopefully stay there with their families for an extended amount of time. They will be putting large amounts of money year around into the local economy; needing public services, etc.

There are only so many retirees that are going to move to that area. They only do so much to help the local economy & for those of us who lived there, we know just "how much" that is....

Overspeculation & overbuilding. It is unfortunate, especially for those who do enjoy living on the Cape.

The fee to cross the bridge both ways discouraged us from even wanting to go there for the water park or restuarants, etc when all of it is in Ft Myers....

SWFL should be a case study for the country. Texas was & it rebounded 20 years later...

I just can't fathom why anyone would buy in that area any time soon. Prices will have to drop to get rid of inventory & jobs will have to be produced in that area.
 
Old 12-23-2007, 05:49 PM
 
2,141 posts, read 6,341,704 times
Reputation: 588
I have been posting this for over a year. I have been marked as a doom and gloomer. But I have been here all my life and the job market was build around a never ending dream. Things will get better over time but right now the local economy is failing. Its sad how the area has changed. Cape Coral was a retirement city and jobs were not needed on a large scale. But the retirement people cashed out in large numbers. If you look at city data of the age of the population its not a retirement city anymore. Now its a bedroom community to nowhere with a small number of jobs.Thats not good.
http://www.city-data.com/city/Cape-Coral-Florida.html
 
Old 12-23-2007, 06:45 PM
 
25 posts, read 125,733 times
Reputation: 21
Default Palm Beach County


How is real estate in PBC? I'm thinking about the Loxahatchee area, anyone know this area?
 
Old 12-23-2007, 07:39 PM
LM1
 
Location: NEFL/Chi, IL
833 posts, read 756,882 times
Reputation: 344
There are profoundly difficult issues to come with Florida real estate.
You cannot have endless streams of $200, $300, $500, $750 thousand dollar homes in an economy that offers $9 an hour service industry work. There just aren't that many retirees coming here to sustain what we've seen. The only reason this mess existed at all was because of the "free money" system of home-loan credit, which likely won't return for a generation or two.

While I don't believe that all pricing should be based on conventional income multipliers (particularly with FL where real estate values are based around other things), I do believe that Florida has been grossly overvaluing itself for the past decade and now, the piper is seeking his due.

If there is any bright side, it's that the "reckoning" will likely be just as over-enthusiastic as the bubble, so there will probably be value to be had once the bottom dips itself too low. The fact is, houses are already selling for the sum of their parts and labor, in some places. We will see more of this.

One thing about the Bears- they're usually more likely to remain bearish even when things are looking up than the bulls are to remain bullish when things are turning bad. I don't think the meltdown is going to be quite the everlasting hell people have been predicting, but I don't think it's going to be quite as "easy" as others think.
 
Old 12-23-2007, 07:46 PM
 
1,770 posts, read 7,469,476 times
Reputation: 484
Yes, it's a western area out in the boondocks, north of the more built-up and populated Wellington. It's not for everyone, it is considered a 'redneck' area, lots of land and stuff like that....

Where are you coming from?
 
Old 12-23-2007, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 23,763,988 times
Reputation: 4900
I can only hope this collapse spreads to Hendry county. It is about 4 times overvalued in spots and a hard fall would mean many benefits to keep some of south Florida rural.
 
Old 12-23-2007, 08:19 PM
 
6 posts, read 5,286 times
Reputation: 10
I live in the Avalon Park area (Orlando) and houses are slowly being built in our subdivision.. they are actually selling after sitting, but they arent sitting as long as I would have thought. That's pretty good news, atleast in our area of Orlando.
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