[LM1]

Originally Posted by ConeyIsBabe

I bought my property at the height of the real estate market three years ago and now wanna relocate back to Florida. BUT...... I sure don't want to lose $$ and I'd be satisfied to break-even. The question to all you owners of the CRYSTAL BALL is this..... if I can't sell this spring/summer..... will the prices go down more next year ??????????

It depends on where you're looking to buy.
"Conventional wisdom" has been blathering about 1-2 years of declines ahead.
Of course, "conventional wisdom" also used to insist that real estate can never go down. Following the herd is the surest way to wind up going off the cliff. Be aware of what the herd is thinking, understand what they're doing, anticipate their actions as best you can but do not become a part of them. The successful person knows the herd intimately, but operates separate from it.

Legitimate, objective real estate cognoscenti trend towards the line of thinking that maintains we still have a lot of "bottom" to be had in many areas and it could take more than 2 years to get there. I tend to agree with this, but I am willing to change my mind in either direction if circumstances start to shift.

There's a little town on Maryland's eastern shore that was completely drawn up for development as a huge "retirement community". Kill the great old town, build a shiny "new town" and rake in the cash. When the market tanked, the developers abandoned their plans and there that great little town sits, still as pretty and quaint as it was... Unruined.

I'm looking to buy some land there to build my "one day" retirement home and realize that if I'm ever going to get serious about this, present market conditions dictate that now would be the time.
As things stand, everyone in that little town who thought they were going to "get rich" when the developers were lurking is starting to "get real" with their prices... No one is buying. Prices are coming down.
How much longer will I wait before pulling the trigger?
I'm thinking 2 years looks about right, but if prices keep coming down as they are, I'm fully prepared to take my position within 6 months.

[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by macbaloni

As I Watch The News Around The Country People That Have Moved Out Of Florida Old Familiar Faces Have Been Moving Back As There North And South Carolina Moves Have Resulted In Lack Of Jobs And No Income So Now They Have A 1000 Dollar Payment And Bigger House But Working And The Local Wal Mart Or Mickey D's To Pay For It And Brrrrr To All You People Living In Snow Areas Keep Sticking It Out Up There And Wait For The Ever Increasing Winters To Keep Hammering Your Door And Your Pockets As Gas Prices Climb Past 100 $ Dollars A Barrel. Prices In Florida Are Fair Tax Issues Are Being Resolved And Insurance Aint That Bad I Pay 2000 A Year For A 4/2/2 The Reverse Bubble Is Being Created By The Vultures That Keep Waiting Hoping Desperation Will Lead To Big Equity Profits Facts Are That Housing In Florida Is Already Down To Normal And Tax Records Do Not Show True Housing "costs" For All You Realtors That Are House Buyers Which Seems To Be More Than Half The Population. I Have Been In 4 Hurricanes In My Life Direct Hits And With Exception To Andrew If You Follow The Rules Its A No Brainer There Is No Damage Shutters Trimming Trees Etc. But Id Most Certaily Deal With The Hurricanes Than The Blizzards And Twisters Fires Floods And Earth Quakes That The Rest Of The Country Experiences. I Have Been Sitting In 75 Degree Weather For Last 6 Months Lets See Your States Do That Live Where You Want But The Florida Market Is The Place To Live More So Than California Where Prices Are Truley Inflated And Lets Face It Who Want To Dig My Car Out Of The Snow Everytime I Have To Go To Work. Floridas Real Estate Market Will Recover Because It Has Jobs, A Strong Local Economy, And Great Weather. Insurance Has Already Dropped Across The State Both Home Owners And Auto Double Homestead On Taxes And Currently Sales Has Been Picking Up In Housing In My Area Keep Waiting To See What Happens And Youll Be Waiting As Prices Start To Climb Again Stop Blogging Like Florida Is Suffering Because Its The Real Estate Investors That Are Foreclosing Not The Majority Of Homeowners. And If Homeowners Selling There Homes In Florida Would Stop Lowering The Prices Of Your Homes To See If Its Going To Help Sell Your House And Those Listening To Those Suggesting To Price Your House Below Comps You People Are Causing The Deflating House Values As Comps Are Pulled And People Are Readjusting There Prices To Meet Your Lowered House Prices Your Are Just Falling Into The Trap Of Savy Investors That Are Tryin To Get You To Lower Your House Prices Low Enough For Them To Buy Your House For Close To What They Need To Rent To Cover The Mortgages Keep Firm On Your Prices As A Group And Wait If You Lower You Are Just Part Of The Problem People Need A Place To Live And When They Sell House With Equity That Pay Down On Next House. And Move Up The Ladder Everyone Does It And You Start From The Bottom And Move Up But "some Greedy People Want To Wait Then Let Them Wait Keep Firm On Your Prices And When The Prices Dont Go Down Anymore They Will Get Sick Of Renting And Make A Decision. Soon The Rental Market Will Stabilize When It Does Then Rents Will Increase Since The Demand To Rent Is So High It Is Inevitable And Then Housing Will Be Better Purchase Again. Housing Is A Tax Write Off Rent Ends With No Gains At All Maybe Your Security Deposit Back And Housing Builds Credit You Can Do What You Want To Your Property And Will Eventually Make Money In The Long Term Invest Stop Watching Tlc And Get Real Buy A House Because You Like The Area Good Job And You Want A Roof Over Your Families Head Stop Speculating Like You Are All Some Kind Of Investors Because You Know You Aint Living In Some No Town Usa With A 100 K Mortage On A 3000 Sgft House With Pool And Finding A Job And Visa Versa You Ain Living Near A Major Metropolis With A 3000 Sgft House And Paying 100 K For It Get Real Get Down To Earth Start Making Decisions Before This Whole Country Ends Up In The Toilet.
My House Costs Me 3000 A Month We Make About 6000 In North Carolina Id Make 2000 A Month Total And Pay 1000 Gee Let Me Do The Real Math Get Real!

Wow, I'm glad I had a cold beverage to enjoy while I worked my way through this post.

Since you think prices and rents are poised to go up I suppose you will be buying lots of Florida properties. Best of luck. Those "savvy investors" now have a 2-5 year inventory of houses to choose from, depending on which part of Florida they are in.

Since lenders are not giving any more funny loans out, I am not exactly sure where all the money will come from...nor do I understand how the consumer who is tapped out will afford to pay prices 5-7 times income for housing, along with higher gas, food, insurance, property taxes...while real wages have fallen since 2000.... nor do I understand how the fundamentals that worked from 1900-2000 no longer apply....nor do I get how it makes sense to pay $300,000 for a house that I can rent for $1000/month......but whatever....

Me? I think I will just stick with the advisers that got me to sell in 2005 for a nice profit, rent a similar house for 40% of the costs of carrying it as a buyer, buy gold at $400/ounce., get out of the stock market 9 months ago at 14000 and go into a 5% CD. Those same folks tell me Florida real estate will go down for the next 2-3 years and then be flat for maybe a decade after that.

But to each their own. Good luck with your theory.

[fof5]

There is so much more to it,the biggest being the 08 elections,I don't expect much to change one way or the other,I believe we are closer to the bottom though.
I think over-all housing in Fl and everywhere else will continue to be sluggish,jobs will become harder to get,growth will come to a stand-still.Things are a mess top to bottom and untill we know which direction and who will be taking us there becomes clear,i wouldn't expect anything to improve in a big way,housing markets new and resale included.

IMO this mess was Greenspans to start complicated and reved up by the incompetence in the whitehouse,Bush will go down as the republicans version of Jimmy ...was in way over his head and will leave the next president a complete cluster F to deal with.This comming from a card carrying republican,who will be casting his vote for Obama,It is a shame all my party had to offer was more of the same with Mccain.

So in short don't look for any miracles anywhere untill the elections are behind us.

[Ralph60606060]

Hi, can anyone give me some insight about Port St. Lucie, going there in mid March to check out the housing market. Any suggestions?? Ralph

[SKB]

Yeah, run the other way, PSL is T-O-A-S-T.

A town loaded with REO properties, values will drop for YEARS the decline has barely begun over there.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by macbaloni

As I Watch The News Around The Country People That Have Moved Out Of Florida Old Familiar Faces Have Been Moving Back As There North And South Carolina Moves Have Resulted In Lack Of Jobs And No Income So Now They Have A 1000 Dollar Payment And Bigger House But Working And The Local Wal Mart Or Mickey D's To Pay For It And Brrrrr To All You People Living In Snow Areas Keep Sticking It Out Up There And Wait For The Ever Increasing Winters To Keep Hammering Your Door And Your Pockets As Gas Prices Climb Past 100 $ Dollars A Barrel. Prices In Florida Are Fair Tax Issues Are Being Resolved And Insurance Aint That Bad I Pay 2000 A Year For A 4/2/2 The Reverse Bubble Is Being Created By The Vultures That Keep Waiting Hoping Desperation Will Lead To Big Equity Profits Facts Are That Housing In Florida Is Already Down To Normal And Tax Records Do Not Show True Housing "costs" For All You Realtors That Are House Buyers Which Seems To Be More Than Half The Population. I Have Been In 4 Hurricanes In My Life Direct Hits And With Exception To Andrew If You Follow The Rules Its A No Brainer There Is No Damage Shutters Trimming Trees Etc. But Id Most Certaily Deal With The Hurricanes Than The Blizzards And Twisters Fires Floods And Earth Quakes That The Rest Of The Country Experiences. I Have Been Sitting In 75 Degree Weather For Last 6 Months Lets See Your States Do That Live Where You Want But The Florida Market Is The Place To Live More So Than California Where Prices Are Truley Inflated And Lets Face It Who Want To Dig My Car Out Of The Snow Everytime I Have To Go To Work. Floridas Real Estate Market Will Recover Because It Has Jobs, A Strong Local Economy, And Great Weather. Insurance Has Already Dropped Across The State Both Home Owners And Auto Double Homestead On Taxes And Currently Sales Has Been Picking Up In Housing In My Area Keep Waiting To See What Happens And Youll Be Waiting As Prices Start To Climb Again Stop Blogging Like Florida Is Suffering Because Its The Real Estate Investors That Are Foreclosing Not The Majority Of Homeowners. And If Homeowners Selling There Homes In Florida Would Stop Lowering The Prices Of Your Homes To See If Its Going To Help Sell Your House And Those Listening To Those Suggesting To Price Your House Below Comps You People Are Causing The Deflating House Values As Comps Are Pulled And People Are Readjusting There Prices To Meet Your Lowered House Prices Your Are Just Falling Into The Trap Of Savy Investors That Are Tryin To Get You To Lower Your House Prices Low Enough For Them To Buy Your House For Close To What They Need To Rent To Cover The Mortgages Keep Firm On Your Prices As A Group And Wait If You Lower You Are Just Part Of The Problem People Need A Place To Live And When They Sell House With Equity That Pay Down On Next House. And Move Up The Ladder Everyone Does It And You Start From The Bottom And Move Up But "some Greedy People Want To Wait Then Let Them Wait Keep Firm On Your Prices And When The Prices Dont Go Down Anymore They Will Get Sick Of Renting And Make A Decision. Soon The Rental Market Will Stabilize When It Does Then Rents Will Increase Since The Demand To Rent Is So High It Is Inevitable And Then Housing Will Be Better Purchase Again. Housing Is A Tax Write Off Rent Ends With No Gains At All Maybe Your Security Deposit Back And Housing Builds Credit You Can Do What You Want To Your Property And Will Eventually Make Money In The Long Term Invest Stop Watching Tlc And Get Real Buy A House Because You Like The Area Good Job And You Want A Roof Over Your Families Head Stop Speculating Like You Are All Some Kind Of Investors Because You Know You Aint Living In Some No Town Usa With A 100 K Mortage On A 3000 Sgft House With Pool And Finding A Job And Visa Versa You Ain Living Near A Major Metropolis With A 3000 Sgft House And Paying 100 K For It Get Real Get Down To Earth Start Making Decisions Before This Whole Country Ends Up In The Toilet.
My House Costs Me 3000 A Month We Make About 6000 In North Carolina Id Make 2000 A Month Total And Pay 1000 Gee Let Me Do The Real Math Get Real!

Is this Lawrence Yun?

Lawrence, someone from the NAR should have told you to never spend 1/2 of your income on housing.

Someone else should also have told you to not type in all CAPS and to use paragraphs to easy reading.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by LM1

It depends on where you're looking to buy.
"Conventional wisdom" has been blathering about 1-2 years of declines ahead.
Of course, "conventional wisdom" also used to insist that real estate can never go down. Following the herd is the surest way to wind up going off the cliff. Be aware of what the herd is thinking, understand what they're doing, anticipate their actions as best you can but do not become a part of them. The successful person knows the herd intimately, but operates separate from it.

Legitimate, objective real estate cognoscenti trend towards the line of thinking that maintains we still have a lot of "bottom" to be had in many areas and it could take more than 2 years to get there. I tend to agree with this, but I am willing to change my mind in either direction if circumstances start to shift.

There's a little town on Maryland's eastern shore that was completely drawn up for development as a huge "retirement community". Kill the great old town, build a shiny "new town" and rake in the cash. When the market tanked, the developers abandoned their plans and there that great little town sits, still as pretty and quaint as it was... Unruined.

I'm looking to buy some land there to build my "one day" retirement home and realize that if I'm ever going to get serious about this, present market conditions dictate that now would be the time.
As things stand, everyone in that little town who thought they were going to "get rich" when the developers were lurking is starting to "get real" with their prices... No one is buying. Prices are coming down.
How much longer will I wait before pulling the trigger?
I'm thinking 2 years looks about right, but if prices keep coming down as they are, I'm fully prepared to take my position within 6 months.

Great post, and I am in 100% agreement with you. I have never "followed the herd." But like you, I know what the herd is thinking and look for my opportunity. I'm not an investor, but I like to make a good deal when I buy and sell my home - I have had several over the years, and bought and sold in every kind of market and have ALWAYS come out ahead.

While I can agree that prices may still be coming down in some areas, I also think it's closer to the bottom in other areas, while some areas have NEVER lost value and are still in demand. I study my local market a lot, as we are now about to make another deal. I have never worried about selling at the absolute "top" of the market nor buying at the absolute "low" - I am happy to have at least hit it on the way up or down.

There are opportunities in EVERY kind of market, but one must study, research and then go for it.

Good luck to all who are hoping to buy or sell this year!

[heydade]

I agree with SKB....tons of foreclosures...houses half built. There are nice areas...but PSL is my opinion had way too much growth way too fast. Someone even mentioned that their plumbing infrastructure was never updated to handle the very large number of homes that werer built and as a result, the water pressure is very low in some areas. If I were you....I would venture up north 20 miles to Stuart...much much nicer.

[outsider1]

Originally Posted by Ralph60606060

Hi, can anyone give me some insight about Port St. Lucie, going there in mid March to check out the housing market. Any suggestions?? Ralph

Over the past few months this board had seen a couple of very extensive and heated discussions about all sorts of aspects pertaining to PSL's real estate. Do yourself a favor and study them well, before your visit! This area is a big question mark, so you need to become a very educated on the subject, before making any decisions!

[Dave_n_Tenn]

Originally Posted by heydade

I agree with SKB....tons of foreclosures...houses half built. There are nice areas...but PSL is my opinion had way too much growth way too fast. Someone even mentioned that their plumbing infrastructure was never updated to handle the very large number of homes that werer built and as a result, the water pressure is very low in some areas. If I were you....I would venture up north 20 miles to Stuart...much much nicer.

ooops...... er ... um.... Stuart is south of PSL.