[lostbuyer]

we will reach bottom after the depression at which point who cares about real estate.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

OK, I can live with that.
I was just wondering how some of these people that say we won't hit bottom till 2009, 2010, 2011 etc. will figure out when we are there.

Those are minimum conditions based on the outlook for the fundamentals, economy-wide, real estate market, and regional/local conditions.

As for the macro-economy, are we entering a cyclical recession or a secular depression or something in between? Will it affect the entire population or only certain segments? Certainly we won't have a clear idea in 2008, maybe in 2009 or 2010.

As for the real estate market, as mentioned, mortgage payment resets in significant amounts are still in the pipeline. The particular market that I look at is polluted with short sales and foreclosures from people who bought in 2005. These are not fringe neighborhoods. The banks are sitting on these short sales, not responding to offers. Why? What about resets from those who bought in 2006, 2007? It can take 6-12 months or more to process a short sale or a foreclosure. In this context, combined with the macroeconomic uncertainties, who knows where the market is right now, except for asking prices and the occasional sale (most sales I see are for the symbolic $1, inter-family transfers) and who knows where the market is or where it is heading?

On a local level, to be sure, asking prices in some locations are holding up better than in others, but again, under current macroeconomic and real estate market conditions, even what is considered a good neighborhood today could tank in the next few years.

The outlook for 2009-2010 is cloudy at best. Who knows after that?

[lostbuyer]

Originally Posted by bale002

Those are minimum conditions based on the outlook for the fundamentals, economy-wide, real estate market, and regional/local conditions.

As for the macro-economy, are we entering a cyclical recession or a secular depression or something in between? Will it affect the entire population or only certain segments? Certainly we won't have a clear idea in 2008, maybe in 2009 or 2010.

As for the real estate market, as mentioned, mortgage payment resets in significant amounts are still in the pipeline. The particular market that I look at is polluted with short sales and foreclosures from people who bought in 2005. These are not fringe neighborhoods. The banks are sitting on these short sales, not responding to offers. Why? What about resets from those who bought in 2006, 2007? It can take 6-12 months or more to process a short sale or a foreclosure. In this context, combined with the macroeconomic uncertainties, who knows where the market is right now, except for asking prices and the occasional sale (most sales I see are for the symbolic $1, inter-family transfers) and who knows where the market is or where it is heading?

On a local level, to be sure, asking prices in some locations are holding up better than in others, but again, under current macroeconomic and real estate market conditions, even what is considered a good neighborhood today could tank in the next few years.

The outlook for 2009-2010 is cloudy at best. Who knows after that?

agreed,also there is reports coming from orlando and around the country about people not paying their mortgage for up to a year,banks not foreclosing on them,banks have yet to claim their losses,my guess is they are so leveraged many are insolvent at this point,so if regulators force them to write off their losses,many banks would disappear overnight.I guess they're waiting on the "bailout" which isnt gonna happen,not enough money to cover it even if they wanted to,unless they want $20 gallon of milk.checkout mr. mortgage on you tube,look at the charts from the fed,lots of negative equity on PRIME loans ,expect a massive amount of people to walk,bankruptcy is the new black..

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

I was just wondering how some of these people that say we won't hit bottom till 2009, 2010, 2011 etc. will figure out when we are there.

We'll hit bottom about 6 months after you stop posting here.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Muggy

We'll hit bottom about 6 months after you stop posting here.

Have a few too many today?

Well you failed miserably at humor if that was your intention.

Come to think of it, if you were intending to use some sort of logic and actually have an answer to the question, you failed there also.

[Ten]

Originally Posted by Muggy

We'll hit bottom about 6 months after you stop posting here.

Heh.

Calling bottoms is a fool's game. But we're certainly not there yet. Banks are hiding so much undeclared bad paper you almost can't count it -- wish I could claim my car was worth what I paid for it new, 10 years ago. The ARM's race hasn't really started yet. And there's so much debt and junk in the monetary system they say the Fed may not be able to cover it all.

Reality sucks. This is what more than half a century of simply printing money does. Thanks Fed.

[lostbuyer]

Originally Posted by Muggy

We'll hit bottom about 6 months after you stop posting here.

LMAO!! I see you have that HBB humor muggy

[bale002]

The banks are sitting on these short sales, not responding to offers. Why? What about resets from those who bought in 2006, 2007? It can take 6-12 months or more to process a short sale or a foreclosure.

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

agreed ... reports coming from Orlando and around the country about people not paying their mortgage for up to a year, banks not foreclosing on them, banks have yet to claim their losses, my guess is they are so leveraged many are insolvent at this point, so if regulators force them to write off their losses, many banks would disappear overnight. I guess they're waiting on the "bailout" which isn't gonna happen .... lots of negative equity on PRIME loans, expect a massive amount of people to walk, bankruptcy is the new black.

Thanks for attempting to answer my question. I have the same guess: lenders are sitting on short sales, not foreclosing and not even responding to offers, because they are waiting for bail-out legislation. I am seeing attempted short sales where the mortgage is worth upwards of $100,000 more than the current asking price on the attempted short sale and the bank simply does not respond to concrete offers for months, months, months at a time ... and not just in one case in one fringe neighborhood, but in several good neighborhoods across one of the best towns.

Anyone else see this type of thing and have an explanation?

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by bale002

Thanks for attempting to answer my question. I have the same guess: lenders are sitting on short sales, not foreclosing and not even responding to offers, because they are waiting for bail-out legislation. I am seeing attempted short sales where the mortgage is worth upwards of $100,000 more than the current asking price on the attempted short sale and the bank simply does not respond to concrete offers for months, months, months at a time ... and not just in one case in one fringe neighborhood, but in several good neighborhoods across one of the best towns.

Anyone else see this type of thing and have an explanation?

RE agent friend of mine had to get a lawyer to force through a short sale. He told me if it wasn't for the lawyer, the bank would have continued to ignored him.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

RE agent friend of mine had to get a lawyer to force through a short sale. He told me if it wasn't for the lawyer, the bank would have continued to ignored him.

Can't give you any more rep, but I love these kinds of real stories, beats the hell out of "professional" surveys and statistics and "they said" on television and in the newspapers.

Hopefully others will keep it coming.

Ask your agent friend why he thinks that the bank ignored him and move its butt only on threat of litigation.