[snowtired14]

Right now, Florida is in a building boom and it's a sellers market, terrible time to buy. We're getting close to the time we planned to move down to SWFL, and we're suddenly almost priced out of the market. How much longer do you think this bubble has, before it pops? Wish we could have bought a few years ago, but such is life.

[OTownKnight]

There's no way of telling. If it were a similar cycle as the 2004-2008 boom then we'd probably be looking at a 2019 or 2020 "bubble pop" at the latest, but this market is not propped up on bad loans like the last time around (not right now at least).

Part of the reason for the high prices is artificial due to everyone riding the wave of the steady appreciation over the past few years, and another part is due to the rapid population growth Florida has been experiencing again. When you have more buyers than homes available, prices have to go up.

Who knows when the market will peak again, but I'm sure now is a better time to buy than this time next year. There's no signs of the FL housing market slowing within the next 12 months unless something extremely drastic happens.

[LKJ1988]

I hope soon that way my prop taxes go back down.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by snowtired14

Right now, Florida is in a building boom and it's a sellers market, terrible time to buy. We're getting close to the time we planned to move down to SWFL, and we're suddenly almost priced out of the market. How much longer do you think this bubble has, before it pops? Wish we could have bought a few years ago, but such is life.

It could last quite a bit longer, many areas still haven't broke above previous records in Florida, which I'm sure will happen unless something major happens like WW3.

[chopchop0]

Wait until we start seeing interest rates move up again, that'll start deflating the bubble a little bit

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by snowtired14

Right now, Florida is in a building boom and it's a sellers market, terrible time to buy. We're getting close to the time we planned to move down to SWFL, and we're suddenly almost priced out of the market. How much longer do you think this bubble has, before it pops? Wish we could have bought a few years ago, but such is life.

Prices are rising because people want to move to FL. No bubble, just the result of supply and demand.

The last bubble was caused by far more than demand and is unlikely to ever occur again in our lifetimes. At some point they may flatten or drop a little, but not much and not any time soon. Not likely to stop growing until the last of the Baby Boomers have retired. Of course we also have money flowing in from other Countries, so don't expect a drop.

[aridon]

The markets have started to crest in many areas of SE FL. Can't speak to other areas though but here they are near highs and likely don't have a ton of room to move higher. You're starting to see the prices in the expensive areas cap a bit, the areas north have exploded and now time on the market is starting to creep up before selling. Probably have another year, year and a half and things will start lingering on the market in an unhealthy manner and it will be the start of worse things to come.

Every area is different though.

Oh and it's a bubble. The cause of the movement up isn't sustainable. Baby boomers moving here are limited quantity and the later batches have much less money than the earlier ones. This will be the bigger issue as many of them are priced out of the market already and you can see them starting to look north or at much smaller units to stay under budget. Rising interest rates are also going to cool things off in all but the hottest, sustainable markets but there is still room there before it begins to impact things.

Don't forget as a whole baby boomers aren't especially healthy either.
http://healthland.time.com/2013/02/0...st-generation/

The two combined (lack of money and health) will completely crash FL real estate over the next 2 decades. I'd guess that the current run has some legs left but appreciation is going to have a lid on it in many areas. You'll know when it is starting for your area when time on the market starts to get longer and longer.

First the expensive places will tend to linger longer on the market. They are usually the first to feel it. You'll see condos and small sq/ft homes demand go up as people snatch up affordable stuff that is under their max budget. Then you'll start to see everything just start to take longer in general to sell. This is when you know the market is trending towards unhealthy and into a buyers market.

In the end condos almost always get hit the hardest in sell offs. They are a dime a dozen and tend to be over built so it is easier to have a supply problem when the market turns.

Areas with jobs and people actually living there that can afford it will do better than the small bedroom communities that rose up to service snow birds.

FL has always been a boom and bust real estate area. The trend will continue and history will repeat itself.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by chopchop0

Wait until we start seeing interest rates move up again, that'll start deflating the bubble a little bit

I think the big indicator will be when you'll be able to get a home loan with stated income etc

[clearlevel]

Originally Posted by snowtired14

Right now, Florida is in a building boom and it's a sellers market, terrible time to buy. We're getting close to the time we planned to move down to SWFL, and we're suddenly almost priced out of the market. How much longer do you think this bubble has, before it pops? Wish we could have bought a few years ago, but such is life.

I think it'll keep going up. There are plenty of people buying and houses are still being sold. Once the minimum wage rises and people are making more money and the dollar devalues even further, then these high prices will become the new normal.

Eventually, there will be a recession within the next 10 to 15 years. It's part of the business cycle. It's normal. That's when certain homes (not all), will go down.

However, it's possible that in some parts of Florida, like Miami, where they can't build further out from the Everglades, it could become like Los Angeles, where there is a scarcity, so the people that own the homes will keep their homes and prices might go up to half a million to $1,00,000 dollar homes. There won't be enough homes being built. Then people will just be renting. But, I don't think that'll happen.

[chopchop0]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I think the big indicator will be when you'll be able to get a home loan with stated income etc

Lol yeah, that's another possibility...banks start falling back into their old ways before the great recession