2008 Florida Housing market Thread Jan - Mar (Gainesville, University: relocating, real estate)

[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by crystalblue

yeah, but, for broward to be affordable, and assuming a traditional 3x income, the median price would need to drop to 150-180k. I just dont see that happening...

Broward County, Florida - Selected Economic Characteristics: 2006

I hear your frustration...but lets think about this.

If incomes are stagnant and have been for years, and other costs of living such as gas, insurance, food have gone up, what are the options?

If I have a dollar and you want two dollars for a glass of lemonade only two things can happen...you either keep the lemonade or lower your price to a dollar.

If houses are way more than people can afford, they simply can not sell. There is no choice but for prices to fall to the levels supported by income. How long that will take, no one knows.

[crystalblue]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

I hear your frustration...but lets think about this.

If incomes are stagnant and have been for years, and other costs of living such as gas, insurance, food have gone up, what are the options?

If I have a dollar and you want two dollars for a glass of lemonade only two things can happen...you either keep the lemonade or lower your price to a dollar.

If houses are way more than people can afford, they simply can not sell. There is no choice but for prices to fall to the levels supported by income. How long that will take, no one knows.

unless you can get LOTS of buyers from outside your market,say for example, the people in the towns next yours, we will call them richeuropa and ricolatinoamericano, are having a very good economy, and they just love your lemonade and think its a great deal, they might decide to buy it from you, keeping it out of the reach of the citizens of your town.

the bastardos!

[SANDYHAIR]

I don't think will have to worry about that. won't they have to pay higher taxes now then the people that have lived here . ?

[crystalblue]

Originally Posted by SANDYHAIR

I don't think will have to worry about that. won't they have to pay higher taxes now then the people that have lived here . ?

The rich dont care about stuff like that...

[macguy]

Originally Posted by crystalblue

The rich dont care about stuff like that...

That is what many don't seem to get, some people have money and are not dependent on local economy. I don't care what someone makes at Burger King they aren't supposed to be looking to buy my house. What do people think they are going to buy a million dollar home on Ocean Dr. for $150,000 based on local pay scales?

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by crystalblue

The rich dont care about stuff like that...

the rich make up something like 2% of America. You think there are enough rich people to buy up ALL the inventory we now have? Its just impossible man. Listen, the same crap happened in NYC back in the 80 and 90s and guess what? Prices ended up falling by as much as 50%. If it can happen in NYC, which is far more appealing to the rich and worldly than Florida, you best believe it can happen here.

Originally Posted by macguy

That is what many don't seem to get, some people have money and are not dependent on local economy. I don't care what someone makes at Burger King they aren't supposed to be looking to buy my house. What do people think they are going to buy a million dollar home on Ocean Dr. for $150,000 based on local pay scales?

correction, what people with arguments like yours don't seem to get is, rich people don't want to buy your single family home in a middle family area. Prices are falling, prices will continue to fall and thats that. Go look up NYC in the 80s and 90s. Prices fell as much as 50% and I assure you, when it comes to the rich, they will choose to live and play in NYC far faster than they will in Florida. The majority of homes in any given area is going to be consumed by locals, and for locals to buy the prices must meet the purchasing abilities of the average income. All this happened because of greedy people, who do not understand economics and finance. Unfortunately, these same people will feel it the worst in the end. People can either educate themselves and adjust to todays reality or they can get caught up in the whirl wind.

[macguy]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

the rich make up something like 2% of America. You think there are enough rich people to buy up ALL the inventory we now have? Its just impossible man. Listen, the same crap happened in NYC back in the 80 and 90s and guess what? Prices ended up falling by as much as 50%. If it can happen in NYC, which is far more appealing to the rich and worldly than Florida, you best believe it can happen here.



correction, what people with arguments like yours don't seem to get is, rich people don't want to buy your single family home in a middle family area. Prices are falling, prices will continue to fall and thats that. Go look up NYC in the 80s and 90s. Prices fell as much as 50% and I assure you, when it comes to the rich, they will choose to live and play in NYC far faster than they will in Florida. The majority of homes in any given area is going to be consumed by locals, and for locals to buy the prices must meet the purchasing abilities of the average income. All this happened because of greedy people, who do not understand economics and finance. Unfortunately, these same people will feel it the worst in the end. People can either educate themselves and adjust to todays reality or they can get caught up in the whirl wind.

The house I sold last year on Ocean Dr. was a million two. That ratio stuff doesn't apply everywhere. It doesn't matter what the average local income is the money comes from somewhere else. South Florida is like that and some areas are nicer then others. Also that 2% are not evenly distributed nation wide they tend to be in the same areas so a national statistic doesn't matter if 90% of the 2% live in the same areas.

[Hero]

If you want to talk about Florida in general, then you go with the statistics. If you want to talk about the rich 2%, then you go with, "real estate is local" which implies many factors.

Found an interesting map of broward county: BROWARD & PALM BEACH COUNTY HOME PRICES: An interactive map and detailed look at where you can afford to live in South Florida. -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

At the top of the map, you can click to see "median sales prices" and "median income." For the most part, median sales prices correlate with the median income. There's less of a correlation of homes along the beach. Obviously there are factors other than sales price and local income involved.

[crystalblue]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

the rich make up something like 2% of America. You think there are enough rich people to buy up ALL the inventory we now have? Its just impossible man. Listen, the same crap happened in NYC back in the 80 and 90s and guess what? Prices ended up falling by as much as 50%. If it can happen in NYC, which is far more appealing to the rich and worldly than Florida, you best believe it can happen here.

Thats where the foreign investors come in. There seems to be plenty of them.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Hero

If you want to talk about Florida in general, then you go with the statistics. If you want to talk about the rich 2%, then you go with, "real estate is local" which implies many factors.

Found an interesting map of broward county: BROWARD & PALM BEACH COUNTY HOME PRICES: An interactive map and detailed look at where you can afford to live in South Florida. -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

At the top of the map, you can click to see "median sales prices" and "median income." For the most part, median sales prices correlate with the median income. There's less of a correlation of homes along the beach. Obviously there are factors other than sales price and local income involved.

If you are talking 2006 and before then the only factor that made a difference was the availability of credit. That is what drove up prices in the first place. If that credit was not available then guess what? Those homes would not have outpaced local income, its that simple.

Originally Posted by crystalblue

Thats where the foreign investors come in. There seems to be plenty of them.

seeing as how home sales have declined and inventory is now higher than ever, the foreign investor theory isn't turning out to be true. Also lets not forget that chamber of commerce study that said foreign investment in Florida is WAY down. This foreign invasion just isn't going to happen, people need to let that theory go. They said the same thing in NYC about Europeans, yet here we are with home sales and prices declining in the NYC area

Originally Posted by macguy

The house I sold last year on Ocean Dr. was a million two. That ratio stuff doesn't apply everywhere. It doesn't matter what the average local income is the money comes from somewhere else. South Florida is like that and some areas are nicer then others. Also that 2% are not evenly distributed nation wide they tend to be in the same areas so a national statistic doesn't matter if 90% of the 2% live in the same areas.

ummm then why are homes not selling? Why is brickell avenue one of the hardest hit areas in south florida? Like I said, homes will come down to local prices, period. No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that fact. If you and everyone else's theory were true about all this outside money coming in, s. florida wouldn't be one of the hardest hit areas in the nation. Maybe these rich outsiders didn't get the memo? As I said before, if NYC million dollar condos and co ops aren't selling like before, it sure as heck isn't going to magically happen for south florida. South Florida has far less of a draw than the City does.