2008 Florida Housing market Thread Jan - Mar (credit, income)

[fof5]

States lying?come on you can't hide forclosures,all documented.
I hope they continue to correct and tumble in FL,I am timing building on my lot in Rotonda Lakes with it.
still a ways to go,take chicago area,using no more then 24 % of income towards morgage as the new standards are and more,the average home price there is 285,000,which mean the policeman,fireman and nurse still can't afford to own a home and that is all over,some states won't be corrected much so either incomes go up or the middle class and lower will be forced to live in certain areas.

[fof5]

Marginal Revolution: Was there a Housing Bubble?


some charts to put things in perspective or scare you lol

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by fof5

States lying?come on you can't hide forclosures,all documented.
I hope they continue to correct and tumble in FL,I am timing building on my lot in Rotonda Lakes with it.
still a ways to go,take chicago area,using no more then 24 % of income towards morgage as the new standards are and more,the average home price there is 285,000,which mean the policeman,fireman and nurse still can't afford to own a home and that is all over,some states won't be corrected much so either incomes go up or the middle class and lower will be forced to live in certain areas.

where in my statement did you read anything about foreclosures?

[NY62]

I am in New York and the numbers as of now are pretty close. The deal is New York is a big state and while some areas have seen a bigger decline some have not declined at all. This is not just million dollar homes. Homes in my development have stayed the same while homes in lower income areas have dropped.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by NY62

I am in New York and the numbers as of now are pretty close. The deal is New York is a big state and while some areas have seen a bigger decline some have not declined at all. This is not just million dollar homes. Homes in my development have stayed the same while homes in lower income areas have dropped.

Is anything selling?

[firemed]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

Fine, use your list. It still makes my point. You have to look at the percentage of houses in foreclosure. The pain is wide spread and other states share the blame besides the ones you mentioned. Michigan? Colorado? Ohio? It is all over the US and spreading.

It all comes down to well-paying jobs which can keep prices up. Florida is a big state but the jobs don't pay much. Now with the lay-offs and lack of jobs, Alot of people that moved here can't make the payments. Flippers are out of the game, And banks don't want to lend. I just don't see the numbers getting any lower in the near future.

1 Nevada 34,417 3.376
2 Florida 165,291 2.002
3 Michigan 87,210 1.947
4 California 249,513 1.921
5 Colorado 39,403 1.919
6 Ohio 89,979 1.797
7 Georgia 59,057 1.566
8 Arizona 38,568 1.516
9 Illinois 64,310 1.25
10 Indiana 27,980 1.027

[LM1]

Income is a huge part of it.
I have a really cool old map published by the Federal government in the 1890's that shows land prices around the US.

Most of Florida was still "Under $5 an acre" while places like Cleveland, Gary, IN, Buffalo, NY were in the top tier of pricing. Today, you can buy a house in Buffalo or Gary for a scant fraction of the national average and those places have become some of the least desirable areas in the United States.

Obviously, this an extreme example portrayed over an extraordinary sum of time, but it does illustrate how jobs and demographics exhibit a direct corollary to real estate prices.
If all of a sudden, Boise, Idaho opened some sort of factory that needed 100,000 people and was paying all of them $90 an hour, you can be virtually certain that real estate prices within even far-distant commuting range to Boise would absolutely explode.

Florida is a low-paying service industry economy with limited high paying industry. $10 an hour here is "good".
You simply cannot have a place with an economy like this and think there will be enough retirees to buy up all the $300,000 spec houses. Fundamental economics are in play here.

[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by LM1

Income is a huge part of it.
I have a really cool old map published by the Federal government in the 1890's that shows land prices around the US.

Most of Florida was still "Under $5 an acre" while places like Cleveland, Gary, IN, Buffalo, NY were in the top tier of pricing. Today, you can buy a house in Cleveland or Gary for under $10,000 and they're some of the least desirable areas in the United States.

Obviously, this an extreme example portrayed over an extraordinary sum of time, but it does illustrate how jobs and demographics exhibit a direct corollary to real estate prices.
If all of a sudden, Boise, Idaho opened some sort of factory that needed 100,000 people and was paying all of them $90 an hour, you can be virtually certain that real estate prices within even far-distant commuting range to Boise would absolutely explode.

Florida is a low-paying service industry economy with limited high paying industry. $10 an hour here is "good".
You simply cannot have a place with an economy like this and think there will be enough retirees to buy up all the $300,000 spec houses. Fundamental economics are in play here.

Exactly. There is no other way for this to end. One day prices will match incomes again. Until then we will rent for half what it would cost to carry the same house as a buyer.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

Exactly. There is no other way for this to end. One day prices will match incomes again. Until then we will rent for half what it would cost to carry the same house as a buyer.

Unfortunately, the other big factor is supply and demand. People were building on an anticipated demand that never occured. So yes your absolutely right Fundamental economics will have to come back into play. That is if our general economy can survive this mess.

[fof5]

I built homes for Toll here in SE PA,hundreds of them 500,000 and up,even during the height of things Toll never built specs maybe one but it never was completed before being purchased,there was no inventory problem with them or the Housing market as a whole here,you can drive around and homes still being built not at same pace but still going up,one, the area I live in is a main hub,close to philly,king of Prussia,mainline etc,lots of money and the resale homes sell fast and don't last but 30 to 90 days on market,right in WestChester they don't last but a cpl weeks,I could sell my home tomorrow for more then a hundred grand then I paid in 2000.You get closer to Philly and it's worse but chester county still is a hotspot,that and there were 2 acres minmal for the small builders and private HOs to build a home,big developers got away with cluster homes but even then not 150 by 75 ft lots...FL they were stacking them in along with building before sales,leaves them with a huge inventory...ditto AZ,Nevada,Mich and Ohios troubles are based more on an economy that has been shrinking for years and years jobs leaving not just the housing boom.